The NFL season is almost upon us with less than one week left until Training Camps open. The time to pilfer the waiver wire for any free talent before they gain value from camp buzz is right now. Some known commodities might make a splash, but owners are hoping to cash in on the next James Robinson or Phillip Lindsay to win now or trade while their value is high. We’ll look at team depth charts and scouting reports to highlight six rookies that are either going undrafted in rookie drafts or can be bought during late rounds of startups.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette (WR-MIN)
Sleeper Roster Percentage: 60%
Pros: Speed, Special Teams Ability, Opportunity
Cons: Route Running, Targets, Size
Ihmir Smith-Marsette is already on many savvy manager radars. The Vikings’ fifth-round pick out of Iowa brings speed to compliment the route-running ability of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Nobody expects Smith-Marsette to supplant the two incumbent starters, but the appeal of this pick is about 2022 and beyond. Adam Thielen just turned the dreaded age of 30 and had his contract extension restructured so the Vikings could afford to sign their rookie class.
Smith-Marsette is a good bet to be a roster lock. Rookies with high special teams upside stick around on rosters, which we hope will give him more time to develop into an NFL route-runner. This seems like bad news for Thielen who could be a prime candidate to be a cap casualty next season. Smith-Marsette can be bought for virtually nothing, so I’d feel comfortable drafting him now and see how he fairs in camp.
Kylen Granson (TE-IND)
Sleeper Roster Percentage: 49%
Pros: Speed, Versatility, Scheme-fit
Cons: Size, Blocking, Drops
Kylen Granson is my favorite player on this list. If you have any more rookie drafts, do yourself a favor and let somebody else draft Pat Freiermuth and take a flier on Kylen Granson later. Granson is the perfect fit and replacement for Trey Burton in this offense. Although that isn’t a sexy comparison or anecdote, consider that Burton spent his good years wasted on a bad Chicago offense. Playing with the Ghost of Phillip Rivers is the best situation he’s had since he left Philidelphia in 2018. Now we have a younger clone plugged into an ideal situation.
Although you may not like undersized move tight ends, Frank Reich does. Moreover, Carson Wentz loves throwing to his tight ends. In 2018, Wentz threw 210 targets to his TEs vs 270 to WRs while Frank Reich was his play-caller. These are the perfect ingredients for Granson to be a discount at his current price. Sure, Moe Allie-Cox and Jack Doyle are still on their roster, but they both play the inline position for blocking. Trey Burton received 47 out of 119 targets to tight ends in 2020 so it’s safe to say that we should treat Doyle and Allie-Cox like they play the same position and eat into their own target share. This might be another draft-and-stash candidate, but aren’t almost all tight ends? Put him on your taxi squad and feel good about your decision come training camp time.
Javian Hawkins (RB-ATL)
Sleeper Roster Percentage: 87%
Pros: Speed, Homerun Hitter, Great with Outside Zone
Cons: Size, Poor open field skills despite size, Low receiving production, Does not break tackles, Runs too high for short stature.
This is my first and only “sell while he has value” candidate. No, he doesn’t have that much value, but if you can add him as a throw-in option to help close a deal I’d call that a win. I keep hearing buzz about him because Arthur Smith is now HC, he loves to run the football and Mike Davis is his only obstacle. I’m sure it’s easy to get excited about a player when you ignore that Arthur Smith also had the 6’3” and 247-pound monster in Derrick Henry. Javian Hawkins is 5’8” and 183 lbs with his cleats on, so expecting him to be the next Jame Robinson seems like the most laughable story this offseason. I don’t feel any better about Hawkins as a receiver due to the lack of college production, and Arthur Smith never scheming Jeremy McNichols in any type of receiving role.
I just don’t see any real indicators of upside with Hawkins besides being a body that may get special teams’ work. He doesn’t profile as a runner who could fit into the play-calling we’ve seen from Smith thus far. If you miss Davis and want to gamble on another player with an opportunity in Atlanta, I’d look at Qadree Ollison. Ollison is 6’1” and 232 lbs and better fits the mold of an every-down back. It looks like Ollison is already making a great impression this offseason according to CBS Sports. Sell Hawkins for whatever you can and pick up Ollison for free while you can.
Chris Evans (RB-CIN)
Sleeper Roster Percentage: 72%
Pros: Great Balance, Ideal Size, Blue Chip Pass Catching Ability, Finishes Runs
Cons: Lack of Recent Production, 2019 Suspension, Opportunity
I’m going to slow down the Chris Evans Hype-Train before I even begin. Chris Evans’s film looks fantastic, but let’s not forget that the Bengals signed Joe Mixon to a 4 year, $48 million extension in 2020 and happens to be a fantastic prospect himself. The issue has been a mixture of injuries and a poor offense. An injury to Mixon is about the only way Evans sees the field as the “James Robinson” that some in the fantasy community think he is. But that is a reason to stash him and see what happens.
It’s obvious that injuries are common to running backs, so rookies who could thrive when given an opportunity are worth a taxi stash. We can’t disregard that Mixon hasn’t played a full season despite all the positive coach speak we’ve heard all offseason. Evans offers enough pass-catching ability that they could use him to spell Mixon during some 3rd down situations. There’s a real path to Evans being a Tony Pollard or Alexander Mattison-Esque player that becomes an RB2 when the starter goes down. I’d rather have him as a free lottery ticket to have on my bench than Javian Hawkins.
Simi Fehoko (WR-DAL)
Sleeper Roster Percentage: 35%
Pros: Size/Speed Combo, Blue Chip catch in traffic, Good downfield separator
Cons: Unrefined route-runner, Needs to improve body control
The Cowboys got a hidden gem in the fifth round this year. Simi Fehoko was one of my favorite value prospects this year due to his rare blend of size and speed plus the catch ability to be a RedZone monster. Patience will be key to realize his future value due to the many mouths to feed, but, realistically, Fehoko could see the field by next season.
Michael Gallup is in a contract year and looks to split duties both in the slot and on the outside. If Dallas can recreate the 2020 magic they had Pre-Dak Injury, Gallup could crack 1,000 yards and flirt with high-end WR3 or flex appeal. You can’t always project a player falling into a departing player’s role, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see Fehoko developing enough to recreate Gallup’s production.
Are They Worth It?
All of these players except Hawkins can be had right now for virtually nothing. The real question is if you have the roster space to stash any of them now. Most of you probably already do, you’re just still waiting on your favorite sleeper from two years ago to break out. Don’t be afraid to let someone else deal with a two-year roster-clogger like Chris Herndon (never going to happen, folks) and roll the dice on these free spins. You’ve got to risk it for the biscuit, or you’ll never be the guy to score on a James Robinson freebie.
Am I missing a rookie or sleeping on Javian Hawkins? Let me know @SportsJag and give me a follow for unnecessary hot takes and all my latest articles.
