The 2023 fantasy season has ended, and now it’s time to reflect on player production and tweak our rankings as we head into the offseason. The wide receiver position came with a number of surprises in this rookie class, as we saw players like Puka Nacua and Tank Dell far exceed expectations. Others, like Quentin Johnston and Jonathan Mingo, have seen their fantasy stock plummet.
When looking at rookie production, it’s typically most important to look at the second half of the season, as the rookies have had time to get their feet wet, grow accustomed to the offensive playbook, and often begin seeing a higher snap percentage. One rookie wide receiver who saw an increased role later in the season and finished on an absolute heater was Rashee Rice. On KeepTradeCut, over the past three months, Rice has jumped from the WR49 all the way to the WR22 in Dynasty. And rightfully so, when we look at his numbers in more detail.
Rookie Numbers
Over the past six weeks, Rashee has averaged 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, 86 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. This was good for an average of 19.6 PPR points per game. Only four players beat that FPPG mark over the 2023 season: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
So, how does Rashee Rice’s rookie season compare to other rookie wide receivers in the past? I plugged Rashee’s rookie numbers (102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 yards) through 16 games into Stathead.com to see how many rookies put up similar or better numbers. Since 2000, only ten other rookie WRs have managed to put up the numbers Rashee has produced. Those players are Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., Puka Nacua, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Michael Thomas, Jaylen Waddle, Eddie Royal, and Garrett Wilson. This is some pretty incredible company. Only two of these ten guys failed to build off their Year 1 success (Michael Clayton and Eddie Royal). Puka is also a rookie, but at the rate he’s produced in Year 1, I’d say it’s nearly impossible he ends up as a bust.
Rice wasn’t seeing consistent snaps early on in the year but was always a producer when he saw the field, as HC Andy Reid showed he loved drawing up plays for his young wideout. Rashee had a target rate (targets divided by routes run) of 27.8%, which is currently 10th overall this year. He’s also 2nd in the NFL in red zone targets and 6th in fantasy points per route run (FPPRR).
College Production
Now that we have a full 16 NFL games of data to analyze, Rice’s college profile can more or less be taken with a grain of salt. Still, it’s worth mentioning that he was not considered one of the top wide receiver prospects in this 2023 class coming out of college. Rice stayed all four years at SMU and didn’t have a true “breakout” season until his senior year, where he posted a stat line of 96-1355-10 through twelve games.
Heading into the NFL draft, scouts’ biggest concerns with Rice were his route running, consistency, and lack of physicality. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Rashee had a 79 Production Score and an 84 Athleticism Score, giving him a Total Score of 83, which was surprisingly ranked 3rd in this WR draft class. Rashee had a solid NFL Combine, pushing him up to the 2nd round, where he was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs.
Red Flags
The biggest knock on Rashee’s rookie season is the fact that he saw a ton of manufactured touches. His average depth of target (ADoT) for the year is just 4.7 yards, ranked as the WR96 overall. There are concerns that Rashee can’t get open on his own, and his numbers are bound to regress. It is certainly a valid concern, but we’ve seen plenty of wide receivers find success on “manufactured touches” throughout their career. A couple of names that come to mind are Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel. Simply put, if you’re elite, your team will find ways to get you the ball. That’s not a bad thing. Sure, the ADoT numbers here are incredibly low- lower than most tight ends- but Andy Reid’s teams don’t follow the status quo. And Rice is tied to arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.
The one other red flag has been his drop percentage. Rashee struggled with this a bit in college as well. As a rookie, Rice has had seven drops already (7.3% drop rate), which leads the NFL. The Kansas City pass catchers have struggled mightily in this department, which has played into Mahomes’ down year. Drops are not something we need to be overly concerned with from a fantasy perspective, but it’s something Rice will need to improve upon in order to keep the same level of trust he’s had from this coaching staff moving forward.
Conclusion
Rashee Rice should be valued as a Top 24 Dynasty WR and an asset that both contenders and rebuilders should seek to buy. He’s the clear WR1 on an elite offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Yes, I understand Kansas City has been wildly underwhelming this season. But we’ve seen a large enough sample size from Mahomes not to overreact.
KeepTradeCut has Rice ranked as the WR22 overall, which I think is right in line with where he should be valued. I could argue Rice should be ranked ahead of DK Metcalf at this point (ranked the WR18), but that’s about it. He’s being valued slightly above a late 2024-1st, which I believe is fair. As we get closer to rookie drafts and league mates grow anxious to get their “guy”, if you can sell a late 2024-1st (1.10-1.12) for Rice, I would strongly consider this, regardless of team build. Barring injury, I think Rice will be a WR2 in fantasy for years to come and is one of the safer WR assets to own.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
