Tale of the Tape is a series where I evaluate two players closely regarded by the Mock Draft community based on a series of metrics that have proven to be predictive of future Dynasty success. After the evaluation, a winner is chosen between the two of whom you should be targeting in your Dynasty rookie drafts when both are on the board, and it is your pick.
This research is a precursor to my annual WR1 rankings, which forecast the future success of incoming rookie wide receiver prospects by incorporating 12 advanced metrics into a model. Each metric is weighted differently within the model and, when combined, gives each player a single score, the WR1 rating. To see last year’s WR1 rankings, you may click here. This year’s pre-draft WR1 model rankings will be published in April, so stay tuned!
This is the fourth article in this series. The prior three can be viewed here. The two players I will be evaluating in this article are the consensus two best wide receivers in this draft class: Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. Before I start, I feel it is important to say both of these players are elite prospects. This is simply an unbiased interpretation of analytics that has proven to successfully predict future Dynasty stars and busts. The metrics are not cherry-picked. The same ones have been used for years to evaluate all prospects. Harrison Jr has been the presumptive no-brainer top overall wide receiver for multiple years now. Is that what the data says is still the case? The answer may (or may not) surprise you.
NFL mock draft database currently has Marvin Harrison Jr’s. consensus NFL draft position as 3, while Malik Nabers is listed at 5.
Tale of the Tape
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 rating scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declared. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
As such, this is one of the more influential inputs into the WR1 model.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are both early declares. This is one feather in both of their caps in their analytical profile, but neither gets a leg up in the analysis to this point.
Breakout Year
A breakout year is defined as the year when the prospect eclipses a 20% team share of the receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Like the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production during his senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly.
Typically, you will see a prospect scrape by the 20% breakout threshold in their first year, overcoming that threshold.
Harrison and Nabers both took a howitzer to that barrier, annihilating it into dust and shrapnel.
After the exodus of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Harrison Jr. exploded onto the scene with 1263 yards and 14 touchdowns as C.J. Stroud‘s clear alpha receiver.
Nabers similarly exploded his sophomore year with 1017 yards, accounting for 27% of the Tigers’ receiving yards at the tender age of 19.
Both of these breakout seasons were extremely impressive and were the first step into super-stardom at the NFL level for Nabers and Harrison Jr.
*Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game (RYPTPAPG). Best Season
10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPAPG above 3.0.
Harrison and Naberson once again both posted elite RYPTPAPG results.
Harrison’s best season RYPTPAPG was a tidy 3.41.
However, Naber’s best season mark was an elite 3.81.
As good as Harrison performed in this metric, Nabers was simply better. We now have our first leader in this head-to-head analytical battle, with Nabers edging into a small lead.
Weighted Dominator – Best Season
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
When the results are extremely close in a faceoff, I tend to call it a wash and award neither prospect the plus mark in the category. That was almost the case here, but I went ahead and gave Harrison Jr. the win with an albeit slight margin of victory.
Harrison Jr. and Nabers both easily cleared the elite threshold once again with marks of 39.3% and 37.7%, respectively. Where Harrison separates from Nabers is in his red zone proficiency. Harrison accounted for 32 touchdowns in his three-year career, while Nabers crossed the line 21 times.
We are back at an analytical dead heat in this faceoff to which prospect analytically is forecasted to have the better Dynasty career.
Contested Target Rate – Last Season
This is a new input into the WR1 model this year, as it has proven to be a predictive metric to identify wide receiver busts.
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The contested target rate is the number of contested targets divided by a player’s total targets. This is, in essence, a way to measure how much separation a prospect is getting. The logic behind this being predictive of busts is that these players can bully their way to production in college. But in the NFL, with bigger, stronger, faster players, the contested catch prowess doesn’t hold up near as well as elite separators.
Ideally, you want to see this rate under 20%.
“Houston, we have a problem.”
There is only one red flag in either of these elite prospects’ otherwise flawless analytical profiles, and this is it. You never want to be on a shortlist of famous busts like Denzel Mims, Quentin Johnston, and Terrace Marshall, but that is exactly where Marvin Harrison Jr. is here. His 26.3% contested target rate proves he was not getting elite separation at the college level. The big question is, will he be able to succeed where others haven’t by overpowering NFL cornerbacks? This single metric is enough for me to fade Harrison and potentially trade that rookie draft pick to the many people frothing at the mouth to select him and give up a fortune to do it.
Nabers, on the other hand, posted a solid 16.9% mark that shows up on film with his unique acceleration, creating easy separation from powerless defensive backs.
Nabers pulls into the lead once again in the head-to-head battle with Harrison.
Yards Per Route Run – Best Season
Yards per route run is one of the most predictive metrics for future Fantasy success. As such, it is weighted more significantly in the WR1 model formula than other metrics. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had the best season YPRR above 3.0. This was one of the only metrics Puka Nacua shone in vs. his peers last year.
Nabers shined in this metric with an outstanding 3.81 yards per route run mark. This handily outclassed Harrison’s stellar performance of 3.44.
This performance in one of the most predictive metrics of future Dynasty success moves Nabers solidly ahead of Harrison Jr. in this analytical faceoff.
Film Grades: PFF Receiving Grade – Last Season and Lance Zierlein
It is critical for any analytical model to also incorporate a quantifiable film grade.
PFF has their graders charting every game of the NFL season. They then give these players grades based on their designated criteria. 11 of the top 12 players in the WR1 model had a PFF receiving grade above 85.0.
Lance Zierlein is a film scouting legend who has been writing draft profiles for NFL.com for years. I respect him immensely for his past success and his boldness in not simply following the pack with his evaluations.
Once again, Nabers clears Harrison Jr. in both film PFF and Lance Zierlein film grades. Naber’s 93.5 PFF grade and 6.84 grade from Zierlein were both tops in this class.
Nabers has now pulled handily ahead of Harrison Jr. in this process.
Career Fantasy Points Per Game
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Nabers finished with 16.6 career fantasy points per game, to Harrison’s 16.2.
We are calling this category equal. This was not an elite performance for either prospect but was certainly solid, ranking first and second among all early declares in the class.
Summary
As mentioned in the preamble to this article, Harrison Jr. has been the near-unanimous number-one overall wide receiver for two years. Nabers has been steadily rising during that time to the point that some circles are now debating who will have the better career.
Utilizing analytics, extracts, and pre-conceived bias and simply using data to predict who will have the better Dynasty career based on historical predictiveness.
The data clearly shows Nabers has a superior analytical profile. The biggest concern for me is Harrison Jr’s 26.3% contested target rate. He would be an outlier if he is a top 5 superstar for years to come with that data point.
In rookie drafts, if I am in a position to draft Harrison Jr., I am putting that pick on the block and exploring my options via trade. If I can move back and still get Nabers, Brock Bowers, or Jayden Daniels, plus get an elite asset package, I am entertaining it.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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