Welcome to the Dynasty Trade Review HQ, your go-to source for mastering the art of Dynasty Fantasy Football trading. We’re back examining the startup trading market of the “Chads Trading League”. To recap the 1.01 overall trade, you can look here at Dynasty Startup Trading, where we cover the league scoring, our draft plan, and the importance of tiering players in a startup draft.
This week we’ll be examining a few more trades that we completed to fill out our team, revisit our draft plan, and look at some trades others in our league made, that I think can offer some insight into evaluating trades.
Startup Pick and Future Pick Values
How do we determine what a future rookie pick is worth in terms of startup pick value? For this, we’re going to head to Dynasty Data Lab, a great site that is both visually appealing and extremely helpful. Compiling ADP from startups, we can see where rookie picks are being selected in comparison to their veteran counterparts. We’ll look at the ADP of 2024 rookie picks to have a general idea of future first-round pick values in leagues with a third-round reversal.
Tank Dell (WR-HOU) is currently going off the board at 61st overall. The 2024 1.08 pick is being selected 62nd overall. Our final first-round rookie pick in 2024 is being selected at ADP 88th overall. So, a 2025 first is equivalent to, at worst, an early 8th-round startup pick.
Looking at the players in this ADP range, who would you trade a random 2025 first-round pick for straight up? Probably a decent amount of the players in this range. I’d be shipping off Josh Jacobs (RB-GB), Rachaad White (RB-TB), and Jayden Reed (WR-GB) all for a 2025 first, depending on my team’s situation. Every manager has to draw their own line and decide what their picks are worth, but I’d place my tag right at the mid-6th round, 65th overall.
Rookie Pick Values
When we acquire a future first-round pick in a startup draft, we want to believe that pick will magically wind up the 1.01. The odds of this happening aren’t particularly great, but a manager can dream. Most likely, you traded a solid dynasty piece for that first, and it’ll help that team win games or at least fill a void on their team. If a team trades away their first in a startup, they intend to contend immediately, so we want to be conservative and assume this is a playoff team.
To prevent the heartbreak of overvaluing a future first, it helps to assume that when you acquire a future pick, it will wind up in the mid-to-late range; picture the 1.06-1.09 range. This way, if you land in the range, you get what you expected. If you low-roll and end up with 1.09-1.12, you’re disappointed but didn’t sabotage your trade, and if you miraculously wind up with a 1.01-1.05 pick, you feel on top of the world.
I hope you enjoyed the article! If you have a trade topic you would like to discuss or a trade analyzed, please DM me at @DynastyReviewHQ with your league roster and scoring format. Keep grinding those trade lines! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding #FantasyFootball #DynastyLeague #StartupDraft #TradingStrategy
