Curtis Samuel: 2020 Dynasty Profile

PAST PRODUCTION

Curtis Samuel is now entering this 4th year in the NFL after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Statistically, he has improved each season:

Stats via https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

While in the last year of his rookie contract with the Panthers, could he take another step forward? A lot of production and fantasy points were left on the table in 2019 and with some new pieces added to the puzzle in Carolina, dynasty owners wonder if his potential has been crushed or unlocked.

2020 OUTLOOK

There are both new coaches and players now in the fold for the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers now have a new head coach in Matt Rhule and a new offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. With Joe Brady calling plays, the Panthers could be a top-10 passing offense in 2020. Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator for the National Champion LSU Tigers in 2019. In addition to being National Champions, the offense was record-breaking. In Brady’s first and only year on staff, the Tigers had the most productive offensive season in LSU history, setting highs in total points (621), points per game (47.8), total offense (7,206) and passing yards (5,029). The Panthers offense should be exciting to watch in 2020 with Joe Brady calling plays. Three wide-receiver sets are a staple in Brady’s offense:

The question that remains is, where will Curtis Samuel fit into this offense?

As mentioned earlier, there is also a new player in Carolina. Robby Anderson, a speedy WR previously of the New York Jets, has been a productive player, with his best season coming in 2017 when he had 63 receptions for 941 yards and seven touchdowns. With the arrival of Anderson in Carolina, it is not clear who will be the #2 WR behind D.J. Moore. When trying to translate the personnel Brady had at LSU, to the personnel currently in Carolina, it is easy to see that D.J. Moore will step into the “alpha” role of Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian McCaffrey stepping into the all-purpose back role of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

This leaves the roles of Justin Jefferson and Terrance Marshall Jr. up for grabs between Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson. Although Justin Jefferson was the slot at LSU, his role is the more desirable one. Justin Jefferson took 78% of snaps from the slot in 2019 and produced a gaudy stat line of 111 receptions for 1540 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Now, I do not expect the slot receiver for the Panthers in 2020 to produce on that level, but it is clear the slot receiver in Joe Brady’s offense can be very productive.

When assessing who will fit better in the slot in 2020 between Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson, I believe Samuel to be the better fit. From a snap share perspective Samuel has had a higher rate of snaps from the slot:

Looking through a style of play lens, I also believe Samuel’s skill-set makes him a better fit. With his background playing some RB while at Ohio State, his ability to create after the catch and turn a short pass into a long gain is evident. Throughout Anderson’s career, he has been most effective as a deep threat on the outside.

If Samuel is to become the primary slot receiver for the Panthers, I believe a safe projection is 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, another step forward production-wise for the 24-year-old.

DYNASTY ANALYSIS

As I previously alluded, there was a lot of production and fantasy points left on the field for Samuel in 2019, and the air yards (via www.airyards.com) data back it up. Curtis Samuel was 9th in air yards, but 50th in receiving yards. I do not blame the glaring difference on Samuel but his QB in 2019 Kyle Allen. Curtis Samuel had a drop rate of only 5.6% while having a target quality rating of #101 in the league (via www.playerprofiler.com ). It is pretty easy to project a better target quality for Samuel in 2020 with Teddy Bridgewater stepping in as the QB. Due to another likely statistical increase for Samuel, I see his value rising during, and after the 2020 season.

There is a cloud of uncertainty when looking past the 2020 season when Samuel’s contract runs out with the Panthers. I find it unlikely he will return in 2021 considering the signing of Robby Anderson for 2 years, $20 million. This uncertainty is what is driving his dynasty value at the moment. Therefore, I would only feel comfortable trading a 3rd round value for Samuel.

His FFPC ADP is currently 167, and that is a fair value for him considering the likelihood he could take over the slot role in Joe Brady’s offense, Samuel could be a strong flex option for you in 2020. His blazing speed could make him a matchup nightmare over the middle. Curtis Samuel (only 24) is a “wait and see” player for the moment, but I believe he is worth the price of admission.

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