The Falcons announced that third-round rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder will be starting over Marcus Mariota for the remainder of the season following the team’s Week 14 bye.
Ridder will have four games to showcase his skillset as the leading signal-caller. Dynasty managers and Falcons fans alike are ecstatic at the potential rise in value Ridder’s presence can bring to the offensive weapons in question. However, it may be wise to temper expectations for the young first-year field general. Not all situations are created equal and Ridder will have to overcome a stacked deck of unlikely outcomes to beat his odds of success.
Without further ado, let’s dive into Ridder’s dynasty outlook for 2022 and beyond.
PAST PRODUCTION
DFF Draft Profile
2022 Draft Coverage: Desmond Ridder
Measurables
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 207 lbs
Age: 23
Athletic Profile
40-Yard Dash: 4.52s
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical: 36”
Broad Jump: 127”
3 Cone Drill: 7.29s
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.29s
Relative Athletic Score: 9.62
NFL Prospect Grades
Scouting Grade: 6.36 (Future Starter)
Next Gen Grade: 79 (Good-Great)
Jared Hines (@Ship_Chaser) covered Ridder’s rise to the NFL Draft in Dynasty Football Factory’s extensive 2022 Draft Coverage series, citing the gutsy gunslinger’s incredible athleticism and stellar senior season at Cincinnati. Ridder ended his tenure with his alma mater by throwing for 3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on a 65% completion percentage while leading his team to an undefeated regular season and CFB playoff berth. The dual-threat rushed for over 350 yards in four straight seasons, amassing a 77th-percentile college QBR of 80.9.
The Falcons selected Ridder with the 10th pick of the 3rd round, making him the second quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft behind Kenny Pickett. Ridder’s mid-round draft capital and middling collegiate profile leave much to be desired but his other-worldly athleticism is more than enough to warrant interest for fantasy purposes.
Quarterbacks in Ridder’s tier of career trajectories rarely outperform their supposed hit rates. Managers should tread with caution when placing investments into the stock of third-round developmental prospects that could be replaced as early as the first round in the 2023 NFL draft.
PRESENT OUTLOOK
As much as I respect the glass-half-full outlook of James Palmer, the reality of the situation is much darker. The Falcons’ coaching staff is placing Ridder in a pedestrian offensive system, rife with dysfunction and incompetence. The Falcons rank 31st in team pass attempts, averaging a lowly 23.1 throws per game. A false narrative of the blame can be placed on Marcus Mariota and his dreadful inefficiencies but the Falcons’ offensive attack (or lack thereof) is a product of system over function. Head coach Arthur Smith consistently sits amongst the NFL’s top coaches in terms of rush percentages per game. This season Smith has taken his philosophy to new heights, designing a run on 58.2% of his offensive play calls. When you look up and down the Falcons’ depth chart at the wide receiver position, it is hard to argue against Smith’s run-first system.
Drake London tops the charts as the Falcons’ most talented receiving weapon, especially now that second-year star tight end Kyle Pitts is out for the season. London is pulling an elite 28.1% target share (WR10), albeit on limited cumulative totals. The first-round rookie wideout has 47 receptions for 533 yards and four touchdowns this season. Expecting a monumental increase in end-of-season production from London is asinine. Ridder will have just four games to find his rhythm as an NFL starter. There are no guarantees that the Falcons’ play-calling evolves into a pass-happy system simply due to a quarterback change. It is more likely that we see an even larger increase in rushing production if Ridder is given the green light to scramble like a madman.
After London, the Falcons have an utter dearth of receiving depth with Olamide Zaccheaus and Damiere Byrd rounding out the starting wideouts. Cordarrelle Patterson is the usual suspect to pick up the slack in the receiving game but has met a wall of disastrous decline at the age of 32 in his 10th season.
Furthermore, the Falcons are in no position to compete for the Playoffs and would likely be content with taking four straight losses to end their season/start Ridder’s career. The coaching staff will attempt to mitigate mistakes with a simplified playbook and a continued run-first approach. If Ridder shows signs of excellence it will likely be via his athleticism rather than as a high-producing passer.
FUTURE OF THE FRANCHISE
Although he has the starting role today, Ridder’s future does not appear much brighter than when he was backing up Mariota. At this juncture in the season, the Falcons’ rookie quarterback will have to put up a record-setting stretch of league-winning production to insure his value beyond the 2022 season, both in the NFL and on dynasty markets. The Falcons currently have the 10th overall pick in the upcoming 2023 NFL draft. Any additional losses could potentially heighten that rank, putting the organization in a prime position to draft their future franchise quarterback within the first ten picks. A four-game sample size from Ridder, even if it comes with positive results, is likely not enough to deter the front office from investing in one of the two (Young, Stroud) elite rookie quarterbacks in next year’s class.
Ridder’s value is temporarily heightened for contending rosters in desperate need of a quarterback replacement. However, those teams will need to feel comfortable with their current situation as the Falcons do not take the field again until Week 15. Ridder will have little-to-no value insulation until after the 2023 NFL draft and only if the Falcons pass on a more promising rookie quarterback.
A BAD BET
A changing of the guard at quarterback for the Falcons offers more questions than it does answers. Managers should not place an exorbitant amount of false hope into Ridder’s stock to close out the 2022 season. Any rise in value will be directly tied to a minuscule sample size of outlier production followed by an immediate decrease in value during the offseason once the market adjusts for the probability of Ridder being replaced.
SIGNOFF
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out my other works as an Author at Dynasty Football Factory.
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