Past Production
After an injury-plagued 2018, fantasy owners were anticipating a huge bounce-back year from Jack Doyle in 2019. This did not come to fruition though, as Andrew Luck decided to retire a few weeks before the regular season. After some short-lived early season success, the Colts’ passing attack succumbed to injuries and Jacoby Brissett’s limitations as a passer. Doyle was included in these struggles, as he posted a career-low 59.7 percent catch rate.
Doyle is, however, only two seasons removed from posting an 80-reception, 690-yard Pro Bowl season. One promising statistic from last season is that Doyle was on the field for 74.1 percent of his team’s offensive snaps. This is no surprise, as Doyle is a strong blocker in the run game. Additionally, he was targeted on an average of one out of every five pass routes he ran last season. This is due in part to the team’s injuries at WR last season, but also suggests that he is a valued and integral part of the offense. He and teammate T.Y. Hilton are stalwarts in this offense, and both will continue to be relied upon for the offense to keep the chains moving.
2020 OUTLOOK
Now enter Philip Rivers, the man whose TEs have averaged 123 targets per season over the last 15 years. As the embodiment of a living statue, the new starting QB for the Colts has a penchant for checking down to TEs and RBs over the last decade, which includes a 2016 season in which he targeted his TE 148 times. His offensive coordinator in San Diego that season: none other than his new head coach, Frank Reich.
In two seasons as the head coach in Indianapolis, Reich’s offense has thrown more TDs to TEs (28) than any other team in the league. With the oft-injured Trey Burton and the under-utilized Mo Alie-Cox as the only other TEs on the current roster, it is evident that Jack Doyle will be the beneficiary of an increased target share this season. I think he will easily put up TE1 numbers.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
History has shown us that good TEs can be effective and produce well into their 30s. Indianapolis signed Doyle to a three-year, $21 million extension near the end of last season — a strong show of support and a telling gesture regarding the way the front office views Doyle’s value to the team. Doyle turned 30 in May, but Indianapolis feels he can produce for a few more seasons.
It is, however, difficult to predict what the future of the Colts’ QB situation looks like. After watching last season, it appears Rivers is in the twilight hours of the remaining time in his career. That being said, young QBs also tend to rely on their TEs heavily as their primary check-down option. If Jacob Eason or a rookie-to-be-drafted becomes the heir apparent to Rivers, Doyle should still be in a good situation for production. Although he will never beat anyone with his athleticism, Doyle’s consistent hands, reliable route running, history of production, and new QB make him my favorite TE sleeper for the 2020 season and beyond.
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