Running backs are always tough to evaluate from a Dynasty perspective, especially weeks before the NFL Draft. Early production with the opportunity given is a great indicator of future success. Two rising stars from the 2023 season are Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) and De’Von Achane (RB – MIA). Per Sleeper ADP for Dynasty (12 Team, Superflex, PPR scoring), these two RBs are drafted back-to-back in startups. While they are similarly valued, I like one over the other.
Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams was a second-year breakout player for the Rams and fits perfectly into Sean McVay’s system. He entered 2023 into a crowded RB room and quickly cemented himself as the starter averaging 83% of snaps through Week 6. Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain that placed him on IR until his return in Week 12. For the remainder of the season, he exploded, averaging 22 carries, 115 yards, and one touchdown resulting in an impressive 24 fantasy points per game. He maintained his snap percentage of 83% over this span and in five out of the six weeks he had an RB1 finish (top-12). Kyren finished the 2023 season with five yards per carry and was the RB2 overall in fantasy points per game with 21.3, second only to Christian McCaffrey.
At only 23 years old, Williams posted numbers that place him close to the elite status of Dynasty RBs with an ADP of 33.3 per Sleeper, which is the late third round of 12 Team leagues. I have seen him fall to the 5th round a few times in my recent startups. Managers have some concerns about his durability with his injury history and “surviving” the NFL Draft as the Rams have 11 draft picks in 2024. In my opinion, the Rams have large gaps in other position groups that they are going to prioritize with these picks given the loss of Aaron Donald and others. They already hit big on a running back in the fifth round in Kyren Williams, so I don’t see them spending high capital in a relatively weak RB class that would give Williams any serious competition for snaps in 2024.
De’Von Achane
Third-round pick De’Von Achane made his presence known in Week 3 of his rookie season for the Dolphins posting 203 yards and two touchdowns on just 18 carries. After, Achane continued to be one of the most efficient RBs in the NFL until his knee injury in Week 5 that landed him on IR. Before this injury, Achane was averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per carry. Achane returned in Week 11 only to suffer another injury causing him to miss Week 12 as well. Upon his return to full health in Week 13 for the remainder of the season, his efficiency dropped back down to a more stable number of 5.3 yards per carry. From Week 13 on, he averaged 52% of snaps, 11 carries, 56.5 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game.
Achane is only 22 years old entering his second season and has an ADP of 34.4 per Sleeper, which is only one pick behind Kyren Williams in the late third round. In my recent startup experiences, Achane has been drafted over Kyren multiple times. Most managers are very intrigued by the efficiency of his early 2023 season where he seemed to break off every run for a huge gain. Most managers are not worried about the Dolphins taking another RB in the NFL Draft, however, they just extended Raheem Mostert through the 2025 season. This is a huge blow to Achane’s ability to see the field and take over the majority of snaps. Mostert had 209 carries in 2023 posting 1012 yards and led all RBs with 18 rushing touchdowns. Achane’s upside will be limited as long as Mostert is healthy.
My Pick
With ADP being within one pick of each other, the consensus has Kyren Williams and De’Von Achane similarly valued in Dynasty leagues. To me, Kyren Williams very easily has the edge. Williams has complete control over the Rams backfield and will continue to have a workhorse role, while Achane will play second fiddle to Raheem Mostert for the next two seasons. I would rather take the risk that the Rams pass on an RB in the draft instead of knowing that Achane already has competition in the backfield. Williams may not have the three-week stretch of efficiency that Achane did in early 2023, but he led all NFL RBs in snap percentage (82%) and rushing yards per game (95.3). His second-place finish of 21.3 fantasy points per game beat out Alvin Kamara‘s third place by 3.4 points. Kyren’s volume, yards per carry, fantasy points per game, and limited competition firmly put him above De’Von Achane in Dynasty startups even though they are back-to-back in ADP.
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