Trying to forecast the dynasty stock market can be a daunting process. We have to account for what seems to be limitless variables. Coaching changes, draft picks, age, and even contracts all factor into whether we should buy, hold, or sell a player.
“IT’S JUST BUSINESS. EVERYTHING IS JUST BUSINESS WITH US: BUY FOR A NICKEL, SELL FOR A DIME.” – SPIROS “VONDAS” –THE WIRE
In my opinion, no quote could ever better encapsulate the meaning of “Buying Low and Selling High” than the one posted above. Whereas Vondas was referring to something else entirely, this quote always comes to mind when pondering the trade market. Below I will analyze the buys, sells, holds from the Indianapolis Colts. But I would like to make one point clear before we dive into those players. Each league and team construction will greatly determine if a player is a buy, sell, or hold. I hope this list will help you in your quest to dynasty dominance. Enjoy.
Andrew Luck, QB
This offseason will be the last time to get Luck at his current price. With an ADP hovering around 40** over the past two seasons I expect his ADP to jump enough that he is worth the investment. His price is this low for a couple of reasons. His offensive line has been subpar, to say the least, and has led him to have multiple injuries. The other being the lack of offensive playmakers on the Colts roster over the years.
The team has finally got Luck some offensive help but have gone with more quantity than quality, but he’s talented enough to elevate this roster. He may never get back to his ADP of 8** from 2015 but certainly going to be the best QB over the next ten years.
Erik Swoope, TE
Swoope was a basketball player at the University of Miami before entering the 2014 NFL Draft. He went undrafted but was signed by the Colts the next day. He is the epitome of being raw. A very good athlete that had never played organized football is ready to breakout in year four. Currently, Swoope is going after pick 200* and with only Jack Doyle standing in his way. I think that’s bound to skyrocket. Even if he is not able to pass up Doyle this year, the Colts run enough two tight end sets for Swoope to get his targets. My recommendation is to make sure Swoope is on your roster if you are in league with 25+ roster spots.
Kamar Aiken, WR
The Colts signed Kamar Aiken to a one-year deal this past May. Aiken was a disappointment for fantasy owners in 2016 after having a breakout year in 2015. With the addition of Mike Wallace and the gradual increase in snaps for Perriman, there wasn’t much to go around for Aiken. But Aiken will enter training camp as WR3 for the Colts and gives them something they haven’t had for awhile, a big red zone target.
Aiken is 6-2 215 and is the most physical WR, outside of Donte Moncrief, on the Colts roster and could easily win an outside starting WR spot if Moncrief continues to battle injuries. Even if Moncrief can stay healthy the Colts can deploy 3 WR sets with Aiken and Moncrief on the outside and Hilton manning the slot. Aiken’s ADP grew to around 145** last summer and has dropped outside of the top 200* after landing in a better situation. I think he is a must own for a Moncrief owner and should be owned in most big roster dynasty leagues.
Donte Moncrief, WR
I think an argument could be made to buy, sell and hold Moncrief. The buy crowd will mention his injury history and if he just stays healthy he will be a highly coveted asset. But the truth is the matter is I don’t think we have seen enough for him to live up to his cost. With an ADP of 46* many people will feel like they are selling low if they give up now since he ADP was up to pick 20** last year. But when you account for his injury history and that he will be a free agent at the end of this season, it would kill his built in cost if he was to end up in a different situation with a subpar QB. My recommendation is to sell him but don’t sell below his current market value. Someone will be willing to gamble on him while you are using your acquired pieces to win a championship.
Frank Gore, RB
The window to buy Gore was before the draft. His ADP had fallen to almost his lowest ever at around pick 210*. Most everyone believed the Colts would select someone like Dalvin Cook or Christian Mccaffrey and Gore would lose all his receiving opportunities. But since the Colts did not address the RB position until round 4 by selecting Marlon Mack his ADP has crept back up to almost the 170’s*. Mack will be able to spell Gore but not take enough meaningful touches to lower Gore’s output. My recommendation is to keep him if you’re competing for a championship and to sell for a rookie 2nd or 3rd if you’re rebuilding.
*ADP from Dynasty Football Factory
**ADP from Dynasty League Football