At Dynasty Football Factory, we have a motto: “Building Dynasty Champions Since 2015.” So now you have gotten your team into a position to make a run at a title. What’s next? Your league-mates are likely mortgaging their future, acquiring aging veterans for a run at a title this year. Is that the best strategy?
We can’t all have a bounty of draft picks available for trade. So, how do we get a Louis Vuitton impact on a Dollar Store budget? This mini-series is intended to highlight players with favorable matchups for your Fantasy playoffs in Week 15, 16, and 17 that you can afford. This is an unspoken edge you can get on your league-mates as, more often than not, contenders will just be looking to acquire old players with a lofty fantasy point per game. Hopefully, you are not in a Dynasty league with a trade deadline. If you are, you should get that fixed with your commissioner for future years.
I subscribe to the philosophy of giving yourself more kicks at the league championship can. In that sense, I am less likely than others to mortgage my future for one run at a title. Per studies, the best Fantasy teams still only have about a 40% chance to win a title if they make the playoffs, and that assumes they get a bye. Without a bye, even the best teams still only have about a 25% chance of winning.
I will be using Keep Trade Cut for the value of these players. Individual player metrics will be obtained from Player Profiler, while Team Fantasy Points Against Statistics will be taken from Yahoo. To establish parameters, these will all be players you can get for less than a first-round pick.
Each article will highlight one of the standard Fantasy positions: quarterback, wide receiver, running back, and tight end. We will begin with running back.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco
Age: 23
Current Fantasy Points Per Game Ranking: RB 21
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game: RB 20
Yards Created Per Touch: RB 7
Target Share: RB 28
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: RB 19
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3940
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Early 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: New England (15)
Week 16: Las Vegas (8)
Week 17: Cincinnati (18)
Summary:
This upcoming running back class is bereft of talent. By investing in Pacheco, you are not just getting a rental for this year; you are also getting a likely starting running back for next year. The Chiefs need to find salary savings to help offset players like Patrick Mahomes. Pacheco currently makes $750,000, ranked 67th among running backs and this only increases to $870,000 next year.
Kyren Williams
Age: 23.2
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 18.5 (RB 4)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 17.3 RB (RB 6)
Yards Created Per Touch (Rank): 3.75 (RB 13)
Target Share (Rank): 11.2% (RB 19)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: RB 21
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3790
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Early 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Washington (16)
Week 16: New Orleans (29)
Week 17: New York Giants (9)
Summary:
Williams has been a Fantasy revelation this year. He is currently the RB 4 overall in Fantasy Points Per Game. Much like Pacheco, the Rams have Kyren Williams on a very cheap contract due to him being a 5th-round pick.
The offense has been much better with him in the lineup this year. The Rams have scored 20 points or less in four straight games after scoring 20 or more in four of their first six games. Williams excels most in pass blocking, which allows Stafford the time to hit his lethal weapons, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Jaylen Warren
Age: 25
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 12.5 (RB 25)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 10.7 RB (Rb 34)
Yards Created Per Touch (Rank): 5.46 (RB 3)
Target Share (Rank): 14.1% (RB 7)
Evaded Tackles: 45 (RB 1)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: RB 20
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 3944
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Mid 2nd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Indianapolis (4)
Week 16: Cincinatti (16)
Week 17: Seattle (5)
Summary:
In my August Bold Prediction Column, I made the extremely bold call that Jaylen Warren (Average draft position RB 53) would outscore Najee Harris (Average draft position RB 11) in fantasy based on his efficiency in limited usage last year. Season to date, Warren is handily outsourcing Harris in fantasy, averaging 12.5 FPPG to Harris at 9.9 FPPG.
That efficiency has continued this year, with Jaylen Warren being #1 in the NFL in evaded tackles and #3 in yards created per touch. He is now starting over Harris, and I am excited to see him featured in the new offense following Matt Canada’s departure.
Ty Chandler
Age: 25
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 3.6 (RB 65)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 3.3 RB (RB 72)
Yards Created Per Touch (Rank): 3.33
Target Share (Rank): 2.5%
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: RB 49
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 2034
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Mid 3rd
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: Cincinnati (16)
Week 16: Detroit (28)
Week 17: Green Bay (12)
Summary:
Mattison has never been a great running back so much as he has been a product of the volume and situation. Ty Chandler has shown some juice recently, cutting into that volume. Chandler may be the play, or at least a handcuff is a very cheap option. Chandler saw 14 touches in Week 11 and had 15 fantasy points.
Jerick McKinnon
Age: 31
Current Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 5.6 (RB 56)
Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (Rank): 5.6 RB (RB 58)
Yards Created Per Touch (Rank): 6.19
Target Share (Rank): 7.1% (RB 35)
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Rank: RB 73
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Value: 1051
Keep Trade Cut Dynasty Pick Value: Mid 4th
Playoff schedule: (Yahoo Fantasy Points Against Rank by Position)
Week 15: New England (15)
Week 16: Las Vegas (7)
Week 17: Cincinnati (16)
Summary:
The Chiefs are always interesting with their running back usage. They are famous for keeping certain players in bubble wrap during the early part of the year and then unleashing them for the late-season push toward the playoffs. McKinnon has been irrelevant most of the year, but he has been a league-winner type in the past and has a great schedule down the stretch. The best part is he is free as a speculative add.
Finally, I would be remiss not to at least mention Jeff Wilson. He is like the Robert Horry of Fantasy football. He always seems to find himself in situations where he becomes a league winner. Like McKinnon, he is free, and Achane is hobbled. Plus, Mostert has a long history of injuries.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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