Dynasty

Sell High Dynasty Assets

Dynasty / By /

Part of your duty as a dynasty owner is identifying high asset players and moving off of them before their value drops to a point you’re unable to get anything for them. It can be a hard pill to swallow, saying good-bye to a high caliber player who is in the prime of their career. But to sustain your team and remain competitive for years (not to mention avoid the uncertainty of an unknown rebuild), you will have to cut ties and gain maximum value for players. These decisions can be hard, but for Dynasty Football Factory members, they just became a lot easier.

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Win-Now is Not a Dirty Word

Dynasty / By /

We enter as a young boy talks with his (dynasty fantasy football) friends. His friends are scolding him for only playing with toys that are “so last year”. The young boy says to his friends, “I love these toys, they are fun to bring out and play with every time. I bet I can beat your toys in battle with my win-now team”. The rest of his friends gasp in the way that sheltered kids do when they’re not sure if parents are around, and they want to be able to save face with them if they were listening to what their friend just uttered. The young boy replies, “What? Win-now is not a dirty word!”I find myself playing dynasty much like this young boy likes to play with his toys. I see other owners celebrating players who have yet to break out like it’s a certainty that they do or entering start-up drafts while having no intention to win year one. I’ve been there, done that. Sometimes it works out well, other times you end up with a garbage roster full of post-hype players. Over years of playing dynasty, I’ve heard people talk about a three-year window or even a five-year window. I have found the most productive rosters I construct utilize a two-year window.There are quite a few benefits to this theology. Here are some of my favorites:Productive veteran players provide what might be the biggest competitive advantage in dynasty leaguesOwners are petrified to push the button in drafts on players who they believe only have one or two years of productivity left. When these types of players find themselves on rebuilding teams, the acquisition cost can be of insane value. Let’s take an example:-Julio Jones represents a player that dynasty players and redraft players are very different on. Per June ADP on DFF, Jones has an ADP of 22 overall (WR9). On Fantasypros.com which aggregates many ADP sources for redraft, Julio has an ADP of 11 overall (WR4). A difference of nearly a full round in 12 team leagues. You can find players who have a bigger difference, but in my opinion, dynasty ADP should roughly mirror redraft ADP for at least the first couple rounds. My rationale for saying so is the point of fantasy is to win. If the redraft community says that he is worth a late first-round selection and there’s no good reason to say he won’t be able to roughly duplicate a likely top 12 WR season from 2019 again in 2020, this should be a player worth pulling the trigger on close to his redraft valuation.I could go into his current contract dispute shedding light on the fact that he may find his way to a new team in 2020, but he’s still under contract for 2020 and I can’t fathom a world where he is a cap casualty at this point. Now you can quibble with Julio’s value all you want, but there’s more than just him slipping in dynasty drafts compared to redraft.

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Factory Fantasy Mail Bag

Dynasty / By /

Hello loyal readers. We are excited to debut the “Factory Fantasy Mail” today with Dan Cook answering several of our member’s questions. Dan talks about the best scoring settings for leagues, how late should, or can, you wait on a quarterback in superflex leagues. He also answers how many NFL rosters can you start three linebackers from and how early should you select IDP players in startup drafts. So, sit back, relax and watch the answers to your questions. Don’t forget if you have questions you want to watch answered on the video mailbag, send them to us so we can answer them at:

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Dynasty Outlook: NFC North Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome to the Dynasty Outlook series where I discuss a buy low, sell high and deep sleeper for each NFL team. Today we will start off with the NFC North. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant players in this division. Let’s take a deeper dive into the values on these fantasy players![exceltable id=’47826′]Chicago BearsBuy Low: Mitch TrubiskyIn the month of June, Trubisky had an ADP of 148.7 and is the 18th quarterback taken off the board, while he finished last year as QB14. He threw for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while rushing for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns in 14 games. He was in his first year under Head Coach, Matt Nagy, and I look to see him have a breakout third season. The current QB14 taken in startup drafts is Jameis Winston with an ADP of 133.7, which is about a round before Trubisky. Of the top 20 quarterbacks in 2018, only two played in 13 games (Baker, QB17 and Mitch, QB14), one played in 14 games (Cam, QB10) and the other 17 played in all 15 fantasy football season games. If Mitch doesn’t miss those two games and keeps his 19.4 PPG, he would have finished inside the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks last season.

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Using VBD to Determine Your Chances of Contention

Dynasty / By /

Sometimes in dynasty fantasy football, it can be hard to know if your roster is worthy of a championship run or not. There are stacked teams, but this is a high variance game that we so love, so even the stacked teams find ways not to win sometimes. Today I’ll show you how to quantifiably show you are in the ballpark of contention for either a playoff spot or a championship run.

How do we do that, Mike? Well, if you’ve read my stuff before, you know I love using VBD (Value Based Drafting) for a variety of subjects. If you haven’t read some of it before, I’ve previously shown you how to game your league format using the concept, as well as quantifying how much tight-end-premium scoring really matters. A lot can be learned from comparing players to “replacement level”. That’s the very basic definition of VBD if you’re unfamiliar with the concept.

Alright already, let’s get into it then! First off, VBD is built off projections. So you will have to find your favorite set of, hopefully fairly granular projections, and get them into a player database. Once you have this, you can apply your league’s scoring format to the season-long projections for every player to determine just how many points each player projects to score, specifically for your league. For this article, I’m using my good buddy @FF_TomB ‘s season-long projections. It’s honestly better than anything I could have gotten put together this year, not having done so before. Plus he let me in to see how the “sausage is made” so to speak and I wholeheartedly approve of his methodology. I also held a contest on Twitter to decide whose league to break down. My fellow “815” guy @JasonTran guessed my favorite Chicago Bear of all time correctly.

If you don’t know who Peanut Tillman is, look him up. He’s a genuinely cool person outside of the sport too. But…that’s not why you clicked the link to this article!

Scoring / Starting Requirements

Here are the scoring and starting requirements for Jason’s league:

As you can see here, it’s a relatively normal starting lineup for an offense only Superflex league. Flex heavy lineups allow for some cool roster construction techniques compared to more rigid starting lineup settings. A few things to note about their scoring that’s different from many leagues.

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RB Theorem: Benny Friedman’s 40

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Author Note: Recently, I received an email from stathead (a mailer from the great sports statistics website sports-reference.com). The email detailed the NFL statistical leaders of the 1920s. I took notice that Benny Friedman threw a league-leading 40 touchdown passes during the decade. From my past research, I knew that was a lot for the

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Preseason Top 10 2020 prospects: Wide Receivers 6-10

Devy, Dynasty / By /

The word for a while has been all about how crazy talented the skill position groups are for the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. I was skeptical of it at first glance. It wasn’t until I settled in to watch these players that I realized that it could be a historic class. The headliner group is the wide receiver group. In both fantasy and real football, wide receivers are becoming more and more valuable due to the increase in passing efficiency and new offenses of the era.I was impressed by the 2019 class because it not only had a definite superstar candidate in DK Metcalf, but it also had depth. Last year’s class was an insanely deep group of talented wide receivers. There were 28 total wide receivers drafted with about 23 undrafted players I gave a draftable grade to. It was a phenomenally deep class of players.The 2020 group beats it. I don’t mean simply beat, I mean outclassed in a 2003 Oklahoma-Texas A&M style blowout. Not only does this class have superstar talents, it has *several*. It was so difficult to narrow down the list to just ten players for this article, and several others could have made their case for it. To properly narrow down this list and give each player their due justice, I had to split this thing in half.Here is my WRs from 10-6:10. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma StateOklahoma State has a history of producing NFL caliber wide receivers in recent history, with guys like Dez Bryant, Justin Blackmon, and James Washington being taken high in their respective drafts. Tylan Wallace will join that list soon. Wallace is an explosive athlete and a phenom in contested catch situations with great body control.He’ll need to cut down on his drop numbers, but his QB Taylor Cornelius didn’t deliver him an accurate ball most of the time. Being an Oklahoma State product, his routes are fairly limited, but there are traits for him to build off of to become successful in this area.Pro Comp: Paul Richardson, Washington RedskinsBest Fit: New Orleans SaintsThe Saints wide receivers are Michael Thomas and a bunch of guys. Ted Ginn is effective but aging, and we’re still waiting for signs of life from former 3rd rounder Tre’Quan Smith. Tylan Wallace would be a great fit in Sean Payton’s offense as a deep threat as a Z or even in the slot. With Thomas dominating and altering the defense, Tylan’s explosiveness and contested catch ability would be a mismatch.

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Melvin Gordon Hold-out Reaction

Dynasty / By /

With the Los Angeles Chargers a little over two weeks away from opening training camp, news broke today that absent a new contract extension, star running back Melvin Gordon does not plan to be there. Adam Schefter reported the news via Twitter this morning. Now Melvin Gordon owners everywhere are forced to hold their breath and cross their fingers that we aren’t on the verge of another Le’Veon Bell situation.

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Why DeAndre Hopkins should be the 1.01 in Dynasty Startups

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Ask anyone in the dynasty community and most will say Saquon Barkley(NYG- RB), Christian McCaffrey (CAR – RB), Alvin Kamara (NO – RB) or Ezekiel Elliot (DAL – RB) are going in the top four in dynasty startup drafts. There is an argument for all four to go 1.01.  If your league is 2 QB or superflex, then Patrick Mahomes (KC – QB) is another player that will be in consideration for the 1.01. All of these players are great choices and I am not telling you to pass on these guys if you are in love with them. One thing I noticed when looking at the most recent Dynasty Football Factory ADP is that there are zero wide receivers going in the top three in single quarterback startup dynasty drafts. Hopkins has the current best ADP for dynasty startups with 3.5. Why are receivers being passed on? I am here to tell you why you should draft a WR as your top asset.  More specifically, I will discuss why DeAndre Hopkins (HOU – WR) should be your 1.01 in dynasty startup drafts!

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Second Year Wide Receivers to Buy Before It’s Too Late!

Dynasty / By /

With most dynasty rookie drafts wrapped up and training camps still a few weeks away, June is a great time to start evaluating your dynasty roster for 2019 and beyond. With that in mind, below is a deep dive on three wideouts I’m actively looking to target this summer. All three are guys who could easily outperform the cost of the acquisition this preseason, and perhaps start paying off as early as 2019. 

Robert Foster – Buffalo Bills
Latest Dynasty Football Factory ADP: 136 Overall, WR59
My Dynasty Valuation: 119 Overall, WR44

Signed as an undrafted rookie free agent……….

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