Diontae Johnson: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Past Production

The Steelers drafted Diontae Johnson in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft with the 66th overall pick. At the time, they had JuJu Smith-Schuster as their clear top receiver, and Donte Moncrief and James Washington projected as their two other starters. Therefore, most dynasty owners expected Johnson to play a depth role in his rookie year and saw him as more of a long-term project.

However, the Steelers’ planned offense quickly fell apart at the start of 2019. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury that forced him out for the season after Week 2. Moncrief was utterly ineffective as a receiver, and tight end Vance McDonald also failed to step into a significant role. Therefore, Johnson quickly rose to the starting lineup and eventually to the Steelers’ top receiving target due to Smith-Schuster’s injury issues.

Even though the entire Steelers offense struggled under replacement quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, Johnson managed to shine. He led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns, and he finished just behind Washington in receiving yards. I’m always impressed by any first-year production from a rookie receiver, especially a third-round pick. While Johnson didn’t do much for fantasy owners, he undoubtedly exceeded expectations as a rookie.

2020 Outlook

Johnson represents an exciting proposition in 2020. As I discussed in my 2020 Steelers’ redraft breakdown, I believe that Smith-Schuster is the definite alpha receiver on the Steelers. Smith-Schuster will return to the slot, where he dominated in 2018 with 111 receptions, 1,426 yards, and seven touchdowns. Johnson will play the top outside receiver role, with Washington and second-rounder Chase Claypool competing for the third starting receiver. 

Roethlisberger seems to be fully healthy, and he’s supported multiple fantasy receivers whenever he’s been 100%. Therefore, I’ve slowly moved Johnson up my 2020 draft board, and he’s currently my WR38. Johnson’s price bakes in both the upside that he takes a massive step forward in Year 2 and the downside that he loses target share to Washington, Claypool, or free-agent signing Eric Ebron. I think that WR38 is the perfect spot to encapsulate Johnson’s wide range of 2020 outcomes.

Dynasty Analysis

In dynasty leagues, I can’t take anything away from what Johnson did as a rookie. However, let’s not forget that Johnson, Washington, and Smith-Schuster all had similar 2019 receiving lines, and all were born in 1996. But, only Smith-Schuster has had real prior fantasy success in the NFL, though. 

Therefore, Johnson comes with both significant dynasty upside and risk. Smith-Schuster is an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season, so it’s possible that Johnson is the Steelers’ top receiver for 2021 and beyond. On the other hand, Smith-Schuster could return to his 2018 form while Washington breaks out in Year 3, or Claypool has a strong rookie year. Remember that both Washington and Claypool have second-round draft capital, while Johnson was a third-round pick.

At Johnson’s current value, he likely represents a dynasty sell. I’m a firm believer in a bounce-back season for Smith-Schuster, and I expect the Steelers to reach a long-term agreement with him. I don’t see Johnson as having the same ceiling as some other players in his value range, such as Christian Kirk, Mecole Hardman, N’Keal Harry, or Tee Higgins. For those reasons, I’d float Johnson in trade talks if I had him on one of my dynasty teams.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.