J.J. McCarthy | Michigan 6’2 219 lbs. January 20, 2003 (21)
J.J. McCarthy was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, becoming the 5th quarterback and 10th overall player in the 2024 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
J.J. McCarthy started 2 full seasons and played sparingly as a freshman. He threw for 2,719 and 2,851 passing yards as a sophomore and junior, respectively, and threw 22 touchdowns in each season as well. J.J. never has thrown more than 5 interceptions in a season, but he’s also never touched anywhere close to 400 passing attempts in one year.
It’s important to note that J.J. was an extremely young college football player and surrounded by one of the most elite rosters in college football history. J.J. was the captain of an elite rushing attack that featured tons of NFL talent on both the line and in the backfield. Because of this, J.J.’s opportunities to accrue gaudy passing statistics remained limited.
FILM
Here’s an excerpt of my breakdown of J.J. McCarthy from the DFF Declassified Rookie Draft Survival Guide:
“To put it bluntly, I found McCarthy’s tape to be pretty mundane. I don’t really think his arm is all that high-upside like many people seem to think. Despite showing some flashes of an ability to make high level throws into tight windows, he generally struggles with keeping consistent accuracy in and outside the pocket. I don’t view McCarthy as a high-level processor yet either. He does sometimes get in good rhythm from the pocket, and I do think he has the capacity to play with timing and anticipation. However, he often struggles to read and react quick enough when moving through his progressions, something that will only get harder in the NFL.
J.J. does have some merit to his first round consideration, however. I do think he’s a pretty good athlete, and he’s great at avoiding pressure and extending plays, which is something he does pretty regularly on film. His high-level on the run throws are quite impressive as well, although as I stated earlier consistency is still an issue for McCarthy.
As a whole, I definitely can understand why people are trying to talk themselves into McCarthy as a top-10 draft pick. There are definitely moments on film that indicate that if McCarthy can take the next steps in his development, he could end up being an excellent NFL passer. However, those moments aren’t enough for me personally to confidently say that McCarthy will be able to find success against NFL defenses.
I could see McCarthy thriving in an ideal situation as he does have some impressive tools, but I simply don’t see him as someone who will be able to elevate an NFL offense to a significant degree.”
ATHLETIC TESTING
At the combine, J.J. McCarthy measured 6’2.5” and 219 lbs.
J.J. clocked in a 6.82 3-cone and a 4.23 20-yd shuttle at the combine. He also had an impressive showing in throwing drills. He followed that up with another impressive showing in throwing drills at his pro day.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
J.J. McCarthy was selected with the 10th-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings.
Not only did the Vikings make J.J. a top-10 selection, they actually traded up to do so. This indicates added confidence in their evaluation of J.J. and bodes well for his value insulation in fantasy. While I had some hope that the Vikings had enough conviction to trade up to 4 or 5 to take J.J., this is still a great outcome for McCarthy as far as draft capital investment is concerned.
Not only that, but J.J. just secured the popular favorite QB landing spot in this year’s carousel. Once he takes over the starting job, McCarthy will be throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, all who are very high-end options for their roles. Aaron Jones is also a dynamic threat out of the backfield who Jordan Love leaned on heavily through his development in Green Bay. Not to mention, the Vikings also already have a few strong pieces in place on their offensive line such as Christian Darrisaw.
It’s hard, I’d argue almost impossible, to imagine a better draft outcome for J.J. McCarthy. While I have my doubts about him as a player, Minnesota is the ideal landing spot in almost every aspect from coaching to personnel.
FANTASY INSIGHTS
I have J.J. McCarthy ranked as the #4 QB in this class for projected future dynasty value. J.J. will be an interesting case study for the “nurture versus nature” debate.
While I don’t believe J.J. has the upside to be a difference-making force as a passer, I do trust the strength of the Minnesota roster to provide J.J. with plenty of fantasy relevance not too different from the way Brock Purdy has risen to top 3 round startup ADP thanks to the stacked supporting cast and elite play caller he has in San Francisco. Thus, there’s a real chance J.J. should be your QB2.
However, I always side on talent over situation and have faith that in the long run, it’s still best to bet on players rather than their circumstances. Thus, J.J. will go no higher than my QB4 with the way things played out in this NFL draft.
J.J. McCarthy should go off the board in rookie drafts in the mid 1st round.
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