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Hammer’s DFS Hammers: NFL Week 5

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Welcome to Week 5, which is one of my favorite weeks. Why? We now have four weeks of proof points and data to paint a picture of who a team is and what players’ roles are becoming. It’s an opportunity to start forming conclusions based on this season rather than relying heavily on last year’s and summer data. That said, it’s shaped up as quite a strange main slate for Sunday.

Few games scream for points, and few QB spots stand out. However, I do see some hidden opportunity in some of the matchups, especially those with smaller totals that some might overlook for DFS. There is also a higher point total game that I will be building my own lineups around.

Before getting into my Hammers for this week, I wanted to recap my Week 1 Hammers:

  1. Jalen Coker (WR – CAR): 8-138-2 for a major boom week. What a start to the season; it’s too bad injuries caught up to him early.
  2. Tyler Shough (QB – NOS): 35/56 for 410 and three TDs. It didn’t start pretty, but he ended up with a monster game.
  3. Parker Washington (WR – JAX): 5-83-1, and he left 60+ on the table. He’s been consistent outside of Week 4, which will continue through the season.
  4. Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC): 12-43-1. He scored and looked like he was going to have a big week early in the game but disappeared – a trend that seems to be continuing. The talent doesn’t jump off the page like it did last year in healthy games.
  5. Colston Loveland (TE – CHI): 0-0-0. What a whiff. That role to end the 2025 season didn’t seem to carry over, which feels incredibly strange.

Three nice hits, one half-hit, and one big miss. I can say that I’ll be watching the Chicago Bears games intently, looking for when I think the Colston Loveland breakout game will be this season. That role he showed us to end 2025 looked too promising to give up on.

I’ve got five names for this week, and the love is centered around role, matchup, and game environment. That’s the swing. Let’s get into it.

Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate (WR – TEN)

  • Thesis: Over the last two weeks, Carnell Tate has shown us what he’s capable of when there’s volume despite getting sub-par QB play from Cam Ward. In Week 3, he had nine targets for 6-58-0, and in Week 4, he had a whopping 12 targets for 9-145-0. The Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense isn’t what it used to be, but man, did he look good on several catches in Week 4. I think this target spike is a sign of things to come, and that the team is trying to get him going. Plus, the matchup against the flailing Houston Texans pass defense is cherry.
  • Matchup and game environment: The Houston Texans secondary is leaking yards to opposing wide receivers, ranking 28th for the season in passing yards per game. For 2026, they are allowing 40+ fantasy points per game to the position, which ranks as one of the highest amounts surrendered by any defense in the NFL. Yes, the game has a sub-40 total. But this feels like a spot for Carnell Tate to keep his momentum going, and I feel like he finds his way into the endzone. His price at $5,900 on FanDuel is appealing.

Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)

  • Thesis: This is the highest total on the main slate, and Michael Wilson allows you to capitalize on many of the yards flowing through the Arizona Cardinals side of the game. He has had 17 targets in Week 3, and 13 in Week 4. That trend should continue as the Detroit Lions are a pass funnel – and I feel like a lot of the field will be on Trey McBride and Tyler Allgeier, or zoned in on the Detroit Lions offensive players.
  • Matchup and game environment: Through the first four games of this season, the Detroit Lions are officially the worst defense in the NFL – struggling heavily in pass coverage and showing big signs of vulnerability against the run. They are also bottom-three in most points allowed to wide receivers. Feels like a wheels-up game for Michael Wilson, and at $6,400, the price has not caught up to his target volume. I also think he’ll be a lot more efficient this week and prove to be a great value, especially if Jeremiyah Love is truly banged up and not in a position to catch as many balls out of the backfield. 

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

  • Thesis: Sam LaPorta is my play on the other side of the ball in the highest total game on the main slate. To start this season, Sam LaPorta has a 20% target share, zero drops, and nine red zone targets – all going along with an 87% snap share.
  • Matchup and game environment: The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. They have also played mostly zone coverage to start this season, focusing on Cover 6, which leaves the seam and flat open often – all areas where Sam LaPorta thrives. The bet this week is on his continued target share and red zone role in a potentially high-scoring, back-and-forth affair where Jared Goff will look his way often. On FanDuel, he is also priced in a way that puts him between other names the field will be clicking on.

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

  • Thesis: Jaylen Warren looks fantastic with the ball in his hands. This week, he’ll be another week healthier from his shoulder injury, and even if Rico Dowdle does return, he won’t be hurting for touches. Plus, the yardage continues to be there – carrying the ball and catching it out of the backfield. What’s not there? The touchdowns. I think that changes this week.
  • Matchup and game environment: As a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I know what these matchups are typically like. This one feels different because the Pittsburgh Steelers are on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and the Colts are coming back from a long trip to London, which should provide a decisive edge. Plus, the Indianapolis Colts’ run defense ranks 26th in the NFL through 4 weeks. We should also note that the last time these two teams met in this building, Jaylen Warren scored twice. This feels like a wheels-up week for Jaylen Warren and a bounce-back spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers after a tough loss to a divisional opponent on national TV. I don’t have a specific stat to back this up, but Mike McCarthy is generally known as a coach whose teams bounce back strongly after a bad performance. I’m buying a Pittsburgh victory with Jaylen Warren having a nice game – and it feels like positive touchdown regression could start this week.

Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)

  • Thesis: Rome Odunze’s best game of this year came with Tyson Bagent last week, where he put up 6-94-0 on 7 targets (yardage was a team high). He left another big play or two on the table too – and was this close to scoring a touchdown. I feel like a lot of the field is going to be focused on the Chicago Bears run game due to the Green Bay Packers’ terrible run defense, but they aren’t that much better against the pass.
  • Matchup and game environment: The Green Bay Packers have been middle-of-the-pack in terms of target share allowed to wide receivers to start this season. But I can’t stop thinking about the meltdown they had against the Atlanta Falcons, or the comment that Tyson Bagent made after last week’s game about Rome Odunze being the number one in progressions. To me, this feels like another step in the right direction for Rome Odunze this week. I also like him to score.

That’s it for this week. Hit rate so far has been 3.5 out of 5, and I’ll continue to track as these articles get published. Wishing everyone an awesome Week 5, and as always, I’d love any thoughts you have on my takes.

Greg Hammer (@blackgoldhammer). Professional dad taking swings at DFS, dynasty, and betting markets for Dynasty Football Factory.

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