My last name is Hammer. I’m not going to pretend this article’s name is an accident.
This isn’t a weekly column, because most weeks I won’t have enough to say. I write these when a slate actually lines up – when the numbers, the narratives, the beat reports from practice, the under-the-radar role changes, and the injury report all point in the same direction towards players. Week 1 is one of those weeks. Prices were locked in earlier this summer, and a lot of what we’re betting on now is how guys finished the 2025 season, plus whether camp backed it up. That’s a real edge if you’re paying attention.
I’ve got five names this week. They aren’t on the same team, and they don’t have the same role. What they share is that the close of 2025 still looks better than their price, their summer backed up what we saw last year, and Sunday’s matchup gives them a reason to eat. That’s the swing. Let’s get into it.
Jalen Coker (WR – CAR)
- Thesis: Tetairoa McMillan may be the Panthers’ “WR1.” But Jalen Coker got paid this offseason, and over the last month of 2025 he was arguably the most productive receiver in the building – including the playoffs. While Chicago will score, they have injuries at corner, and Carolina is often feisty at home.
- How he closed last season: The last four Panthers’ regular-season games: Coker 15-170-2 and McMillan 13-188-1. That is not how teams treat a clear WR3. The market is still paying up for the first-round name and fading the guy who finished the year getting the ball. Not saying Tet isn’t awesome; I’m saying Jalen Coker is a baller and will be a value this year starting Week 1.
- Week 1 situation: At home. Chicago is down starting-caliber corners – Kyler Gordon on PUP, and others are in the questionable mix. This is a game where Carolina should have to throw to keep up, and Coker is the cheap second target in that offense.
Parker Washington (WR – JAC)
- Thesis: I still can’t find the X user who coined this nickname, but PPRker Washington ended last year as Jacksonville’s most reliable wideout – and as the “F” in Liam Coen’s offense, Washington is going to show us why the loud drumbeat we heard all summer is not smoke. Jacksonville will dominate this game, but we’ve seen before that they have no problem putting up points at home regardless of opponent.
- How he closed last season: Parker Washington’s 2025 final stretch was amazing. He had multiple 100-yard games and finished the year as the clear number one passing target for Trevor Lawrence – including in the red zone. Data for 2025 weeks 16-19, including the playoff game, show elite efficiency that will continue into this year:
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- 28.9% Target Share
- 113.5 Yards / Game
- 3.78 YPRR
- 13.3 Average DoT
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- Week 1 situation: Myles Garrett may be gone; however, Cleveland’s secondary is still real. But as I mentioned above, the Jaguars are never hesitant to put up points, and Washington will be a big part of it – especially considering the upcoming extension. He proved last year that he can produce in tough matchups as well. His salary puts him in the low-end WR2 range, so I see it as a value and line-up differentiator.
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)
- Thesis: Luther Burden spent the majority of camp with a groin injury. Rome Odunze left practice early this past week. And Colston Loveland has had a strong drumbeat all summer. Week 1 is the lift-off to him being a big part of Ben Johnson’s vision to tear up offensive scoring records in 2026.
- How he closed last season: Caleb Williams started looking for Loveland when the pass-catcher room got thin last year, and then he just kept doing it. By December, Loveland wasn’t the tight end. He was the first read. The late-season run included 59 of his 89 targets, 790 yards, and six TDs. His efficiency held up against elite names, and that will continue this season.
- Week 1 situation: Rome Odunze and Luther Burden both have injury questions. D’Andre Swift is banged up, and we haven’t heard much about the injury. Even if they all suit up, it’s hard to know what to expect. Additionally, the middle of the field is where Carolina leaked with 8.9 yards per target to tight ends last year, one of the worst marks in the league. Wheels up for Loveland.
Tyler Shough (QB – NO)
- Thesis: Tyler Shough’s salary still treats him like a guy who stole a job late in the 2025 season. Last year, he proved he was a starter who thrives in 50-point games. The Saints are picked as the NFC South winner by several plugged-in beat writers, and this is a game where they will have to score to keep up with Detroit at home.
- How he closed last season: Shough took over Week 9 and went 5-4. His full line was 2,384 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs, 67.6% completion, plus 186 rushing yards and three scores. That rushing production is what I’m excited about. He was a top-five fantasy QB for a stretch after Week 12 last season, and he’s still priced as a QB2/stream for Week 1.
- Week 1 situation: The game total has been hanging around 50. Yes, Detroit will score. But that means New Orleans will have to throw. Jordyn Tyson is on IR, which means the passing game will concentrate on Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Travis Etienne. I also really like Bryce Lance and Barion Brown as playmakers. Shough has weapons and already showed he can operate when the game gets loud. He’s probably my strongest, under-the-radar flag plant for Week 1.
Omarion Hampton (RB – LAC)
- Thesis: With Mike McDaniel at the helm as a proven architect who consistently produces top-5 running backs, I’m excited to see Hampton show why he was a high draft pick. If McDaniel can do what he did with Mostert/Achane, imagine what he can do with Hampton. Plus, the Chargers are in a smash spot hosting the Cardinals at home – likely to be without Keaton Mitchell.
- How he closed last season: Hampton handled roughly 17 touches and put up 95 total yards a game before his ankle injury, including 12-128-1 plus five catches at the Giants. He came back after injury, but wasn’t the same athlete. It’s all about trusting what we saw in Hampton’s healthy games, and I believe that’s what we’ll get in 2026 within a McDaniel offense.
- Week 1 situation: Mike McDaniel may have said he’ll use Hampton, Mitchell, and Vidal. But Hampton is still the lead back and the one with size for the goal line (and has passing game chops). This week, the Chargers are a double-digit home favorite in a mid-40s total. We saw how feisty the Cardinals can be last year, so the Chargers will have to keep their foot on the gas against what was a softer run defense last season. I see this as a great spot where Hampton will likely have lower ownership, as lots of folks are high on Herbert and the passing game after we saw that 70-yard bomb to Quentin Johnston during the preseason.
That’s it for this week, but more hammers to come this season. I’ll track hits and misses as the year goes on, and I’d love any thoughts you have on my takes.
Wishing everyone an awesome Week 1.
Greg Hammer (@blackgoldhammer). Professional dad taking swings at DFS, Dynasty, and betting markets for Dynasty Football Factory.
