Finding trends in underlying data has always been critical to staying one step ahead of your Dynasty league. Many key metrics stabilize quicker than fantasy points and predict future fantasy breakouts. This series analyzes that data for you and details which players you need to be ahead of the curve on before their Dynasty value appreciates or depreciates.
Dynasty values used for this article are from Keep Trade Cut which is a Dynasty community-driven value tool.
Statistics used are from NFL PRO premium next-gen stats.
Yards Per Route Run Leaders (Min 20 routes)
Yards per route run has proven to be one of the premier advanced metrics for proving future fantasy production. These players shown below are the most efficient/productive players in the number of routes they have been given to date, so the theory is that this leads to more volume.
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 4.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4.2 |
| Rashee Rice | 3.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 3.9 |
| Nico Collins | 3.8 |
| Alec Pierce | 3.7 |
| De’Von Achane | 3.5 |
Here are a few players I am recommending as buys based on their current Dynasty values:
Rashid Shaheed is priced as the WR45 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Chris Godwin is priced as the WR35 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Austin Ekeler is priced as the RB58 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
I am holding on the others for now.
Conversely, here are your least efficient route runners so far (Min 20 routes)
| Amari Cooper | .3 |
| Andrei Iosivas | .5 |
| Drake London | .6 |
| Tank Dell | .6 |
| Tre Tucker | .6 |
| Michael Pittman | 1.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1.1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1.1 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | 1.1 |
| Keenan Allen | 1.2 |
Amari Cooper is priced as the WR42 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Drake London is priced as the WR17 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
I am holding on the others for now.
Here are some team situations that need to be monitored based on usage to identify who may emerge from the group:
Kansas City Chief Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| I. Pacheco | 19 | 90 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| C.Steele | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S. Perine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Why does this usage matter so much?
After the game, it was revealed Isiah Pacheco has a fractured fibula. This typically has an average of a 6-week recovery time. That means the new Chiefs running back will be the top waiver target in fantasy this week.
So, who is it?
Many out there are saying it is Perine.
The usage indicates otherwise. Steele received five touches before Pacheco left the game. Then he received the last two touches of the game after Pacheco left.
If I had a waiver to use it would be on Steele. I would expect Steele to be the early down and goal line option with Perine being the goal line back.
Recommendation:
Isaiah Pacheco is priced as the RB10 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Carson Steele is priced as the RB68 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Samaje Perine is priced as the RB75 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Cleveland Brown Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Ford | 7 | 64 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Foreman | 14 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Ford | 12 | 44 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 25 |
| Foreman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wow! This was unexpected.
After not playing in week 1, Jerome Ford played second fiddle to D’onta Foreman in Week 2. Foreman had twice as many carries as Ford in Week 2. The usage here was mysterious, to say the least. Ford was efficient with his touches early and then gave way to Foreman late.
The big winner here may be Nick Chubb as Stefanski doesn’t seem to be enamored with Ford or Foreman.
Recommendation:
Jerome Ford is priced as the RB29 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
D’ Onta Foreman is priced as the RB95 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Nick Chubb is priced as the RB46 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers
Week 2
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Robinson | 4 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 14.8% | 14.3% | 1.8 |
| Atwell | 4 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 14.8% | 40.0% | 4.8 |
| Kupp | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 22.2% | 31.6% | 1.9 |
| Johnson | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11.1% | 12.0% | .8 |
Cooper Kupp suffered an injury in this game forcing another man to step up in the Rams receiver group. With Puka Nacua already out several weeks TuTu Atwell was the newest player to step up.
Atwell was targeted on an incredible 40% of his routes by Stafford. Stafford trusts Atwell and the best part is he is very cheap if you need a fill-in for a few weeks.
Recommendation:
Tutu Atwell is priced as the WR116 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Demarcus Robinson is priced as the WR84 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Cooper Kupp is priced as the WR29 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating until we find out the extent of his injury.
Tyler Johnson is priced as the WR90 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Green Bay Wide Receivers
Week 2
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Doubs | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 | 21.4% | 23.1% | 4.8 |
| Reed | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 14.2% | 18.2% | .8 |
| Watson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wicks | 4 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 28.5% | 50% | 3.3 |
Week 1
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Targets Per Route Run | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Doubs | 7 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 20% | 21.2% | 1.5 |
| Reed | 6 | 4 | 138 | 1 | 17% | 22.2% | 5.1 |
| Watson | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 14% | 18.5% | .5 |
| Wicks | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.5% | 18.8% | 0 |
As expected, the Jordan Love injury has made all of the Packer receivers unstartable. Love is not expected back for another 2 to 3 weeks. Until that time, you just need to keep these players on your bench. Impatient owners may present a buying opportunity.
The Packers have one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the NFL. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks are each worthy of starting roles.
Wicks led all Packer wide receivers in yards per route run at 2.30 last year, but his role was most in question. Reed seemed cemented into the slot, and his 2.20 YPRR ranked 2nd. Watson (1.80) and Doubs (1.50) trailed.
Recommendation:
Romeo Doubs is priced as the WR50 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Jayden Reed is priced as the WR25 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Dontayvion Wicks is priced as the WR55 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Christian Watson is priced as the RB42 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Houston Texans Wide Receivers
Week 2
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Routes | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Collins | 10 | 8 | 135 | 1 | 27.7% | 36 | 3.8 |
| Dell | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11.1% | 33 | 0 |
| Diggs | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 16.7% | 32 | 1.2 |
Week 1
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | Target
Share |
Routes | Yards Per Route Run | |
| Collins | 8 | 6 | 117 | 0 | 25% | 30 | 3.9 |
| Dell | 7 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 21.9% | 31 | 1.3 |
| Diggs | 6 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 18.8% | 32 | 1.0 |
The Texans have a lethal offensive attack and one of the top wide receiver rooms in the NFL with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. When both Dell and Nico Collins played together last year, Dell averaged more fantasy points, yards, and touchdowns. With the addition of Stefon Diggs, it was very much in question as to how this unit would be deployed.
This year it has been a different story. Nico Collins has emerged as the unquestioned alpha of the trio. Through two games Collins ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per route run while both Diggs and Dell rank in the bottom 10.
Recommendation:
Stefon Diggs is priced as the WR39 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Nico Collins is priced as the WR11 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Tank Dell is priced as the WR24 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Dallas Cowboys Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| E. Elliot | 6 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| R. Dowdle | 7 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 29 |
| D. Vaughn | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| E. Elliot | 10 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| R. Dowdle | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
From a talent perspective, this is perhaps the least exciting backfield situation in the NFL with a middling journeyman Rico Dowdle and way past their prime journeymen Ezekiel Elliot and Dalvin Cook.
However, this is still a good offense, which means there will be touchdown opportunities.
Dissatisfied with their rushing attack in Week 1 the Cowboys mixed in Deuce Vaughn to the attack (if you can call it that). Unfortunately, Vaughn didn’t have much success either with 4 rushes for 11 yards.
An interesting development was Dowdle’s pass-game usage. Five targets are pretty solid usage.
Recommendation:
Ezekiel Elliot is priced as the RB62 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Rico Dowdle is priced as the RB48 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Deuce Vaughn is priced as the RB80 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Keep an eye on Vaughn in deep Dynasty leagues as a stash. Dowdle and Elliot remain locked in a close split.
Los Angeles Rams Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| K. Williams | 12 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| B. Corum | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| K. Williams | 18 | 50 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| R. Rivers | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| B. Corum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
This game was over early with the Cardinals mounting an early 21-0 lead. This was compounded when the Rams lost Cooper Kupp for the game with an ankle injury.
Corum’s junior year efficiency stats pre-knee injury were far more impressive than his senior year. He was outside the top 10 RBs in this rookie class in missed tackles forced per attempt.
In Week 1, Kyren had similar bellcow usage to last year when he was the RB2 overall in fantasy points per game. He had a huge 91% snap rate. Blake Corum didn’t even get a carry. That changed in week two quite a bit. But Corum’s work all came when the game was well out of hand.
The Rams’ offense is now without Puka Nacua and likely Kupp for a few weeks. There are going to be fewer touchdown opportunities for the Rams as a result.
Recommendation:
Kyren Williams is priced as the RB9 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Blake Corum is priced as the RB33 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Tennessee Titans Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Pollard | 17 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 40 |
| Spears | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Pollard | 16 | 82 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| Spears | 4 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
Our recommendation last week was to buy low on Pollard. Spears was injured late in this game, but it was Pollard once again getting the heavy side of the committee. It’s almost lopsided enough to no longer call this situation a committee.
Recommendation:
Tony Pollard is priced at RB27 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Tyjae Spears is priced at RB30 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a sell rating.
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Achane | 22 | 96 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 69 |
| Wright | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Achane | 10 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 76 |
| Mostert | 6 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
We all know De’Von Achane is a great player in a great scheme. He posted otherworldly efficiency stats last year en route. His usage in Week 1 was exciting. His usage in Week 2 made us drool.
If he is going to get limited touches, we want them to target vs. rush attempts, as a target is worth 2.5 times a rush attempt in fantasy. Achane is an excellent receiver.
Recommendation:
De’Von Achane is priced at RB4 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Raheem Mostert is priced at RB48 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a buy rating.
Jaylen Wright is priced at RB34 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
Tampa Bay Buccaneer Running Backs
Week 2
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Irving | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| White | 10 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Week 1
| Rushes | Rush Yards | Rush TD | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yards | |
| Irving | 9 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| White | 15 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 75 |
The rush attempt split was similar to Week 1 here. Once again, however, Irving was more efficient than Rachaad White.
Rachaad White was the most inefficient starting running back last season, that honor belonged to Rachaad White.
Per Fantasy Points data, last season, among the 23 running backs that carried the ball at least 200 times, Rachaad White ranked dead last in yards after contact per carry (2.24), missed tackles forced per carry (0.14), *and* rushing yards over expectation per carry (-0.41).
Enter fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving, a decisive downfield runner. Irving ranked top five in this rookie class in PFF Rush Grade (90.8), Target share (11.7%), missed tackles forced per attempt (.36), and career yards after contact per attempt (3.81).
Recommendation:
Bucky Irving is priced at RB34 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong buy rating.
Rachaad White is priced at RB18 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.
Baltimore Tight Ends
Week 2
| Targets | Rec | Rec Yrds | Routes | Targets per route | Yards per route | Target
Share |
|
| Likely | 3 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 20.8% | 1.5 | 8.8% |
| Andrews | 5 | 4 | 51 | 24 | 17.6% | 2.1 | 14.7% |
Week 1
| Targets | Rec | Rec Yrds | Routes | Targets per route | Yards per route | Target
Share |
|
| Likely | 12 | 9 | 111 | 24 | 50% | 4.6 | 29.2% |
| Andrews | 2 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 4.9% |
Isaiah Likely exploded for 9 receptions, 111 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1. Week 2, Likely was only able to muster a meager 8.8% target share.
Andrews may never be the elite tight end option he once was as the Ravens offense distributes the ball more, but he is a tier 2 option at the position.
Recommendation:
Isaiah Likely is priced at TE6 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a strong sell rating.
Mark Andrews is priced at TE8 on KTC. At this price, I maintain a hold rating.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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