When I began writing fantasy content at Dynasty Football Factory, one of the first pieces I ever sent in was called “Handcuff Heaven”, detailing only the relevant considerations for the term that year and why you should or shouldn’t own them. With that said, I’m excited to reboot one of my first ever articles for DFF.
Please enjoy Handcuff Heaven 2020!
DEFINITION & STRATEGY
Let’s begin by revisiting the definition of a “handcuff”. The “handcuff” refers to a player you draft to provide insurance for another player, usually a starter, on your roster.
It’s clear how important this role can be just from the definition alone, but how valuable are they truly and is there a strategy behind selecting handcuffs?
Here are a few points to consider:
Wasted Roster Spot
Handcuffs, in many cases, are just a wasted roster spot. Even more so when you select your own handcuff and not other owners’. That player will likely never enter your starting lineup and therefore was a wasted draft pick. It’s also very difficult to predict who will take the lead if the starter goes down. Sure there are scenarios like Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard but even then Dallas may sign another back to contribute. Last year DeAndre Washington was a league winner for some but no one could have predicted that and you would certainly have said Jalen Richard would get the work instead.
Another factor that tends to escape us is that these players are back-ups for a reason. Their coaches have determined they’re not good enough or don’t have the skill set to carry the workload, so why would they be now?
Before moving on I think it’s important to make a distinction between RBBC (running back by committee) and a true back-up because they aren’t the same thing. Tevin Coleman is not Raheem Mostert’s handcuff. The 49ers use three or four running backs on a regular basis, there is no discernable way to pick out a handcuff from the bunch.
What To Do
If you must grab a handcuff, choose the ones with low cost and high upside. Think of players outside the top 120 or so whenever possible. Any earlier and the opportunity cost is too great.
One of the key pieces of advice you should take away from this article is to roster other owners’ handcuffs rather than your own. This is for a couple of different reasons. First, if you’re wasting a roster spot you should get the most bang for your buck and take advantage of your opponent. If your league mate owns Ezekiel Elliott and he’s suddenly injured, your Tony Pollard shares become immensely valuable. Not only do you now likely have multiple top 12 running backs but incredible trade bait to throw at your league mate. This is how you win fantasy leagues.
Another tip is to find “handcuffs” with standalone value. One already mentioned was Tony Pollard who will be involved whether Zeke is healthy or not. Chase Edmonds falls into this category as well. He’s the backup to Kenyan Drake but will also have his own role on the team and be a worthy flex option throughout the year.
Lastly, do your best to predict the unpredictable. Injuries of course are extremely difficult to predict but some situations are more likely than others. Take James Conner for example. His injury history is well documented, sportsinjurypredictor gives him an 89% chance of reinjury in 2020. Todd Gurley also falls into this category as he has arthritis in his knee and could easily miss time this year.
These are the situations you want to attack if you’re interested in finding the most valuable handcuffs.
HANDCUFF HEAVEN 2020
We’re finally here!
Below are my best suggestions for handcuffs 2020 tiered out as not all handcuffs are created equal.
Top Tier
The top tier is reserved for players who not only possess top 12 upside if the starter were to suffer an injury but also have weekly stand-alone value throughout the year.
Chase Edmonds (ARI)
Edmonds surely belongs at the top of this list. He’s an athletic freak, boasting an agility score (10.86) within the 97th percentile. He proved his worth last year in Week 7 against the Giants when he exploded for 137 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries. Unfortunately, Edmonds suffered a hamstring injury a week later coinciding with Kenyan Drake’s arrival, derailing any progress he’d made. The good news is Edmonds is the clear cut RB2 in Arizona. He was fourth in yards created per touch and electric in the passing game averaging nine yards after the catch per reception.
Drake is a great running back but has an injury history to worry of his own. Edmonds would be a slam dunk at ADP of 151 if anything were to happen to Drake.
Tony Pollard (DAL)
Pollard has already made a significant impression in just one year in the league as the complementary number two to Ezekiel Elliott. Could Pollard ever fill Zeke’s shoes? Likely not, but he’s been an extremely efficient running back nonetheless. He was fourth in true yards per carry (4.9), eighth in yards per touch (5.6), and ninth in breakaway run rate (5.8%) (runs greater than 15 yards).
Again, Pollard is another back who holds standalone fantasy value but would instantly see a giant increase in workload if Zeke were to miss time.
Latavius Murray (NO)
Alvin Kamara is the king in New Orleans but Latavius Murray was able to hold his own as the Saints number two running back. Luckily we don’t need to guess what it would be like if Murray had the backfield to himself. Kamara missed a few games due to injury last year and Murray put up two games of 20+ carries for 100+ yards and at least one touchdown.
Murray still has value if Kamara is healthy and finds himself in tier one as he’s utilized as a duel threat when both are good to go. We’ve heard reports out of camp that Kamara is still dealing with some kind of injury but will play through it. Murray at ADP of 110 is killer value no matter how you slice it.
Joshua Kelley (LAC)
Kelley is just a rookie and I don’t typically like to put a lot of stock into rookie production, but when Austin Ekeler is singing his praises and reporting he could have a Week 1 role I become intrigued.
The UCLA standout could be part of a one-two punch plan they may want to go with based on the talent they have. Kelley’s current ADP sits around 210 so he is virtually free with a ton of upside.
Middle Tier
The middle tier contains players who could easily become fantasy relevant if the starter were to miss time but only hold some standalone value on their own.
Boston Scott (PHI)
The lesser-known Boston Scott had some production games for the Eagles at the end of the 2019 season. He mainly got his shot due to injuries to many of their skill players. He finished with three touchdowns in Week 11 against the Giants and received at least 6 targets in each game from Weeks 8-11.
Scott’s 8.5 yards per reception will come in handy considering all the wide receiver injuries the Eagles have suffered, not to mention Miles Sanders’ hamstring. He likely has some standalone value but would be an every-week starter if Miles Sanders missed extensive time. He will only cost you a little at 143 ADP.
Darrynton Evans (TEN)
You may not have heard rookie Darrynton Evans’s name before but you should get to know it now. The third-round pick has impressed in camp and worked his way into the backup role behind Derrick Henry. Henry will dominate the running work no doubt but Evans will get his chances in the passing game. Evans is a speed-demon clocking a 4.41 40-yard dash at the combine among other impressive metrics.
Tennessee would likely sign someone if Henry went down but Evans’s workload would surely increase. Derrick Henry’s handcuff is virtually free at ADP of 198.
Benny Snell (PIT)
News out of camp is the former fourth-round pick has been outstanding. Tomlin seems to be a big fan of the running back even though they brought in more help during this year’s draft. Reports haven’t been steller regarding rookie running back, Anthony McFarland so Snell appears to be next in line if James Conner were to go down. Conner suffering an injury would surprise no one. Most analysts don’t expect him to make it through the year and we know how Mike Tomlin prefers to use a workhorse over a committee.
Snell will also cost you nothing with an ADP of 226 but has enormous upside behind the Steelers offensive line.
Bottom Tier
The bottom tier is comprised of long shot handcuffs, mostly QBs who have a chance of becoming the stater at some point during the season. The QBs are only relevant for 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Brian Hill/Ito Smith (ATL)
The Brian Hill/Ito Smith combo had to make it on to this list at some point, right? Todd Gurley has chronic knee arthritis which can flare up at any time leaving one of these two left to carry the load. The issue is we’re really not sure who would take the lead and anyone who tells you they do is lying. I would bet on Brian Hill who is currently ahead of Ito Smith on the depth chart and has flashed at times in the past.
I’m not sure either of these players would be top 20 options even if Todd Gurley missed the entire season but Atlanta hasn’t signed anyone else so maybe they are confident in the group.
Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Mariota falls into the handcuff category because of all the questions surrounding Derek Carr as the starting quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. From the outside, it certainly looks like the former second overall pick in the NFL draft was brought in to push Carr and take over if needed.
Mariota was just placed on IR with an undisclosed injury but could be back after Week 3.
Justin Herbert (LAC)
If anyone has watched “Hard Knocks” this offseason just once you’ve seen Justin Herbert’s throwing ability. He’s not polished by any means and won’t start the season but he appears to have the skill set needed to get the job done. Tyrod Taylor will begin the season as the starting quarterback but we’ve seen this story before. There’s a real chance Herbert takes over by mid-season if Taylor struggles or Herbert improves and impresses in practice.
Jameis Winston (NO)
Most people probably forget Jameis Winston was signed by the Saints to back-up Drew Brees. Brees SHOULD play the entire season but he’s 41 years old and just missed five games last season due to injury. Brees is an incredible athlete but I don’t believe he’s following the TB12 method which allows you to play until your about 100 years old.
Winston would be a top 10 quarterback in the Saints offense, interceptions be damned.
FINAL THOUGHTS
If your draft is already complete, don’t worry. Many of the players listed were drafted less than 20% of the time and have extremely low ownership rates. You’ll likely find them sitting on the waiver wire so you can still decide if they’re worth rostering on your team but get ahead of the pack on the top tier handcuffs as they give you the greatest advantage against your opponents.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
