In the spirit of a new offseason beginning, I wanted to look back at the 2023 rookie startup ADP from May. This year’s rookie class has been nothing short of outstanding and has arguably reached and even gone beyond the lofty expectations set for them years ago.
This series (which may well be a one-off) will be two-fold: firstly, I’ll re-draft each round of rookie drafts one by one. Secondly, I’ll analyze how those players’ seasons have unfolded, provide some insight into why they may have hit or missed, and give a long-term projection for each.
May 2023 Rookie First Round ADP (per Bulletproof):
1.01: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
1.02: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
1.03: Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
1.04: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
1.05: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
1.06: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
1.07: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
1.08: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
1.09: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
1.10: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
1.11: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
1.12: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The BWinkNFL First-Round Redraft + Analysis
1.01: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
May ADP: 1.04
The NFL has a new golden child, and his name is C.J. Stroud. He’s displayed an unreal level of quarterback play from a rookie to a degree we didn’t think possible before this season. Stroud’s timing, anticipation, processing, and footwork have been outright insane. He’s looked absolutely surgical in most games, and that, combined with his aggression pushing the ball downfield, launched him into the MVP conversation as a rookie and similarly into the elite tier of dynasty QB1s. Not only that, but he’s done so with a sub-optimal supporting cast. One can only imagine what Stroud will look like in a couple of seasons as Houston continues to build a Super Bowl contender around him.
1.02: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
May ADP: 1.02
My biggest fantasy heartbreak of the season by a wide margin was Anthony Richardson’s season-ending shoulder surgery after week 4. Richardson had displayed every bit of upside I had seen on his college tape, with the most eye-popping zip we’ve seen all season. His rushing upside was everything we had hoped for, and he appeared well on his way to a top 6-8 finish at his position. I’m glad he’s exercising caution with this type of injury, and I hope to see him return to form in 2024.
Richardson remains in the back half of the tier of elite QBs in dynasty but has just as much youth and upside to launch himself to the top next season. Indianapolis has overperformed despite much worse QB play than Richardson’s (albeit small) sample, and they could be a serious playoff contender as soon as next season if Richardson can not only come back healthy but show some development with another offseason under his belt.
1.03: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
May ADP: 1.01
Bijan’s rookie season has been disappointing, depending on who you ask. However, it’s quite clear that he has not been the issue. His efficiency metrics have been solid, and his tape is still just as impressive as ever. The usage in Atlanta’s system simply wasn’t there, and the potency of their offense was far from what we expected. Thus, a lack of touchdown opportunities and total touches overall have capped Bijan’s fantasy production- but the spike weeks have still been there, and I’m confident that sooner rather than later, those spike weeks will materialize into the elite, consistent fantasy production we all know Bijan is capable of. With the departure of Arthur Smith, Bijan remains in the conversation as a late-1st round startup pick and an ideal asset for any team build. And make no mistake, despite falling two slots in this rookie redraft, he’s still the dynasty RB1.
1.04: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
May ADP: 1.05
Gibbs may well be the RB1 from this class, once again, depending on who you ask. There’s a real argument for him as the dynasty RB1 overall, and he’s personally my most-owned RB in fantasy. Gibbs’ blazing speed has proven to be a game-breaking tool in the Lions offense, and since his breakout in Week 7, he’s been on an absolute tear, with 4-straight top 3 RB finishes. Gibbs’ elite PPR ceiling due to his receiving ability makes him a locked-and-loaded elite RB1 in dynasty, and he’s a rare bright spot in an otherwise barren RB landscape.
1.05: Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
May ADP: 2.07
The dynasty tight end landscape received a much-needed infusion of youth and talent from this rookie class, none better than the Lions’ standout 2nd-round pick. LaPorta finished as the TE4 overall in points per game in 0.5 tight end premium scoring and was the TE1 overall in non-TEP 0.5 PPR scoring. In short, this was the greatest rookie TE fantasy season of all time, and the film backs up the numbers. LaPorta dominated all levels of the field thanks to his natural fluidity as a receiver and YAC prowess. He thrived in the red zone as well, utilizing his size and excellent feel for holes in zone coverage. It’s been clear since his 22 targets across his first three games that getting the ball in LaPorta’s hands was a top priority for Goff and the Lions this season, and he’ll continue to be a focal point of their offense. LaPorta is far and away my dynasty TE1, as he built this whole resume at the young age of 22. I personally won’t be hesitating to pull the trigger on LaPorta at the back end of the 2nd in startups this offseason.
1.06: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
May ADP: 4.12
It’s a complete shock to me that Puka isn’t higher in this redraft, but that’s more a testament to the strength of the rookie class than any indictment on my new favorite receiver in the NFL. Puka’s record-breaking season needs almost no introduction and was good for a WR4 finish overall in fantasy. He’s proven to be an elite target earner due to his incredibly reliable hands and crisp routes and has emerged as the Rams’ top target even after the return of Cooper Kupp. Accomplishing all this at just 22 years old, if Puka isn’t near your top 5 dynasty WRs, you’re probably doing this wrong. His combination of strength and polish makes him an uber-reliable target with explosive YAC potential every time he touches the ball. There’s no limit to how high you can be on Puka, and he’ll be an easy pick in the front end of the 3rd round of startups this offseason.
1.07: Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
May ADP: 3.09
One of the quickest-forgotten storylines of the season was Tank Dell’s brief challenge for the #1 spot in this rookie receiver class. If you’re one of those who’s forgotten, Dell overtook Puka for that slot for about four weeks after his return from a concussion. Dell posted the following statlines:
11 targets, 6 catches, 114 yards, 2 TD (29.60 PPR pts)
14 targets, 6 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD (18.90 PPR pts)
10 targets, 8 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD (28.90 PPR pts)
8 targets, 5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD (17.20 PPR pts)
Paired with future league MVP C.J. Stroud, Dell’s production ceiling is immense. His injury is currently providing managers with a massive discount, and the play of Nico Collins may be scaring people away from Dell, who profiles as a less dominant receiver prototype. But make no mistake, when both receivers were on the field, it was a 1A 1B situation fairly clearly, and Stroud is more than capable of supporting both of these studs. Once again, I urge you to buy Dell at his current mid-WR2 price (WR20 on fantasycalc) and enjoy his mid-WR1 ceiling for the next 8-10 years.
1.08: De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
May ADP: 2.01
One of my least favorite parts about my personal dynasty portfolio is the lack of De’Von Achane exposure. Achane has the explosiveness and game-breaking athleticism potent enough to keep him in the conversation as a weekly RB1 overall finisher, and that upside cannot be understated. He finished as the RB3 in fantasy points per game in a limited role alongside an overperforming veteran in Raheem Mostert. I have to imagine he’ll be truly unleashed by Mike McDaniel next season in a more consistent workload, and I’m both thrilled and terrified to see what kind of upside might exist there.
1.09: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
May ADP: 1.10
An up-and-down rookie campaign for the Bills’ 1st-round pick has resolved itself nicely over the final two weeks of the regular season, as Kincaid finished the year with 15 targets for 11 catches and 171 receiving yards in his last two games as a rookie. Kincaid’s year was marked by underwhelming downfield usage and low snap percentages overall, but it was fairly obvious who the more dynamic option is between him and the incumbent starter, Dawson Knox. Managers should be optimistic about Kincaid moving forward as a true #2 in the Bills’ offense with the potential to blossom into the top target later in his career. Kincaid is a fantastic value in the late 3rd-mid 4th range of startups if you can get him there, but I will admit he’s a bit inflated for my taste at his current market value.
1.10: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
May ADP: 2.05
The strategy of “just draft the Chiefs WR” finally seemed to have panned out with this rookie class. Following the disappointment of some other young Chiefs WRs with perceived “upside”, Rice came in and, after a few weeks to get settled, thrived as Mahomes’ 2nd threat in the receiving game. His finishes over the final six games of the fantasy season: WR3, WR22, WR12, WR7, WR35, WR14. Rice thrived in a unique sort of power-slot YAC-focused role, being peppered with targets and producing efficient totals despite low ADOTs. Sound familiar?
Yeah, this storyline is awfully similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s back half of his rookie year. I’m not saying Rice is ARSB, as that’s a pretty unfair comparison to make, but the similarities in their role and production are pretty striking. Rice is a top target for me this offseason, but I’ll probably wait for some of the hype to die down before investing.
1.11: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
May ADP: 1.07
One of my favorite sells this season was Jordan Addison, who shot up to the to back end of the top 10 WRs in dynasty around midseason. This was due, of course, to the Justin Jefferson injury coinciding with some of the most remarkable touchdown variance I’ve witnessed as a fantasy player. I personally was able to flip Addison + for assets like A.J. Brown and used Addison as needle movers in huge deals, including one Josh Allen acquisition. Over the course of the season after this peak, Addison regressed toward the WR2 production we all knew was coming, finishing as the WR23, averaging 13.02 PPR PPG. Addison will once again likely be an overweight asset in 2024, so while I’ll acknowledge his market value here at the 1.11 in this redraft, I do think he’s a top sell candidate.
1.12: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
May ADP: 1.09
Zay Flowers’ franchise record-setting rookie season was admittedly slightly underwhelming from a fantasy perspective but genuinely impressive nonetheless. Flowers exhibited his explosiveness as a route runner and after the catch all season as the Ravens’ best playmaker alongside Lamar Jackson. I struggle to buy into Zay as a consistent and reliable week-to-week producer. Still, his explosiveness, in tandem with the potency of this offense as a whole, makes him a threat to put together some monster fantasy performances as he continues to grow into his role. I do worry that he may be a little gadgety, but to a certain degree, touches are touches, and we can’t split hairs. I don’t mind Zay at his current cost, which is the WR27 on fantasycalc (he may even be a nice value there), but I also think there exist better investments for what some will ask you to pay for Zay.
The 2023 rookie class was simply awesome, and the sky’s the limit to what these guys will accomplish in their careers. I hope you’ve bought in heavily because it will be a fun ride as these guys ascend to the top of the fantasy world!
Thanks for reading! I hope you were able to learn something, or at least found this piece entertaining. You can find me @bwinknfl on Twitter/X and TikTok, where you can see more day-to-day content and short videos. Subscribe to the DFF YouTube channel and check out some other recent articles to dominate your leagues! #DFFArmy
