Welcome back, DFF family! In this article, I’d like to review some real trades I’ve made within the past three weeks in my Dynasty leagues and discuss my thought process behind each trade. These trades were all completed in the latter part of the fantasy regular season, a time when most owners have established a team identity and are beginning to push in as contenders or tear down as rebuilders. The second half of the fantasy season can be quite active with trading. Early in the year, everyone has their priors on the players they drafted, and many suffer from the endowment effect, overvaluing their guys simply because they are on their team. It can also be more challenging to trade picks early in the year because we are less confident in where those picks may end up. The latter part of the season is when activity often picks up, as owners feel that sense of urgency to make a deal that either makes them a top contender or sets up their team for an earlier draft pick and more appreciating assets.
Ideally, you want to avoid being that middling team that finishes 7th or 8th or stumbles into the playoffs with little hope of advancement. When you have owners taking their teams in opposite directions, it opens up the opportunity to get some trades completed that are mutually beneficial. These late-season trades can be the quickest and most efficient deals, in my opinion. As desperation sets in with injuries or unforeseen circumstances, dynasty owners are more willing to “lose” a trade at face value in order to keep the train on the tracks. Now, let’s take a look at a few of the trades I completed.
Trade #1
10 team Dynasty 1 QB
Completed November 16th
Current Record: 11-2 (1st)
Max PF: 1st
This trade came from my home league, the only 1QB Dynasty league I am in. My team was 9-2 at the time, and I was still sitting in first place. I had a formidable roster everywhere except for RB. Rhamondre was finally recovering some of the value he had lost earlier in the season, and I wanted to take advantage and “tier up” to a potential league-winning RB.
The owner I traded with was hovering around that 6-8th spot and decided to wave the white flag. He grabbed the younger RB and Nick Chubb, who, in theory, should only increase in value between now and next season, assuming there are no setbacks in his recovery. This is a trade where, if we reevaluate next August, my side will likely be the side with less value. But I needed that final piece to ensure my team had the best possible odds to win it all this year. Ekeler has not done much since I made this trade in mid-November, but he has a highly favorable fantasy playoff schedule, and that’s when I need him most, anyway.
Trade # 2
12 Team Dynasty Superflex
Completed December 4th
Current Record: 7-6 (7th)
Max PF: 4th
This trade had an interesting turn of events after it went through on December 4th, just hours before the league’s trade deadline. I’ve been sitting around 3rd or 4th in max PF in this league and felt I had a competitive roster. However, injuries have killed me. I currently have Kirk Cousins, Mark Andrews, and Tank Dell on my IR. My only other TEs were Tyler Higbee and Hayden Hurst, and my other QBs were Lamar Jackson, Kenny Pickett, and Will Levis.
When I made this trade (Monday evening), I was 7-5 and in 4th place, ahead in my matchup by 52 points, and my opponent only had Jake Browning and Joe Mixon left to play. I assumed I had won and secured my spot in the playoffs at 8-5. Well, it goes without saying that things didn’t turn out as planned. I’m now in 7th place in a “must-win” matchup to hopefully secure my playoff spot again.
I wouldn’t have made this trade if I had known how last Monday would transpire. However, I’m still in playoff contention, so I don’t hate the trade. Swapping Higbee for Kelce has drastically improved my odds of winning in Week 14, and if I get into the playoffs, I’ll have a fighting chance with Kelce at TE. And now, with Pickett hurt (who was already worthless) and Levis cooling off, Flacco may be my QB2 in this deciding week.
Currently, the 2024 1st is projected to be the 1.07, and the 2024 2nd was mine, so it should be a mid-round pick (rookie draft is determined by final regular season standings in this league). If I miss the playoffs and Kelce retires after this season, this could go down as one of the all-time worst trades I’ve made. But at the time, it seemed logical, and my process made sense. I still have my own first and three seconds in 2024, with a pretty deep roster, so this trade shouldn’t put me back too much, regardless.
Trade # 3
10 Team Dynasty 2 QB
Completed November 30th
Current Record: 1-12 (9th)
Max PF: 9th
This team was one of my “productive struggle” teams, sitting second to last, but I like my roster for 2024 and beyond, not even considering my picks. I have a Lamar/Andrews stack, some veteran producers like Geno Smith and Diontae Johnson, and a plethora of rookies and young, appreciating assets. To name a few, I have Garrett Wilson, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Rashee Rice, Demario Douglas, Michael Mayer, Keaton Mitchell, and now Luke Musgrave. On top of this, in 2024, I have my own first (1.02), the projected 1.04, three seconds, two thirds, and two fourths. This team has the potential to go from 9th to 1st if things roll my way next year.
The owner I traded with was in first place and in a tight race to earn a playoff bye. He was dealing with a bye week from Josh Allen and Tommy DeVito, and C.J. Stroud was his only QB projected to score points in Week 13. This is a 2QB league rather than Superflex, and understandably, he didn’t want to leave that spot vacant and potentially take an L that took him out of the bye-week spot. He decided to give up his promising young TE, Luke Musgrave, to buy some guaranteed points in his QB2 spot.
With this being a 2QB league, Carr’s dynasty value is more inflated, so I think this was a fair trade overall. I have two other excellent TE options on my roster heading into 2024, but I was simply looking at adding young, appreciating assets rather than filling a positional need. I should be able to flip one of these three guys for a positional need next year if need be.
Trade #4
14 Team Dynasty Superflex
Completed November 17th
7-6 (7th)
Max PF: 9th
This trade was one I made shortly after the Joe Burrow injury. All season, my record suggested I was a fringe-playoff team, but I knew from my max PF numbers that my team was pretty fraudulent, and I didn’t stand a chance. So, I decided to reach out to the Joe Burrow owner, a pretty strong contender, and see how I could assist. Considering the circumstances and the corner he was backed into, I’d say he got a good return for Burrow. Russ has been a high-end QB2 this year (arguably a low-end QB1 in a 14-team league), DeVonta has WR1 upside and is an elite dynasty asset, Charbonnet is a young RB with upside, and DeVito is at least scoring points this season, making him a fine enough QB3 for the remainder of the year.
That said, I love the move for my team here. I already had Patrick Mahomes, and adding Joe Burrow to have two elite QBs for the foreseeable future puts me in an incredible spot heading into 2024. Having two top 6 quarterbacks in a 12-team Superflex league is awesome enough; having them in a 14-team league gives me such a positional advantage over the field. I should safely be competing as long as both stay healthy. I still have my own 2024 first in this league, two seconds, and several other core pieces like Sam LaPorta, Tee Higgins, and Javonte Williams.
My biggest mistake in this league is that I had a foot in both camps for too long, and now I’m stuck in the middle of the standings. If I win this week, I’ll be in the playoffs (I play the 6th seed). My expectations are low for the postseason, but I’ll let it ride out at this point. In a single-elimination format, anything can happen!
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
