Internal Value vs Trade Value

In Dynasty fantasy football, every player has a trade value and an internal value. Trade value refers to how the market (your league mates) view a particular asset and what kind of return you could get on said asset if you sell them. Internal value refers to the return on investment you could get by keeping a player on your roster rather than trading them away. In today’s article, I want to discuss a few players in Dynasty today that have a higher internal value than trade value; in other words, it makes more sense to hold onto these assets until the market becomes more bullish on these guys.

I won’t give you names of elite veterans like Davante Adams or Cooper Kupp. On a contending team, we all know it makes more sense to hold onto these assets, as the “age discount” must be applied if you want to ship them away. Instead, the guys I’ll be covering are players I feel have a decent chance of seeing a spike in value or at least will outperform the assets your league mates are willing to pay for them this off-season. 

Javonte Williams

In Week 4 against the Raiders last year, Williams had one of the worst injuries imaginable for a running back. He tore his ACL, LCL, and PLC, sending him to the IR for the remainder of the season and putting his future effectiveness as a rusher in doubt. It’s still undetermined whether Javonte will be ready for the start of the 2023 season, but Sean Payton and the Broncos are optimistic about his rehab progress thus far.

The injury concerns, paired with the addition of a larger RB in Samaje Perine, have many dynasty owners shying away from Javonte. The fear is that he’ll never return to his former self, and even if he does, Perine could eat away at the goalline work. If you put Javonte on the block today, you likely couldn’t get more than a couple of future 2nds for him. Is there a chance Javonte returns a shell of himself and is no longer a relevant fantasy asset? Of course. But there’s a good chance those future seconds never materialize, either. At least we’ve already seen what Javonte can do as a rusher and elite pass-catcher in the NFL. If he doesn’t bounce back, you didn’t miss out on much based on his current trade value. 

Christian Kirk

Kirk is the WR36 in June startup drafts, according to BulletProof ADP. This is after a WR11 overall finish in 2022, where he boasted 84 receptions, 1,108 yards, and eight TDs. The reason for the low-end WR3 projection is understandable; Calvin Ridley is back. Ridley is currently the Dynasty WR27, so the consensus is that he will outperform Kirk by a good margin. Ridley is undoubtedly the more impressive player, but at the same time, he hasn’t played in nearly two years. There’s a world where Kirk is still the WR1 and posts similar numbers to 2022. 

Christian Kirk signed a 4-year, $72M contract with Jacksonville in 2022, so they are fully invested in the veteran WR. The Jaguars only have a reasonable out after 2024, where they could save $10M in cap space by releasing Kirk. That gives him at least two more seasons with an elite young QB throwing him the ball in Trevor Lawrence. 

Currently, Kirk is being drafted in a similar range to unproven RBs like Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco. Kirk may end up being no more than a mediocre flex option for the remainder of his career, but I like his odds of being a difference-maker for my fantasy team more than White and Pacheco. I prefer to ride it out with Kirk on my roster and take his remaining production rather than trading him for an even bigger unknown. 

Nico Collins

If you have Nico Collins on your Dynasty team, don’t bother trying to sell him to your league mates. Many owners view him as a roster clogger, and it shows with his WR69 ADP. You’d be lucky to get a future 3rd round pick from him, let alone a second. The problem is Nico has yet to break out in the NFL, plays for a bad Texans team with a rookie QB in CJ Stroud, and has added competition he hasn’t seen before with John Metchie, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods. 

What I like about Nico Collins is his build, athleticism, and improvements from Year 1 to Year 2. Collins is a 6’4″ WR with 4.4 speed. He improved in nearly every metric in his second year, including PPG, yards per route run (YPRR), and targets per route run (TPRR). Collins also increased his targets, receptions, yards, and TDs while playing four fewer games. His most impressive characteristic is his contested catch percentage, where he finished 2nd in the NFL last year.

There’s a high probability that Collins amounts to nothing in the NFL, but I’m okay with waiting to find out. His trade value is virtually zero, so he’ll serve a much better purpose on your bench in hopes of a future breakout. 

Elite Handcuff Options

A few names come to mind when I think of elite handcuffs. Elijah Mitchell, Tyler Allgeier, and AJ Dillon are a few veterans that are the primary backup on their respective teams and have proven their effectiveness at the NFL level. Some rookie RBs that could jump into these ranks include Tyjae Spears, Tank Bigsby, and Kendre Miller. All it takes is one injury for these handcuffs to find themselves in a bell cow role, capable of helping you through the fantasy playoffs. 

These guys all have some standalone value (specifically the veterans listed), but they can all jump into the RB1 discussion if the guy ahead of them goes down. If you have one of these starters, like Christian McCaffrey, it makes sense to roster Elijah Mitchell, as he holds way more internal value than trade value for you. If CMC gets hurt, Mitchell can lessen the sting. Just plug in Mitchell and keep pushing for that championship. 

On the flip side, if you have one of these handcuff options but not the starter, I’d look to sell your asset for a premium to the owner of that starter. For instance, if I have Tyjae Spears but no Derrick Henry, I’m sending that owner an offer to upgrade my roster elsewhere for little cost. An example could be selling Spears to the Henry owner for an established veteran WR like Brandin Cooks or Tyler Lockett if you’re a contending team looking for more WR insulation. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding