This time last year, in the spirit of a new offseason beginning, I took a look back at the 2023 rookie startup ADP from May. Back then, I described that year’s rookie class as “nothing short of outstanding,” which is hilarious, given how much that class pales in comparison to the 2024 rookie class.
This installment of a now annual series to celebrate the end of the NFL season features a re-draft of the instantly classic 2024 rookie class. For each player, we’ll do a quick 2024 season retrospective and try to take away a key lesson. Let’s get into it!
May 2024 Rookie First Round ADP:
1.01 Caleb Williams – QB, Bears
1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR, Cardinals
1.03 Jayden Daniels – QB, Commanders
1.04 Malik Nabers – WR, Giant
1.05 Drake Maye – QB, Patriots
1.06 Brock Bowers – TE, Raiders
1.07 Rome Odunze – WR, Bears
1.08 J.J. McCarthy – QB, Vikings
1.09 Xavier Worthy – WR, Chiefs
1.10 Brian Thomas Jr. – WR, Jaguars
1.11 Jonathon Brooks – RB, Panthers
1.12 Ladd McConkey – WR, Chargers
The @BWinkNFL 1st Round Re-Draft
1.01: Jayden Daniels – QB, Commanders
May ADP: 1.03
If I were to describe Jayden Daniels’ game in a nutshell, I’d ask you to think back to when you were a kid playing Madden. In short-yardage situations, on crucial downs, if you had a quarterback with any kind of legs, every kid worth his salt knew the scramble was live, and likely your best option at making a play outside of your first read being open.
While this is easy with a controller, Jayden has mastered it at the highest level, to a degree similar to Lamar and Mahomes. These masters of pocket maneuvering bring a ridiculously high success rate to their offenses, and when things are clicking, they have immensely massive fantasy ceilings.
This combination of both insulation, based on Jayden’s status as one of the future faces of the league, and production, based on his 2nd-to-almost-none dual-threat capabilities, makes Jayden Daniels arguably the most valuable asset money can buy in Superflex.
The Lesson: We are officially past the era of writing off quarterback prospects for being old.
1.02: Brock Bowers – TE, Raiders
May ADP: 1.06
While Jayden is amazing, you could argue the only true generational talent in this draft is Brock Bowers. His combination of athleticism and intangibles are unmatched, able to use his incredible array of physical tools to get open almost at will. Bowers dominates DBs with his size and is far too quick for most linebackers, making him one of the biggest matchup nightmares in the sport even at just 21 years old.
There is no price too high to pay for Bowers, especially in any type of tight end premium format. He more than likely will provide the most significant positional advantage of any player in all of fantasy football over the course of his career.
The Lesson: If someone has reasonable potential to be the #1 overall at their position as a rookie, they are almost surely worth no less than the 1st or 2nd pick in their rookie draft.
1.03: Malik Nabers – WR, Giants
May ADP: 1.04
There are not many receivers in the league with the “Dynasty WR1” title within their realistic range of outcomes, but there happen to be not one, but two LSU receivers from this class who fit that description.
Nabers appears the more explosive of the two, but actually is one of the league’s most dominant target hogs. Operating from both outside and in the slot with similar effectiveness and being able to create separation at all three levels, Nabers dominates with his explosiveness before and after the catch. He has a Ja’Marr-esque ability to burn angles on quick passes, making him a threat to score in a flash from any field positioning.
Nabers will continue to dominate, and his feel for the game will only continue to improve as he gains experience. With New York likely to bring in a franchise quarterback in the coming months, there’s truly no telling just how good Nabers could be.
The Lesson: The best college WR does not always mean the best WR prospect
1.04: Brian Thomas Jr. – WR, Jaguars
May ADP: 1.10
Before the draft, I was on record saying that if Brian Thomas Jr. were to come out and not produce right away, I would be preaching extreme patience. I saw a ton of raw tools with upside, not just athletically but from a technical standpoint as well. Then he walked into what was expected to be a pretty solid receiving corps, and I figured there may be some time before BTJ turned into any kind of fantasy demon.
In that aspect, I was very wrong. He didn’t need time at all and was said fantasy demon pretty much from the jump, beginning this year by dominating on vertical shots deep downfield, using his physicality and god-given athleticism to win over the top and win at the catch point. Thomas then spent the back half of the season turning in teach tape, 3-level performances, and showing off his route-running chops in a way no one expected this early on. Even with Mac Jones struggling behind a porous offensive line, BTJ finished with one of the best rookie WR seasons in recent memory.
The Lesson: Projects are projects, and stats usually don’t lie, but if you think someone has got it like that, it can be incredibly profitable to trust your eyes.
1.05: Drake Maye – QB, Patriots
May ADP: 1.05
I was *this* close to having Maye ranked above Caleb pre-season in the DFF rookie guide, which would have been a crazy call, but alas, I will pay my penance here through this post-season article. While it can still be argued that Caleb has a brighter future, which might even be the more popular take at this point, I think Maye’s higher volume of rushing involvement makes him a more intriguing dynasty asset at this point in their careers.
Maye’s rookie year went about as well as you could hope- he sat and missed most of their toughest defensive matchups, and then came back and exceeded all expectations once it was proven how poor the surrounding cast was. Maye put all the tools on display that people fell in love with pre-draft: the rocket arm, pinpoint downfield accuracy on the go or settled in the pocket, and both the athleticism and creativity to make plays off schedule and keep drives alive. Maye is on a fast track to becoming a top-10 quarterback in the league, and he’s going to score a ton of fantasy points doing it.
The Lesson: Context is indeed king when it comes to evaluating rookie QB prospects.
1.06: Caleb Williams – QB, Bears
May ADP: 1.01
Caleb’s most promising development this year is the arrival of Ben Johnson as his head coach and, more importantly, offensive play-caller. In my opinion, this was the only stroke of luck Caleb needed to counter the curse and save his career in Chicago.
Ben & Caleb will be able to craft this offense tailor-made to every single one of their dynamic weapons already in place. Not only that, but you can expect that this new regime will bring about better drafting and player development than ever seen in Chicago. These two have the opportunity to become innovators of modern football, and that’s not a responsibility I think either take lightly. I’m excited to see what they’re able to concoct next year, and it should propel Caleb to at least a low-end QB1 finish.
The Lesson: Generational expectations often have disappointing outcomes, but where disappointment exists, there can still be redemption.
1.07: Ladd McConkey – WR, Chargers
May ADP: 1.12
While BTJ and Nabers are the clear 1 and 2 of this class in our hindsight analysis, Ladd’s rookie year is not to be overshadowed. Ladd’s rookie FPPG of a little over 15 per game puts him in an elite bucket of young WR producers with a bust rate of nearly zero. Though odds are, you don’t need me to convince you that Ladd has an extremely safe floor as a fantasy producer. He is #goodatfootball.
What I do need to convince you of surrounds the uncertainty many people seem to have regarding Ladd’s ability to continue demanding a dominant target share as the Chargers continue to pour resources into improving their receiving corps. There is a common misconception that the infusion of a Tee Higgins-level addition to this offense (which is probably the most extreme case scenario) would seriously cap Ladd’s upside. I’m here to let you know that those comparisons are massively overblown; not only is Justin Herbert plenty good enough to support a productive 1A and 1B kind of duo, but I would argue that the addition of Tee Higgins could potentially Ja’Marr-ify McConkey. Allow me to explain.
The threat of Tee Higgins cannot be understated. As arguably the most physically dominant X receiver in the league, Tee is one of few players who can singlehandedly dictate defensive coverages when he’s on the field. This means that while Tee is dealing either with an opposing #1 corner or the #2 corner plus a double team, Ladd will likely find himself in tons of exploitable one-on-one matchups. Given that Ladd is currently on a record-setting pace as a pure man coverage beater, I would argue that adding such a menacing threat across the formation (or, God help us, lined up next to each other) could make Ladd into a game-breaking fantasy asset.
The Lesson: Draft good football players and figure the rest out later.
1.08: Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR, Cardinals
May ADP: 1.02
I wish I had more to say about Marv, but his rookie season left much to be desired. Heralded as a generational prospect similar to the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Marv’s statistical output was disappointing, and the flashes on film were hardly what we expected them to be.
However, a lot of that has to do with two things: one being the way Marv was being deployed, and two being Kyler Murray‘s well-documented struggles as a processor this season.
Marv has unfortunately become the leagues foremost “sacrificial X“. A large chunk of his route tree ended up being vertical field-stretching plays that open up underneath space for guys like Trey McBride to have record-setting seasons, but aren’t conducive to many Marv fantasy points himself.
While this is unfortunate itself, what makes things even worse is there’s no telling if, when, or how much this role will change and evolve over time. It appears that for at least the next year, Marv will remain in this same exact system, and I’d project him to be likely to struggle to produce the gaudy numbers we once thought were an imminent part of his future. Marv is still a great player but one of the most capped producers in all of fantasy right now, and it’s not really his fault.
The Lesson: True talent overcomes bad situations, but bad situations are plenty capable of nipping rising talents in the bud.
1.09: Bucky Irving – RB, Buccaneers
May ADP: 3.10
One of the biggest wins of the 2024 season was the breakout of Bucky Irving, who burst onto the scene early in the year and never looked back. Bucky took over the RB1 role in the Bucs’ offense about as quickly as you could ever ask a day 3 rookie to do so and looked dominant while doing it. His vision, instincts, and footwork are second to none in the entire league, and he’s already one of the best ball carriers in football.
Bucky is a dynamic receiving threat as well, and for a back of his stature is elite around the low red. He’ll be just 23 going into next season and projects to retain a full workload of at bare minimum 15-18 touches per game. Bucky will provide a very safe low-end RB1 floor for the immediate future and has the upside to vault himself into the upper echelon of dynasty running backs if he takes another step as a sophomore.
The Lesson: When opportunity knocks, someone answers
1.10: J.J. McCarthy – QB, Vikings
May ADP: 1.08
J.J. was a highly debated prospect last rookie cycle, potentially talked about as a top 6 pick to the Giants, but fortunately for Minnesota, he lasted until the 10th pick for which they traded up to spend on him. This top-10 draft capital gives J.J. a ton of value insulation in dynasty, proven by his ability to suffer a meniscus injury and still remain in the QB15-20 range all season long. Now, with the epic meltdown of Sam Darnold in back-to-back primetime showings, it appears that J.J.’s time is upon us.
J.J. is a dynamic, toolsy passer who provides another element in the run game as well, both working zone read and working off-schedule. J.J. is a creative, athletic playmaker and provides the Vikings with a completely different ceiling than Darnold does. I’m thrilled about the fit not only with such a dominant supporting cast boasting the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson but also having the next QB whisperer under contract in Kevin O’Connell. I have almost 100% faith that KOC will be able to unlock the true potential that lies in J.J.’s toolsiness, and I can’t wait to see what the Vikings offense puts together next year.
The Lesson: Consider your dynasty investments in organizations, regimes, and play-callers just as much as you consider the players themselves.
1.11: Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Falcons
May ADP: 2.04
The biggest shocker of last April was the Falcons’ selection of Michael Penix at 8. Despite zero buzz hyping this up as a possibility, the Falcons felt ready to shock the world and go get their guy. The good news is, I think they got him, despite most people crowning this the “worst pick of the first round” almost immediately.
Penix’s sample size is quite small, but it was more than enough to catapult him from the 6th round up to the late 4/early 5 range in startup value. From a value perspective alone, we can project Penix to jump up potentially another whole round if he can establish himself just as a league-average starter (think Purdy and Mayfield, who are maybe slightly above-average passers and below-average rushers).
While he lacks the high-end ceiling of the other rookie QBs I’ve re-drafted before him, becoming this class’s best pure passer is well within his range of outcomes and even gives him a Jordan Love/Justin Herbert-esque ceiling in dynasty. I would love to see Penix get it clicking in Atlanta with such a dynamic array of weapons at his disposal and I think this could be one of the most fun offenses of all time if things work out.
The Lesson: The wrong pick isn’t always the wrong pick.
1.12: Bo Nix – QB, Broncos
May ADP: 2.02
In what many people described as the “second worst pick in the first round” the Broncos gave the league another shocker in selecting Bo Nix at 12. Nix had a 2nd round grade from myself and most league circles had him around there as well, although there was certainly plenty of buzz about Sean Payton‘s enamoration with Nix’s talent and cerebral abilities.
While this is the pick that essentially gave the Raiders Brock Bowers, I will say it’s unfortunate that I now must admit another one of my division rivals has acquired a franchise quarterback before the Raiders did. Nix certainly rose up to the challenge this season and has already cemented himself as an above-average starter. He elevated a horrid Broncos offense and took them on an impressive stretch run to set up a date with one of the best teams in football, and regardless of how that game went this season, it was a massive success for Bo and the Broncos. His rushing upside and consistent in-structure passing give him both a safe floor and a high ceiling from a fantasy point-scoring perspective, and he’ll likely hover around the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range for the entirety of his career.
The Lesson: Regardless of what you thought about them before the draft, a top QB drafted top 15 is a QB drafted top 15, and you must treat them as such.
Thank you so much if you made it to the end! This article is always a blast for me to put together, and I hope it provides you with some valuable retrospective insights so we can improve our rookie drafting in the future. Check out my Twitter @BWinkNFL and my Tik Tok at the same handle to get more regular updates on my thoughts and opinions! #DFFArmy
