Past Production
Here are Derek Carr’s full NFL stats.
| Year | Games | Completion % | Yards | TDs | INTs | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG | PPG Rank |
| 2014 | 16 | 58.1 | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | QB20 | 12.0 | 30th |
| 2015 | 16 | 61.1 | 3,987 | 32 | 13 | QB14 | 16.8 | 18th |
| 2016 | 15 | 63.8 | 3,937 | 28 | 6 | QB13 | 17.2 | 13th |
| 2017 | 15 | 62.7 | 3,496 | 22 | 13 | QB21 | 13.5 | 25th |
| 2018 | 16 | 68.9 | 4,049 | 19 | 10 | QB19 | 13.4 | 29th |
| 2019 | 16 | 70.4 | 4,054 | 21 | 8 | QB14 | 15.3 | 22nd |
| 2020 | 2 | 73.5 | 523 | 4 | 0 | N/A | 18.6 | 16th |
However, in 2015 and 2016, Carr played like a borderline QB1. He continued to struggle as a real-life quarterback, but he threw enough touchdowns to maintain fantasy relevance. Even in 2016, his completion percentage was nothing special, and he only averaged 7.0 yards/attempt.
Carr broke his fibula at the end of the 2016 season, which may have led to some struggles in 2017. He turned in a season similar to his rookie year, throwing more interceptions and fewer touchdowns. Carr struggled to get the ball to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, both of whom played better in 2016.
Then in 2018, an interesting phenomenon happened to Carr. He didn’t improve as a fantasy player, and the Raiders had a 4-12 record. But, Carr had by far the highest completion percentage of his career, and he also recorded a career-high in yards/attempt with 7.3. He also set his top mark in passing yards. Carr failed in fantasy football due to his extremely low 3.4% touchdown rate.
In 2019, Carr improved his real-life play even more. He threw for more yards, a better completion percentage, and a new career-high 7.9 yards/attempt. Carr once again had a low touchdown rate of only 4.1%, keeping him outside the QB1 range. The Raiders had a 7-9 record, but even though they played better as a team, many thought Carr was about to lose his starting job.
2020 Performance and Outlook
In the offseason, the Raiders signed Marcus Mariota to backup Carr, and some thought that Mariota would challenge for Carr’s starting role. Mariota began the season on injured reserve, but he never presented a serious camp challenge to Carr, anyway. In two games, Carr has averaged 18.6 fantasy points/game, and he’s led the Raiders to two straight wins. While I don’t believe that Carr is a QB1, he represents a safe and reliable QB2 play in superflex leagues. He’s also a bye-week fill-in for 1QB leagues.
Dynasty Analysis
Before the 2020 season, I had Carr ranked very low in my dynasty superflex rankings, as I thought 2020 would be his final season as a starting quarterback. I expected the Raiders to replace Carr in 2021, either with a free agent quarterback or in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Raiders can escape from Carr’s deal after 2020 with a minimal dead cap hit, so the stars aligned for them to make a move.
Now, Carr’s cap hits of $22.1 and $19.8 million in 2021 and 2022 look like a bargain. The Raiders aren’t going to be in a position to acquire a top quarterback in the 2021 class with the way they’re playing, and I no longer believe they will push Carr out for a free-agent signing. Therefore, Carr is now the QB22 in my superflex dynasty rankings at the top of a tier, including players like Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Gardner Minshew. Carr presents the most job security of those players, with similar fantasy upside. On a QB-needy, contending superflex team, I wouldn’t hesitate to send a 2021 first-round rookie pick for Carr.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
