Dynasty

Dynasty Outlook: Michael Gallup

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Take a close look at the following information and try to answer this question: does this sound like an offense that can effectively support a second relevant fantasy wide receiver?
-A QB who has failed to eclipse 4,000 passing yards in a season during his career
-A team that has averaged 26th in the league in pass attempts during the last three seasons
-An RB who is averaging 100+ rushing yards and 130+ yards from scrimmage per game in his career
-A team that has averaged fifth in the league in rushing attempts during the last three seasons
-A recent addition at WR that has posted 1,000+ yards in three of his last four seasons

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Dynasty Strategy: Going All In

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In Dynasty Leagues you are either rebuilding, retooling, or going all-in. For some of us, the fun in a dynasty league is rebuilding or retooling our team. Hell, isn’t that the reason you chose the worst-rated team in Madden franchise mode to build them back up from the bottom to get your hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Sometimes the lines can get blurred when you’re in the retooling phase. You’re one or maybe two players away from putting you over the top and one or two away from forcing your hand into a rebuild.I’ve talked about doing the rebuild for your dynasty league. Now let’s talk about going all-in. Although not as “scary” as a full rebuild, there are some things that you need to keep in mind as you push the chips to the center of the table.WHO ELSE IS IN ALL-IN MODE?Everyone is operating on a different timeline. As noted before, you are either rebuilding, retooling, or going all-in. Take an honest assessment of your team and your opponents’ teams. Every player in fantasy should be viewed as a stock, either rising or dropping. If your players are rising then you’re headed for, or on the cusp of, all-in mode.CONGRATULATIONS! You’re almost there.As fun as it is rebuilding a team, we’re ultimately playing to win it all. To rub it in our friend’s face, indulge ourselves in the spoils of a successful season. But how do you put yourself over the top, ensuring a victory over your fellow “all-in comrades”?Simple, get veterans.Rookies are coveted in dynasty leagues. They’re your team’s future, the foundation on which your team will be built on for future seasons’ glories.Here’s a fun stat from last year, because I know we all love stats. Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Calvin Ridley, and Chris Herndon were all the highest scoring rookies at their respective positions last year.All of these rookies finished outside of the top 15 in scoring at their position last year, except for Saquon, who passes the eye test and looks to be a fantasy football god in the making and has “Zero to Hero,” from Hercules playing in my head every time I see highlights of him. Baker finished at QB16, Calvin at WR18, and Chris at TE15.

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Dynasty Outlook: Will Fuller vs Keke Coutee

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Over the last few weeks, I’ve seen quite a bit of discussion and debate surrounding the Houston Texan’s wide receiving corps. At the top of the depth chart is arguably the best receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins. There isn’t much room for discussion as to who will command the majority of targets in that offense.

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Dynasty Hot Routes: Tight End Pontifications

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The mission of this article is to make our in-house experts sizzle and bristle over the hot button issues that face dynasty owners. Our experts make the entire route tree HOT as they address topics from the world of IDP, Devy, Start/Sit, Non-PPR (standard scoring), PPR, and everything in between. Try not to get burned by all the fiery YAC below! This is Dynasty Hot Routes, tight end edition!

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The Rise of Ridley the Route Runner

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If you’re anything like me, there are fewer things in this world more satisfying than watching a wide receiver dismantle a defensive back with a nasty, precise route on his way to scoring a touchdown. You know exactly what I’m talking about, don’t you? You can picture it in your head – the receiver aggressively comes off the line and forces the cornerback into a frantic back peddle. Next, the receiver breaks hard towards the middle of the field…the defender’s hips turn…and suddenly you can feel the six points coming from your couch. The receiver turns upfield and is immediately so open, you wonder if the defender was ever there. The quarterback hits him in stride as he crosses the goal line while the defender is left behind. Simply beautiful.Now, maybe there are a few things in this world that are more satisfying than what I just described, but you have to appreciate the technical effort that goes into making that play happen in only a matter of seconds. One of the best young route runners in the league, and arguably the most exciting rookie wide receiver last year, is Calvin Ridley, and he is quickly making a name for himself in the league.Coming out of college, his Draft Profile Analysis started with the following statements from NFL Analyst Lance Zierlein, “Ridley has game-changing talent complete with blazing speed and rare route-running ability for a college prospect. He ran the full route tree at Alabama, has experience working in a pro-style attack and is a plug-and-play starter on day one.” Prior to him even stepping onto the field for a professional game, he was already known for his incredible route running abilities.Before I dive into the numbers and analysis, if you haven’t yet seen some of Calvin Ridley’s proficient route running, go do that and then come back and finish reading this. Better yet, check out some of my recent tweets and you’re sure to see some Ridley routes in there. I want you to be able to picture the greatness in your mind as I convince you that he is one of the most dominant young wideouts in the game.

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Breakout Third-Year Wide Receivers, Part 2

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Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class.  I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player). Here is part two of this piece.

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Not Your Average Joe

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It has been a while since we’ve witnessed a fantasy running back as polarizing and talented as Joe Mixon. Last I can recall is Demarco Murray, maybe (feel free to offer suggestions, could be a fun discussion topic). Either way, the Joe Mixon takes are HOT. Some believe he can’t crack the top 10 again, and others project him as a candidate to finish the number one fantasy running back. Either one of those things can happen. I mean anything is possible, but what I want to analyze is the notion Mixon can’t be a top-five fantasy running back. This idea has been tossed around the twitter-verse and all over the fantasy community, but there is a strong case he will take the leap this year and elevate his play in 2019. The arrival of former LA Rams QB coach Zac Taylor and the West Coast offense is a major indicator Joe Mixon will be better utilized this year. Taylor played a major role in overseeing and constructing one of the most high powered offenses in the league last year. Sean McVay noted: “he was instrumental our in third-down game-planning.”  Placing more emphasis on passing the ball certainly didn’t hurt Todd Gurley’s fantasy production last season. Gurley was the number three fantasy running back with 1,831 total yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns in 14 games. The Bengals new offensive philosophy will have a dual effect, improving Mixon’s rushing and passing production. A breakdown of each aspect reveals how Joe Mixon and Zac Taylor can take his game to the next level. …………………….

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Future WR Stars

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Two statistical measurements are quickly growing in popularity among fantasy football analysts – Dominator Rating and Breakout Age. Essentially, these two variables tell us how productive a player was in college at their peak, and how old they were when that (hopefully) high level of production occurred. As I have become more comfortable working these numbers, I began to draw comparisons between established NFL players and incoming rookies with similar Dominator Ratings and Breakout Ages.According to PlayerProfiler, an incoming player with a Dominator Rating greater than 45% and a Breakout Age less than 19 years old is phenomenal. For the sake of this article, I am using a Dominator Rating of greater than 40% and a Breakout Age of younger than 20 years old for my comparative research on wide receivers. To filter out those rookies who produced immediately upon entering the league, I am using 600 yards receiving as a rookie and draft capital inside of Day 2 (Rounds 1-3) as my final cut off variable.Since 2010, there have been nine players who have met the cutoff of having a Dominator Rating of 40% or greater, a Breakout Age of less than 20 years old, who had at least 600 receiving yards their rookie year and were drafted in Rounds 1-3.

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Tyler Boyd Contract: Fake extension or legit?

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One of my favorite buy-lows from last season got himself some new PAPER this offseason, signing a four year, $43m extension per Adam Shefter.Bengals are signing WR Tyler Boyd to a four-year, $43 million extension, league sources tell ESPN. Boyd now will be under contract through the 2023 season.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 23, 2019His role as the Bengals WR2 for 2019, and WR1 in 2020-2023 is cemented in stone, right?Well, as you know if you read my piece on the Kyle Rudolph extension earlier this offseason, NFL contracts as initially reported can be quite deceiving. Let’s have a look at it now that we know the full details of the structure of the guaranteed money in the deal.The ContractPer Overthecap, here’s how it breaks down:- I have conditioned myself when looking at these tables to focus on the “cap number” column and to the right of it. I do this because it lays out quite nicely what it takes for a team to cut Boyd, should they so choose year by year. This is not an exact science by any means, but I start to look for when a team can save $6m towards their cap, this is when a player starts to be in jeopardy of becoming a cap casualty.

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Breakout Third-Year Wide Receivers, Part 1

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Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class.  I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player).

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Lockett Up: The Time To Buy is Now

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Let’s go back to 2015. A small, rookie wide receiver out of Kansas State, standing only 5’10”, 182 pounds, who was extremely fast (4.40 40), earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. He showed game-breaking ability as a receiver and returner, racking up over 1,000 total return yards and two touchdowns. He had 51 receptions for 664 yards, six touchdowns and finished as the WR44. The next two seasons he finished as the WR65 and WR57 respectively. In his fourth year, he would have one of the most efficient seasons of any receiver and finish as the WR16. If you haven’t figured it out by now, I am talking about the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, Tyler Lockett.

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Sell High Dynasty Assets

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Part of your duty as a dynasty owner is identifying high asset players and moving off of them before their value drops to a point you’re unable to get anything for them. It can be a hard pill to swallow, saying good-bye to a high caliber player who is in the prime of their career. But to sustain your team and remain competitive for years (not to mention avoid the uncertainty of an unknown rebuild), you will have to cut ties and gain maximum value for players. These decisions can be hard, but for Dynasty Football Factory members, they just became a lot easier.

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Win-Now is Not a Dirty Word

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We enter as a young boy talks with his (dynasty fantasy football) friends. His friends are scolding him for only playing with toys that are “so last year”. The young boy says to his friends, “I love these toys, they are fun to bring out and play with every time. I bet I can beat your toys in battle with my win-now team”. The rest of his friends gasp in the way that sheltered kids do when they’re not sure if parents are around, and they want to be able to save face with them if they were listening to what their friend just uttered. The young boy replies, “What? Win-now is not a dirty word!”I find myself playing dynasty much like this young boy likes to play with his toys. I see other owners celebrating players who have yet to break out like it’s a certainty that they do or entering start-up drafts while having no intention to win year one. I’ve been there, done that. Sometimes it works out well, other times you end up with a garbage roster full of post-hype players. Over years of playing dynasty, I’ve heard people talk about a three-year window or even a five-year window. I have found the most productive rosters I construct utilize a two-year window.There are quite a few benefits to this theology. Here are some of my favorites:Productive veteran players provide what might be the biggest competitive advantage in dynasty leaguesOwners are petrified to push the button in drafts on players who they believe only have one or two years of productivity left. When these types of players find themselves on rebuilding teams, the acquisition cost can be of insane value. Let’s take an example:-Julio Jones represents a player that dynasty players and redraft players are very different on. Per June ADP on DFF, Jones has an ADP of 22 overall (WR9). On Fantasypros.com which aggregates many ADP sources for redraft, Julio has an ADP of 11 overall (WR4). A difference of nearly a full round in 12 team leagues. You can find players who have a bigger difference, but in my opinion, dynasty ADP should roughly mirror redraft ADP for at least the first couple rounds. My rationale for saying so is the point of fantasy is to win. If the redraft community says that he is worth a late first-round selection and there’s no good reason to say he won’t be able to roughly duplicate a likely top 12 WR season from 2019 again in 2020, this should be a player worth pulling the trigger on close to his redraft valuation.I could go into his current contract dispute shedding light on the fact that he may find his way to a new team in 2020, but he’s still under contract for 2020 and I can’t fathom a world where he is a cap casualty at this point. Now you can quibble with Julio’s value all you want, but there’s more than just him slipping in dynasty drafts compared to redraft.

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Factory Fantasy Mail Bag

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Hello loyal readers. We are excited to debut the “Factory Fantasy Mail” today with Dan Cook answering several of our member’s questions. Dan talks about the best scoring settings for leagues, how late should, or can, you wait on a quarterback in superflex leagues. He also answers how many NFL rosters can you start three linebackers from and how early should you select IDP players in startup drafts. So, sit back, relax and watch the answers to your questions. Don’t forget if you have questions you want to watch answered on the video mailbag, send them to us so we can answer them at:

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