Most rookie drafts are done by now, though there may still be a few going on. If you are reading this and you still have some late-round draft picks for this year, don’t give them up just yet! You may think they are worthless or that you don’t have room on your roster for these assets, but there can and are league winners to be found in the third round or later of rookie drafts.
I play almost exclusively in the FFPC dynasty league format and participated in 29 such rookie drafts back in May. Earlier this offseason I looked at a breakdown of my all-time dynasty records and did a breakdown of all my rookie draft picks going back to 2016 to see if I could find some actionable patterns.
I have heard so many owners say something to the effect of hating third-round picks or later. That any potential trade partner shouldn’t even bother including them in any offers. Some owners are almost militant about it. Others also value them similarly low, but as such are easily willing to add them to deals, and this certainly includes during the rookie draft itself. Target those owners!
I Like To Buy & Sell Large Numbers Of Late Round Picks Whenever I Can
I am the fantasy football embodiment of the clawing-for-that-inch approach that Coach Al Pacino preaches here:
In FFPC, the rookie draft also includes all free agents (FA), and at the end of March we must cut down to 16 players, including a K and D, so the FA pool is actually somewhat deep and by the end of the second round or beginning of the third there are usually veterans on the board that will be taken. This adds at least a little bit of value to rookies that get pushed down in the draft because of it.
FFPC league winning (or franchise-changing) draft picks from the last few years:
I am including those late second-round examples because part of the lesson here is that by acquiring extra picks from later rounds it becomes easier to move up and acquire second-round picks, particularly if you are willing to sell aging, rotting dollars for three quarters once in a while. You can read more about such a concept in my Chasing Ships and Flipping Pieces series, where I also dive into other roster management techniques that can be particularly useful when thinking about how to obtain roster flexibility. Why?
Rostering Late Picks Is Really Hard
Take a look at some of those names. Not every year is going to be the same but some years can really yield a treasure trove of fantasy-winning assets if you take the right dart throws late. The really tough question is how to develop them on your roster. We only carry 20 players in-season in FFPC, so taking a chance on a rookie TE you grab at 4.01 (or much later – Kittle went as late as 6th round in many of these) is great but how do you hold someone like that long enough without sacrificing bye week flexibility and such? Well, I talk about that a lot in my FFPC themed articles, but for now, here is a breakdown of how my picks have fared over the last few years, with the caveat that 2020 picks (and to a lesser degree 2019 picks) are pliable in terms of assumptions I’ve made about who is a hit or a miss. For example, I am calling Michael Pittman a hit here, but in truth that remains to be seen, and in a year’s time I will revisit this chart and adjust accordingly to the best of my judgment.
It can also be difficult to hedge this objectively from the standpoint of sometimes a pick doesn’t hit but I can trade that asset while it is at its high point or close to it. I’m not sure what the best way is to include that in this breakdown. The Lynch pick in the figure above, for example, was really a miss because he was past his prime and didn’t do much. But I sold him for a startable asset and a future first that became Metcalf. I drafted N’Keal Harry at 1.05 in 2019 but traded him for A.J. Brown (who had been taken at 1.09) and 2.02 OTC a little later in the draft, where I took Singletary. Is Harry a miss there? I don’t know, but to be consistent I called that pick a miss here.
I mean everybody hit in the first round in 2020, didn’t they? Are there any busts from last year? I didn’t get him anywhere but I would call Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) a hit here despite owners feeling like they got burned. I don’t know that getting less of a return than you would if you had taken Taylor should be counted as a miss. CEH is a fine pick.
Note, those 12 hits in green from the fourth round and later are comprised of three shares of Kittle, two shares of Waller, and two of Gabriel Davis, who is another example of someone I am calling a hit but that could change. However, even if he falls flat it is worth noting you might have been able to get a first-round pick for him this offseason and that kind of profit can change a franchise around even if the player ends up busting eventually.
Conclusion? Don’t ignore those later rounds. You should be hustling and grinding to find those late rounds gems and to acquire capital to make such picks. You should also be thinking about where on your roster you might be hoarding some cloggers that you wouldn’t even necessarily be starting for you if you needed them to. Maybe you can sell them for some flexible capital.
What Are Some Good Late Round Targets This Year If You’re Somehow Still Drafting?
Josh Palmer, Nico Collins, Dyami Brown, Kenny Gainwell, Kylen Granson, Jacob Harris, Amon-Ra St Brown. I have several shares of each of those players and for better or worse they will be adding to my hits and misses metrics for this next year. I can also name a few players I have taken a lot of that I am already considering to be misses. Cornell Powell, Dez Fitzpatrick, Gerrid Doaks are all going to drag down my 21.1% lifetime hit rate on fourth or later picks. Lol. But just maybe I snag another diamond in the rough like I have been able to do almost every season.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
