After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I am excited to unveil the RB1 Analytical Model. Similar to the WR1 model, this model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. I have dabbled with the algorithm in prior years, but it was not quite ready for prime time. Last year was our beta trial before unveiling to the public this year. The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital. For example, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs last year. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively.
Disclaimer: Opportunity is a significant factor among running backs. If Philadelphia drafts someone ranked highly in the model, they aren’t going to see much of an opportunity to realize their talent with Saquon manning the helm. I advise using these rankings to find value relative to average draft position which can be found in most online draft rooms. For example, when we ranked Malik Nabers ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the WR1 model last year, almost no rookie drafts had a scenario where Nabers was being drafted ahead of Harrison. Harrison was the near unanimous WR1 overall. So you know you are safe to trade back to a spot where you can pick up another asset and still get Nabers.
We covered the top 30 running back prospects in this model. Below you will find those who ranked in the top 15.
15. Jaydon Blue (Texas) – RB1 Model Score: 56
Drafted Round 5, Overall Pick 149 – Dallas Cowboys
Blue has one of the easier paths to starting among the running backs on this list behind Javonte Williams on the Cowboys. That alone makes him a viable pick in the late 3rd to mid-4th round of Dynasty rookie drafts. His analytical profile doesn’t wow you. Among the 31 prospects we ranked for the model, he ranked 18th with 3.5 career yards after contact per attempt.
He excelled most in the passing game and that figures to be where he makes an immediate impact. His 25.2% best season targets per route run ranked second in the class to Ashton Jeanty.
Blue received a 6.11 film grade from NFL.com film legend Lance Zierlein. Zierlein states, “Blue played behind very good backs, so his carry count is lower, but he clearly has talent. He’s a narrow-hipped, linear runner with good speed to threaten wide and attack downfield out of the backfield. He has adequate wiggle in the open field but lacks base strength to break tackles. Blue’s lack of tempo and vision inside gets him behind schedule and could limit how teams use him as a ball carrier. While he can be labeled a “change-of-pace slasher,” his real value will revolve around his ability to mismatch linebackers and threaten defenses as a receiver out of the backfield.”
14. Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech) – RB1 Model Score: 38
Drafted Round 6, Overall Pick 193 – Cincinnati Bengals
All Brooks did during his last two years at Texas Tech was produce. He put up major numbers with 1500 yards rushing in each season. Accordingly, his 27.8 fantasy points per game last season ranked 5th among all prospects in the model. Brooks is a big back. His 31.6 BMI ranked second in the model. Given his size, he isn’t exactly the most explosive back. This is supported by his 7.5% breakaway run rate, which ranked 18th in the class.
Brooks posted a low 5.95 film grade by Lance Zierlein. Zierlein states, “Stout runner and workhorse who handled a whopping 633 touches for Texas Tech’s offense over the last two seasons. Brooks runs low to the ground with a powerful base and instant cut quickness to shake tacklers or elude them in tight quarters. He can keep a run alive but doesn’t have the stride length or acceleration to create space and run away from a rally-hard defense, which could turn him into more of a try-hard grinder. He plays on third downs but hasn’t been all that explosive out of the backfield. Brooks’ productivity and ability to force missed tackles give him a chance to become an NFL backup.”
13. DJ Giddens (Kansas St.) – RB1 Model Score: 38
Drafted Round 5, Overall Pick 151 – Indianapolis Colts
Giddens is an early declare from Kansas State. Early declares get point bumps in the model as it is a vote of confidence from the NFL that they are ready to enter the league early. These prospects receive the intel before the draft that they will receive solid draft capital. Giddens’ 28.3% mark ranked eighth in career missed tackles forced per attempt, which is one of the most important metrics in the RB1 model. His breakaway run percentage of 9.26% was also solid, ranking seventh in the class and demonstrating his ability to complete long, explosive runs.
12. TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio St.) – RB1 Model Score: 46
Drafted Round 2, Overall Pick 38 – New England Patriots
Henderson at 12 overall, you say? It was interesting watching the draft. The top 8 running backs I had in this model were also the top 8 running backs chosen in the draft, with one major exception. That exception was Henderson.
Henderson’s 22% career missed tackles forced per attempt ranked just 26th in the class. This is a highly predictive metric for future fantasy success and is a significant reason Henderson ranks just 12th overall. He scored just 11.8 fantasy points per game last year, ranking 28th. He excels in his explosiveness, ranking 4th overall in breakaway run rate.
11. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Arizona) – RB1 Model Score: 48
Drafted Round 7, Overall Pick 245 – Washington Commanders
As surprising as Henderson was at 12, Merritt is equally as surprising, entering the analytical model rankings at 11. I use statistics accumulated at the FBS level only for all players to keep everything on a level playing field so this includes Merritt’s production at New Mexico and Arizona only. And boy was that production impressive.
Merritt’s 35.3% missed tackles forced per attempt ranked 3rd behind Bhaysul Tuten and Ashton Jeanty. Merritt was able to rank this high despite getting a significant ding to his overall score for his level of competition. He enters a backfield that is lacking in explosiveness in Washington. That is an element he can bring as his 11.1% breakaway run rate ranked second in the class.
Merritt posted a 6.18 in Lance Zierlein’s film grade. Zeirlein states, “Eligibility issues sidelined Croskey-Merritt for all but one game in 2024, but his skills were on full display at the East-West Shrine Bowl in January. He’s a quick processor with adequate size and impressive cut quickness to find yards in a crowded workspace. He has one-cut talent and the ability to break runs sharply across the grain when necessary. He finishes runs with purpose, too. He’ll be a 24-year-old rookie with below-average third-down value, but his talent and creativity pop quickly on tape and give him a chance to become a good RB2 at the next level.”
10. Trevor Etienne (Georgia) – RB1 Model Score: 54
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 114 – Carolina Panthers
While not elite in any one particular metric, Etienne performed solidly in all of them. His best attribute was his explosiveness, as exhibited by his 9.6% breakaway run mark. This ranked fifth in the class, just behind TreVeyon Henderson’s 9.8%.
Etienne enters a favorable running back room in Carolina. Chubba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle are obstacles Etienne can overcome. His immediate path to relevance may be in the passing game as a 3rd down back. His 15.6% targets per route run rate showed he was an integral part of the Georgina pass game.
Etienne posted a 6.15 film grade. Zierlein writes, “He lacks the speed and power of his brother, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Travis Etienne, but Trevor wins with vision, elusiveness, and efficiency. He is capable inside and does a nice job of staying tight to the track, but could struggle to get tough yards. He runs with average burst wide but sets up tacklers and gets in and out of cuts without losing speed. Etienne catches with sticky hands, evades tacklers in space, and has a very good understanding of protections. He has middle-round value but could become a third-down option early in his career.”
9. Dylan Sampson (Tennessee) – RB1 Model Score: 54
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 126 – Cleveland Browns
Zierlein is very high on Sampson, ranking him third in the class with a 6.36 score. Sampson was also one of only six running backs in this class with a PFF rush grade above 90.0. Sampson’s lack of athleticism is a red flag. Per Kent Lee Platte, “The odds of an RB with a #RAS over 8.00 making a pro bowl, ignoring all other college stats and production, is about 1 in 8.
Zierlein states, “Compact back with good instincts and run-after-contact ability that propelled him to stardom in his lone season as a starter. Sampson separates himself from other backs in the class with an impressive feel for timing, spacing, and blocking scheme. He sees lane development in real-time and is disciplined to stay on the designed track, but he can flip a switch and improvise when traffic mounts. He can wiggle around tacklers or break free from their grasp. Ball security and pass protection improvement will be early priorities for his next coaching staff. Sampson plays with the instincts of a seasoned veteran and has the talent to build on what he started in 2024.”
The odds of an RB with a #RAS under 5.00 making a pro bowl, ignoring all other college stats and production, is about 1 in 80.” Sampson’s 6.49 Relative Athletic Score ranked just 27th among the prospects evaluated.
8. Jarquez Hunter (Auburn) – RB1 Model Score: 61
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 117 – Los Angeles Rams
Hunter is, without a doubt, a “my guy”. He ranks far higher in this analytical model than he does in consensus draft circles, where he ranks just 17th overall. Hunter is solid across the board in his analytics performance. He tied for the overall career lead in this class for yards per carry, which is impressive, considering he did this against SEC defenses. Hunter was one of only seven players with a career missed tackles forced per attempt mark over 30%. He was also one of only six players with a career yards after contact mark above 4.0.
Rookie running backs with college career:
- +30% missed tackles forced per attempt
- +6 yards per carry
- +9% breakaway run% % (+15 yards)
- +4.0 yards after contact
Ashton Jeanty (of course)
and
Jarquez Hunter
7. Cam Skattebo (Arizona St.) RB1 Model Score 72
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 105 – New York Giants
Skattebo shines in several important predictive metrics. His career missed tackles forced per attempt rate of 34.3% ranks fourth in the class. Skattebo’s PFF rush grade ranks second overall to Ashton Jeanty. The question is whether Skattebo’s bully-ball style of play will translate to the NFL. He lacks explosion. His career 5.9% explosive run rate (runs over 15 plus yards) ranked just 28th overall.
His fourth-round draft capital was a little disappointing, but his landing spot was fantastic. He just needs to beat out seventh-rounder Tyrone Tracey and journeyman Devin Singletary for touches. This lack of competition has driven his Dynasty rookie price to be the highest among any Day 3 drafted prospect.
Skattebo received a 6.16 film grade from Lance Zierlein. Zierlein states, “Carnage creator with a compact frame and elite contact balance. Skattebo can break through second-level tacklers and careen off bodies for extended yards after contact. He reads his blocks quickly and is more elusive in the early stages of the run than he’s probably given credit for. He lacks top-end speed and will have to contend with bigger, better tacklers on the next level. Skattebo’s effectiveness as a receiver out of the backfield should add to his draft value. His physicality and edge should bode well for him as a complementary back with three-down value who is capable of helping an offense wear down the defense.”
6. Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) – RB1 Model Score: 81
Drafted Round 3, Overall Pick 83 – Pittsburgh Steelers
We have a tier jump when we get into the top six running backs. These are all potential first-rounders (or early second-round) in Dynasty Rookie drafts. The RB1 model ranks Kaleb Johnson third overall vs. the consensus mock draft ranking of five.
Johnson wasn’t outstanding in any one particular advanced predictive metric. Instead, he was just rock solid across the board. Whereas above, we saw Hampton with the red flag of his 21st career ranking of missed tackles forced per attempt, Johnson’s lowest ranking was 15th in career yards per carry. Johnson’s strongest showing was his 27.7 fantasy points per game last season, good for sixth overall.
His landing spot was perfect for him. He is Najee Harris 2.0, and that is what the Steelers want. He is a player who is used to stacked boxes and picking up what is there without a lot of negative plays.
Johnson scored a 6.21 in his NFL.com film grad,e good for seventh overall in that metric. Zierlein writes, “Johnson is built like a bruiser, but his style is more finesse, preferring to win with tempo and decisiveness. He keeps his runs on time and on track while allowing blockers to do their job. He’s not overly aggressive, but he has the size and strength to break tackles and grab extra yards at the finish. He runs with below-average creativity and cut quickness but has consistent linear play speed to pop chunk runs. He can catch, but his three-down value takes a hit because of his struggles in pass pro. Johnson’s traits and running style make him a projectable fit in a two-back system with the upside to take on a bigger chunk down the road.”
5. Bhayshul Tuten (Virginia Tech) – RB1 Model Score: 82
Drafted Round 4, Overall Pick 104 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Tuten is an analytical darling, ranking higher in the RB1 model than the Mock Draft community expects him to go. He ranks second in the class in career missed tackles forced per attempt to Ashton Jeanty, with an impressive 36.2% mark. His PFF rush grade was a red flag, as his 80.5 mark ranked just 24th in the class. He is a top-tier athlete with a Relative athletic score of 9.37, ranking sixth.
Reports out of Jacksonville are that the new regime is not enamored with Travis Etienne. Tuten’s explosiveness would be a nice marriage with the more brute force style from Tank Bigsby.
Tuten scored a 6.29 for his NFL.com profile. Zierlein writes of Tuten, “If you spend too much time focusing on the small inconsistencies of Tuten’s college game, you run the risk of overlooking the match he is for the pro game. He’s an explosive athlete with average size but a compact frame. He has elite straight-line speed and easy hips to make sudden cuts and turns. He’s fairly average at reading the front and running with early decisiveness, but creates with wiggle, power, and speed. Drops and fumbles are a concern, but runners with his contact balance, power,r and home run speed put tremendous stress on defenses over four quarters. Tuten could become a starting-caliber back with three-down value.”
4. Quinshon Judkins (Ohio St.) – RB1 Model Score: 87
Drafted Round 2, Overall Pick 36 – Cleveland Browns
Judkins is a bit of a polarizing prospect in the draft community. Judkins is an early declare, which is a vote of confidence from the NFL that he will receive sufficient draft capital to warrant leaving college early. He is the best athlete among running back prospects, scoring a 9.89 in Relative Athletic Score. Judkins’ biggest red flag is his career yards after contact per attempt, which ranks just 22nd overall.
Film legend Lance Zierlein gave Judkins a score of 6.33, ranking fourth in the class. Zierlein writes, “Judkins is a productive runner possessing good size and great contact aggression. His running style is both urgent and a bit chaotic. He runs with good burst inside but is more collision-based than wiggle-oriented when maneuvering through the lane. He’s efficient on runs outside the tackle box, but he has a tough time outracing pursuit to create explosive runs. He is wired and built for a heavier carry count and short-yardage success, but the disparity in yards per carry between Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, despite running behind the same line, is telling. Judkins might need to be paired with a slasher, but he has the ingredients needed to become a three-down RB1.”
3. Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) – RB1 Model Score: 93
Drafted Round 1, Overall Pick 22 – Los Angeles Chargers
The former Tar Heel excelled in multiple categories. Hampton’s 28.6 fantasy points per game in 2024 ranked fourth among running backs in the class. He is an early declare, which is a vote of confidence from the NFL that prospects get that they are ready to enter the league and receive solid draft capital at their first eligibility.
Hampton is an excellent athlete, as evidenced by his 9.70 Relative Athletic Score, which ranked fourth in the class.
His career missed tackles forced per attempt rate of 23.9% is a red flag, however. This is one of the most predictive advanced metrics, and he only ranked 21st in the class.
Hampton received a film grade of 6.35, good for third in the class. Zierlein writes, “High-volume battering ram with a three-ingredient recipe of size, strength, and aggression. Hampton is a linear runner lacking creativity and wiggle, but once the gas is engaged, he runs like a downhill truck whose brake lines have been cut. He has the base, balance, and power to batter tacklers and reignite runs after contact, but he fails to recognize alternative run lanes that offer easier paths and more yardage. He needs to work on his pass protection, but he can create positive plays on swing passes and screens. Hampton is a tone-setting future starter who can handle a heavy workload, but he absorbs rare levels of heavy contact that could create durability or longevity issues if he doesn’t learn to pick and choose his battles.”
2. R.J. Harvey (Central Florida) – RB1 Model Score: 99
Drafted Round 2, Overall Pick 60 – Denver Broncos
I have to admit I have a bit of a man-crush on the analytical profile of R.J. Harvey. What he was able to accomplish in the Big 12 as the sole focus of opposing defense was nothing short of remarkable. The mock draft community has yet to catch on, but I find it very hard to see him lasting beyond day two of the NFL draft. He led all prospects in the class in breakaway run rate (15+yard runs), showing rare explosiveness that teams covet. He was one of only seven running backs to post a career missed tackles forced per attempt rate above 30%. Harvey ranked third overall in fantasy points per game this past season.
When he was drafted 60th overall by the Broncos, most saw it as a massive reach. He was being mocked to go primarily in the 4th or 5th round prior to the draft. I am happy to see Sean Payton saw what we saw in Harvey. He should immediately take the reins over in that Bronco backfield. You should be targeting him in the late first to early second round of Dynasty rookie drafts.
1. Ashton Jeanty (Boise St.) – RB1 Model Score: 175
Drafted Round 1, Overall Pick 1 – Las Vegas Raiders
Simply put, Bijan Robinson is the only prospect remotely close to Jeanty analytically in recent years. Jeanty nearly doubled the second-best prospect in the RB1 model score. The distance between Jeanty and the RB2 was more than the difference in scores between the RB2 and RB21. Jeanty ranked first in several key metrics that feed my RB1 model.
Those metrics include:
- 34.0 fantasy points per game last season
- A record 96.6 PFF rush grade was a record
- 37.8% missed tackles forced per attempt
- 4.8% yards after contact
- 7.15 film grade by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com
Jeanty’s only flaw is that he did not play in a Power Four conference, so his competition level paled compared to other top prospects in the class.
Jeanty received a rare rating above seven from Lance Zierlein, coming in at 7.15. Zierlein states, “Jeanty plays a position that has become devalued on draft day, but his unique talent and the resurgence of the run game in the NFL should force teams to reconsider that factor when weighing his value. He’s the ultimate yardage creator, with the talent and skill set to succeed independent of the quality of his blocking. Jeanty’s speed forces linebackers to flow hard outside, creating cutback lanes and chunk runs, while his vision, balance, and elusiveness get it done along the interior. The threat of what he can do on the ground should create ideal play-action opportunities for his team, allowing his next play-caller to unburden a young quarterback or any other passer being asked to shoulder too much of the offense. He’s compact and muscular, but there could be some minor concerns surrounding his massive workload in 2024. This top-flight running back is capable of becoming the face of an offense in a league where the pendulum might be swinging back to the running game. Jeanty has future All-Pro talent.”
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