TREVOR LAWRENCE | CLEMSON 6’5” 213 lbs. 10/6/1999 (Age 21.6)
Trevor Lawrence was drafted first by the Jacksonville Jaguars, becoming the first quarterback and first overall player taken in the 2021 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
Lawrence took over as the starting quarterback for Clemson as a true freshman. That season concluded with Lawrence leading the Clemson Tigers to a National Championship. In his career, Lawrence completed 758 of 1,138 pass attempts, a 66.6% rate. He threw for 10.098 yards, 90 TDs, and just 17 INTs which equates to a 164.3 passer rating. Lawrence also added 943 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the ground. Just to remind the reader, college rushing stats include sacks and kneel-downs.
Trevor Lawrence went 38-2 in his 40 college games played, losing only to Joe Burrow and Justin Fields. From the start of his college football career to the finish, Trevor Lawrence validated his five-star pedigree, and by all accounts proved to be a quality NFL quarterback.
ATHLETIC TESTING
At his isolated Pro Day, Trevor Lawrence measured in at 6’5” and 213 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 24.85. He did not participate in any athletic testing but showed dual-threat capabilities during his time at Clemson. In high school, Lawrence ran a 4.78-second 40-yard dash. The only red flag on Lawrence’s testing is his below-average BMI, but this is a metric that we know is outdated.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
Rapid Reaction to Draft Capital: Excellent
Rapid Reaction to Landing Spot: Above-average
Lawrence was selected with the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars. He will team up with college legend Urban Meyer in his stint as an NFL head coach. Lawrence will have above-average weapons at his disposal immediately starting with D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones at wide receiver. He will also have rookie sensation James Robinson, with journey-man Carlos Hyde spelling him, and keeping the defenses honest at running back.
In 2020 the Jaguars went 1-15, leading them to the first-overall pick in the draft. The Jaguars currently have 13/1 (+1,300) odds to win the AFC South in the 2021 season. This means that Lawrence will likely be expected to be in passing situations early and often in his NFL career. A red flag is that Lawrence is headed to a rookie head coach in Urban Meyer. This could easily turn sideways on Meyer and Lawrence could be in a situation where he has a new HC/OC each year of his early career. This situation does not have a high probability of happening but is worth noting.
FANTASY INSIGHTS
Lawrence will serve primarily as a pocket passer but can beat you with his legs. He did have a 67-yard TD run in the 2019 College Football Playoffs against Ohio State. He has competent receiving threats in Chark, Shenault, and Jones, but would still greatly benefit from the Jaguars adding another receiving option in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lawrence will hold the market value of a top-10 dynasty quarterback immediately but is more likely to produce QB2 numbers early in his NFL career.
Do not hesitate from drafting Lawrence as the 1.01 pick in Superflex leagues. Even if he doesn’t produce elite fantasy numbers early in his career, he has a very safe floor and will retain his market value through his rookie contract and beyond. Trevor Lawrence projects as a back-end QB1 for the next 15 years, which fuels his value. However, in the right system, Lawrence has all the physical and mental tools to challenge Patrick Mahomes for the Superflex Startup 1.01 throne.
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