On Thursday, the fantasy world learned that one of the 2019 rookie WR darlings, Deebo Samuel, had suffered a broken foot. In this article, I explain the details of his injury, likely recovery time, effects on the 49ers fantasy players, and transaction strategy regarding Deebo.
The Injury
Referred to as a Jones fracture, Deebo fractured part of his fifth metatarsal and will be requiring surgery. According to @FBInjuryDoc on Twitter, the recovery time for this injury is likely 8-12 weeks–with 10 weeks being the preferred timetable. This 10-week timetable theoretically puts Samuel on track to be ready for week 1, assuming no setbacks. Trent Taylor, Deebo’s teammate, endured the same injury last year. While Taylor was expected to be back in under 8 weeks until he required a second surgery. Unfortunately, this second surgery caused an infection causing Taylor to miss the entire 2019 season. Let us hope there are no complications and Samuel can return to the field ASAP.
The Effect
After such a strong rookie season, which saw Deebo finish as THE WR6 (.5 PPR) over the final 8 weeks, catching 35 balls for 575 yards and two touchdowns while adding 122 yards on the ground two more touchdowns. Expectations for a true Sophomore breakout were running wild. The 49ers also used 1st round draft capital to bring in Arizona State WR Brandon Aiyuk to line up across from Deebo.
Things were really looking up for the San Francisco receiving corps going into 2020. I believe the Samuel injury, along with other factors, will have a profound impact on the 49ers offense this year. First, let us not forget, this is a running team. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best at scheming the run game in today’s game, making special teamers like Raheem Mostert playoff heroes. When they do decide to throw, the 49ers passing game funnels through All-Pro TE George Kittle. This was not going to change in 2020, no matter how much improvement we saw with Deebo.
Put aside the basic foundation of the 49ers offense. High scoring teams that make the Super Bowl have not fared well of late. In 2016 the Falcons made the Super Bowl with the #1 ranked offense. Then, in 2017, they ended the season ranked #15. In 2017 the Eagles reached the Super Bowl with the 3rd ranked offense. They followed that by finishing #18 in 2018. The Sean McVay led Rams got to the Super Bowl on the back of their #2 ranked offense. Last year that offense finished as #11. The 49ers, while also having a top defense, reached the Super Bowl with the #2 ranked offense. I believe the Super Bowl hangover is a real thing. I thought it was coming for the 49ers offense before the Samuel injury.
With the state of the world right now, the 2020 offseason and training camps will be an unprecedented experience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rookie WRs across the league struggle to pick up NFL offenses. I fear that trying to pick the 2020 San Francisco WR that will produce will be as challenging as picking the 2019 San Francisco RB each given week. The only benefactors I would trust in this offense are Kittle and the running backs (which might yet again be a headache). I was wary of this offense before, now with the Samuel injury, I’m scared.
Trades
At the time of writing this, I wouldn’t be trying to trade for Deebo. In fact, I don’t think much of trading for any of the 49er WRs now as you will be paying a serious premium for unlikely returns from unproven players. I feel like the smart thing to do is wait and see how Samuel recovers. If he suffers a setback or is placed on the PUP, his value will only go down.
If he is to start the season on the PUP list, I feel like that’s when you make a move. His value will take a massive hit, making it an enticing time to buy. Also, assuming no setbacks, if Deebo is placed on the PUP he will have an extra 6 weeks of recovery time on top of the 11 weeks from time of injury to when he’s eligible to play again. This will ensure Samuel is 100% healthy and ready to return.
Regarding Brandon Aiyuk, I feel like now is most certainly not the time to try and acquire him. As mentioned before, with the uncertainty around how training camps will be conducted I expect rookies WRs to struggle to adjust to the NFL game. If Deebo is to miss time, Aiyuk essentially becomes the team’s WR1 and will likely draw top corners until Samuel’s return. I just can’t advise currently paying a premium for anyone in the 49ers passing attack not named Kittle. The only move I would advise is trying to sell any of the unproven WRs (Bourne, Hurd, Pettis, Taylor) at a premium.
Thanks for reading! What do you think about the Deebo Samuel injury? Let me know on Twitter @Dushanes_
