At Dynasty Football Factory, we have a motto: “Building Dynasty Champions Since 2015”. So now you have gotten your team into a position to make a run at a title. What next? Your league-mates are likely mortgaging their future, acquiring aging veterans for a run at a title this year. Is that the best strategy?
We can’t all have a bounty of draft picks available for trade. So, how do we get a Louis Vuitton impact on a Dollar Store budget? This mini-series is intended to highlight players with favorable matchups for your Fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15, 16, and 17 that you can afford. This is an unspoken edge you can get on your league-mates as, more often than not, contenders will just be looking to acquire old players with a lofty fantasy point per game. Hopefully, you are not in a Dynasty league with a trade deadline. If you are, you should get that fixed with your commissioner for future years.
I subscribe more to the philosophy of giving yourself more kicks at the league championship can. In that sense, I am less likely than others to mortgage my future for one run at a title. Per studies, the best Fantasy teams still only have about a 40% chance to win a title if they make the playoffs, and that assumes they get a bye. Without a bye, even the best teams still only have about a 25% chance of winning.
I will be using Keep Trade Cut for the value of these players. Individual player metrics will be obtained from Player Profiler, while Team Fantasy Points Against Statistics will be taken from Yahoo. To establish parameters, these will all be players you can get for less than a first-round pick.
Each article will highlight one of the standard Fantasy positions: quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and tight end. We will begin with running back.
You can find the running back article here.
You can find the wide receiver article here.
Quarterback
Joshua Dobbs
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 17.2 (15)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 17.5 (11)
Passing Yards: 2401 (18)
Yards per Attempt: 6.1 (31)
QBR: 57.9 (14)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: QB 26
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2799
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Late 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Cincinnati (12)
Week 16: Detroit (9)
Week 17: Green Bay (26)
Summary:
Dobbs is coming off his worst game of the season. There is a very real possibility the Vikings start a QB other than Dobbs in the Fantasy playoffs. So, hedge this bet by picking up Nick Mullens. However, what we do know is Kevin O’Connell is going to pass no matter who his QB is. Despite losing Cousins, the Vikings remain fourth in the NFL in passing yards. What complicates this further is there are three quarterbacks in the mix. If I had to rank them right now, it would be 1. Josh Dobbs, 2. Nick Mullens, 3. Jaren Hall. Dobbs has the biggest fantasy upside and is a potential league winner due to his rushing acumen. Dobbs has averaged 19.12 fantasy points per game in his four games with Minnesota. This has been without the NFL’s best wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, who returns after this week.
Matthew Stafford
Current Fantasy Points Per Game Ranking: 15.4 (19)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 16.3 (14)
Passing Yards: 2489 (17)
Yards per Attempt: 7.3 (11)
QBR: 54.6 (16)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: QB 27
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2649
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Late 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Washington (1)
Week 16: New Orleans (20)
Week 17: New York Giants (18)
Summary:
The first week of the playoffs always takes priority. If you don’t get past round one, the other rounds don’t matter. Once you get into the championship game, variance has a more significant impact on whether you win a title. Stafford seems to be past his finger injury, completing 76% of his passes while throwing for 229 yards and four touchdowns in Week 12 vs. Arizona. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have cooled off from their torrid starts. They need to get back on track for Stafford to explode down the stretch.
Derek Carr
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 12.6 (24)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.5 (21)
Passing Yards: 2535 (16)
Yards per Attempt: 6.8 (23)
QBR: 49.9 (20)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: QB 29
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2554
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Late 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: New York Giants (18)
Week 16: Los Angeles Rams (4)
Week 17: Tampa Bay (5)
Summary:
It doesn’t get much less exciting than having a player like Derek Carr at quarterback for your championship game. However, the New Orleans Saints play Tampa Bay in Week 17, who have given up the fifth most points to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints’ weapons are banged up, with Thomas, Shaheed, and Olave battling injuries. The next few weeks could be rough sledding for Carr. But this is about winning titles; hopefully, by that time, the Saints will be at full strength.
Geno Smith
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Ranking): 15.1 (21)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.4 (22)
Passing Yards: 2915 (11)
Yards per Attempt: 7.3 (12)
QBR: 54.5 (17)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: QB 23
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3015
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Philadelphia (2nd)
Week 16: Tennessee (18th)
Week 17: Pittsburgh (26th)
Summary:
From Weeks 8-14, Geno Smith has and will face a terrifying gauntlet of excellent pass defenses. Cleveland (28th), Baltimore (31st), San Francisco (31st), Dallas (20th), San Francisco (31st). But, for those who weather this storm, there is a rainbow on the other side. In Week 15, Smith faces Philadelphia, who has given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This is followed by the Titans (18th) and Pittsburgh (26th). Jaxon Smith-Njigba is also maturing into an excellent third weapon alongside Metcalf and Lockett. It could be a nice end-of-season run for Geno Smith.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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