Can Diontae Johnson Bounce Back?

Just two short years ago, Diontae Johnson was coming off a WR8 overall finish, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game. He broke out as a Year 2 player with a Top 24 fantasy finish and followed that up with a truly elite third season. Heading into 2022, Diontae was being drafted as an early-to-mid WR2 in most Dynasty leagues. His combination of youth and production made him an enticing target in the fourth round of Superflex startups. 

Since then, Diontae owners have experienced nothing but pain. Johnson followed up his 17.2 FPPG season with 10.6 and 11.8 FPPG, respectively. Now, Diontae is going off the board as the WR48, according to Dynasty Data Lab. The fall in Dynasty value has been undoubtedly tragic for Johnson, but he now finds himself in a new situation as we head into 2024. Are the Panthers a good fit for Diontae? Is he finally set up for a bounce-back season, or will Diontae owners get caught holding the bag as his value plummets to zero? I’m going to try and answer these questions for you below.

Peripherals

While Diontae has been mediocre at best from a fantasy perspective these past two years (relative to cost), his peripheral numbers have remained strong throughout. Below, I’ve charted Johnson’s target rate numbers, as well as his expected fantasy points per game, from the past four seasons. These numbers were pulled from PlayerProfiler: 

In a nutshell, expected fantasy points per game calculate what a player is projected to score with league-average play based on their opportunities. It factors in a number of variables, like depth of target, down and distance, red zone opportunities, etc. As we can see above, Diontae’s expected FPPG far exceeded his actual FPPG these past two seasons. This was due in large part to the egregious quarterback play from the Steelers with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky under center. The last time Diontae had at least average quarterback play was back in 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger, and he finished as the WR8 overall. You may be saying, “Well, it’s not going to get any better in Carolina. Bryce Young sucks!” I hear you. I’ll cover that in a bit. 

We’ve seen Johnson’s target rate take a small dip in each of the past two seasons but has yet to fall out of the Top 24 WRs since 2020. In the NFL, a target rate of 24% or more is excellent and tells us Diontae is at least seeing enough opportunities to be in a position to produce in our fantasy lineups on a weekly basis. 

2024 Projections

On PFF, Diontae Johnson is projected to finish with 64.7 receptions, 759.6 yards, and 4.4 touchdowns in 2024. This equates to a measly 9.8 FPPG, which would be tied for his worst season ever, back when he was a rookie. If these projections prove to be accurate, Diontae should pretty much be off your radar in all situations. A receiver entering their age 28 season who isn’t cracking double-digit fantasy points per contest is essentially useless. That said, I expect far more from Diontae in 2024 and believe he could easily give us another Top-24 fantasy WR finish. Here’s why:

1. Diontae is almost certainly Bryce Young’s WR1 this upcoming season. Rookies Xavier Legette and Ja’Tavion Sanders were added to this receiving corps this offseason but will need to prove their worth. Adam Thielen will be turning 34 next month. And Jonathon Mingo has shown us enough to know he’s not a threat. The path to a 30% target share for Johnson is possible, as crazy as that sounds. 

2. The Panthers won’t be a playoff contender, but they will be much improved from last season. The biggest issue in 2023 was the offensive line, which ranked 27th in pass blocking and 28th in run blocking grade. This issue has been addressed this offseason with the signings of Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. Bryce should have some time to actually go through his progressions and find an open man in Year 2. 

3. According to ESPN writer David Newton, Diontae Johnson finished as the WR12 in ESPN Open Score last year and led the NFL in this statistic over the past two seasons. Open score is exactly what it sounds like – it tells us how effective a receiver is at creating separation and getting open. This is something Bryce Young was in dire need of in 2023. Thielen was the best Panther wide receiver in terms of Open Score, finishing as the WR47 overall. Diontae has had his fair share of drop issues in the past, but no one can deny that this young man is one of the best route runners in the NFL today. 

Conclusion

Based on Diontae Johnson’s current Dynasty price, I’m comfortable betting on him and would label him a “buy”. On KeepTradeCut, Diontae is valued around an early 2025 2nd-round pick. If I can trade a single second-round pick for someone who is assumedly the WR1 on his team and has proven he can earn a large target share year after year, I’m completely fine making that deal. 

Sure, there may have been better landing spots for Diontae this offseason, but I don’t hate the landing spot in Carolina. I expect Johnson to be Young’s first read on most of his dropbacks. Diontae is effective around the line of scrimmage and will serve as Bryce’s safety net. Young is actually quite accurate in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, which is where I expect Diontae will be operating most of the time. And while Carolina will be better than last year, they’ll still be playing from behind a lot, meaning they’ll be throwing the football frequently.

I believe we’ll see a stat line somewhere along the lines of 125 targets, 90 receptions, 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns for Diontae in 2024. This would put him at approximately 13 FPPG over a 17-game season. At the price tag of a low-end WR4, I’ll take that value in a heartbeat. Johnson is still young enough to where we can expect another 2-3 years of a 24% target share or more, which generally puts you well into double digits in terms of FPPG. Diontae has always gotten the looks; he just needs to translate those into fantasy points. I believe he can, and we’ll see a bounce-back from Diontae Johnson in 2024. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding