Last year, De’Von Achane ranked first in rushing yards over expected per attempt for running backs with over 100 rushes. This year, Achane ranks last in this same category. (Source NFL Pro Next Gen Stats)
That is #notgood. However, his fantasy value has never been higher as he has proven to be durable, and the Dolphins have unlocked his potential in the passing game. This presents us with a conundrum. I typically like to move on from running backs that are near the bottom of the ranks for key advanced rushing metrics that measure the player in a vacuum vs. the team situation. Metrics such as missed tackles forced per attempt, rushing yards over expected per attempt, and expected points added per attempt. Rushing yards over expected is exactly what it sounds like. The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays.
Fantasy managers need to remember that NFL coaches and general managers don’t care how a player does in fantasy. They care about these real-life metrics. It is the Rachaad White scenario. I was very out on Rachaad White despite him being the number 10 running back in fantasy points per game in 2023. His rushing efficiency metrics were terrible. Fast forward to this year, and he lost his job to Bucky Irving. The one huge difference between Achane’s current year’s inefficiency and White’s inefficiency is we know Achane has been uber-efficient before. White never was. So it stands to be seen if Achane could regain some of his efficiency were the Dolphins to lower his load to be more in line with 2023 and establish some of their scheme advantages.
Achane’s value in the Dynasty community is currently RB 4 overall. That is a lot of value to insulate with a fantastic running back class coming up in the 2025 draft. Jaylen Wright and Raheem Mostert don’t appear to be the answer. I do think the Dolphins will consider a more rushing centric-running back in the 2025 draft to ease Achane’s workload and attempt to return him to his 2023 efficiency.
Now here is the bull case for Achane. Receiving running backs are the exact type of archetype running back you want in Dynasty, They are typically the model of consistency in a position known for its inconsistency. Alvin Kamara is the most high-profile example of the consistency of receiving-centric running backs. Kamara is currently in his eighth year in the NFL. From his rookie year to now he has finished with the following rankings in fantasy points per game (4,4,8,1,4,13,3,3). His receptions by year from his rookie year to now are (81,81,81,83,47,57,75,59).
Prime Austin Ekeler was another example. From 2019 to 2022, Ekeler finished (6,9,2,1) in fantasy points per game. His reception totals in those years were (92,54,70,107). Then, of course, you have the fantasy pinnacle with Christian McCaffrey, who combined elite rushing with elite receiving. In McCaffrey’s four years since his rookie season in which he has played more than eight games, he has been either the number 1 or 2 ranked running back in fantasy points per game.
Achane’s 63 receptions are second only to Alvin Kamara’s 64 on the season. He ranks seventh among qualified running backs in yards per route run. Solid. Not elite. His target share is a stout 17%. Excellent for a running back. The other context here is the Dolphins’ offense has been a disaster vs. what it was last year. You have to believe there will be changes in the off-season to their approach.
So here is where we need to prioritize value insulation. In my opinion, there is more downside risk to his current Dynasty price than upside. Here is the range of players the Dynasty community values similarly to Achane.
In Superflex Dynasty leagues, I would feel comfortable trading Achane for anyone on the above list, save maybe Drake London. This is not purely an indictment on Achane. As a matter of fact, I will likely be moving most of my valuable running back shares not named Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, or Jahmyr Gibbs. The 2025 class is fantastic with running backs and weak with wide receivers and quarterbacks. So, it naturally makes sense that existing NFL quarterback and wide receiver assets would be more secure.
Achane’s advanced metrics portend a future timeshare. The hope is that he will regain his efficiency in that scenario. However, all of the other assets here have fewer red flags, in my opinion, and in return, less downside risk. Achane’s upside from where he is now is limited, while his downside is significant. This is what value insulation is all about. Make sure your asset is the most secure with the least downside risk possible.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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