In the fantasy football Twitter space, different and new stats and metrics are thrown out constantly by people talking about their favorite and least favorite players. My job as a numbers-based analyst is to understand which statistics best project fantasy success. In this mini-series, I will go through each position and tell you some of my favorite stats, how much they matter, and stats I often see that do not matter as much as someone might want you to think. Let’s dive right in with our first position: wide receiver.
The Stats
First, we need to determine what group of stats we want to study. For this piece, I will be looking at PPR points per game, points per route run, yards per route run, target share, target rate (targets divided by routes run), raw targets, air yards per game, and points per target. These are a collection of the most commonly used stats I see on Twitter, so I thought it would be good to start here. This way, when I see a Twitter post or read an article fighting for or against a given WR, I will know if the stats they are using matter.
I collected data from WRs that played at least 10 games and had at least 40 targets in two or more consecutive seasons from 2018 to 2021. Consecutive seasons could be 2018 to 2019, 2019 to 2020, or 2020 to 2021. So some WRs will have multiple data points included here, some will only have one, and some will have none. Now that we have our stats and players, we can start analyzing.
The Math
To determine which stats are more meaningful than others, I approached this in a predictive manner. Typically when certain stats are used, the person is using past stats to say that a player will be good or bad in a future sample. So, to simulate this, I took a player’s stats from one year and then compared them against their PPR ppg in the following season. For example, I took all the players’ 2018 target shares and plotted them against their PPR performances in 2019 (hence why they needed two consecutive seasons). This now gives me an example of a relationship between target share in a previous season and how well it correlates with PPR ppg in the following season. Then we do this for each stat and each season. After we compare all of this data, we have a bunch of scatter plots that we can use linear regression on. They look like this.
The linear regression gives us an R^2 value for each stat. The graph on the left would have a high R^2 value because it almost makes a perfectly straight line. The highest R^2 possible is 1.0. This would mean that the two sets of data you are comparing had a 100% match in correlation. The graph on the right would have a weak R^2 number, maybe around 0.15. You can still see the relationship moving up and to the right, but the points are all over the place and less predictable. So, now that I have all of my R^2 data, we can learn what stats are the most predictive year over year.
The Results
In the chart above, I have displayed each stat and how well it predicted a player’s fantasy points the following year. I have also ranked the stats by how well I think they did. Surprisingly, plain old PPR points per game were by far the most useful for predicting future points per game. Next, come the route run stats. Remember, these players needed to play in 10+ games and see 40+ targets, so it removes all players that just caught a few deep balls and did nothing else. Next, we have the target stats, which makes sense. If a player can earn good volume or be targeted consistently, they will probably be good next season as well. And in the bottom, we have some of the newer metrics. Air yards per game and points per target did not perform well, and I would be weary of arguments made using these stats.
Now that we have this information, we can apply it to 2022’s stats and try to look forward to the 2023 season! But first, let’s see if the 2021 data was useful in 2022.
Tyler Lockett ended the season as the WR16 in PPR ppg and crushed his ADP. Also, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill all definitively outplayed their ADPs and were bonafide league winners.
Allen Robinson was awful this season. Rashod Bateman was okay when healthy but was not a difference-maker in his good games. Courtland Sutton was outplayed by Jerry Jeudy and finished as a WR4. He did not help you this season. Overall, I would say these numbers did very well in helping me find players to avoid and target in Redraft and Dynasty. Now, let us look at 2022 stats and see who we want to have on our radar in dynasty startups.
The Future
Here are the top 20 players from the 2022 season. Most of the names are pretty obvious, but there are a few I’d like to highlight. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR8 overall, is a stud in the league at this point. I will be targeting him in my start-ups. DeVonta Smith is WR10 on KTC, and I agree with this value; I think it is very fair. He would be a guy I am not necessarily buying but would be okay with drafting at cost and love getting him if he falls. Amari Cooper is WR37 on KTC, and I am buying. With Watson progressing, we will only see Cooper get better. Still only 28 years old, he has gas in the tank and is ready to win you some fantasy championships. Keenan Allen, still playing at an elite level, should age gracefully, tied to a young-elite QB in a high-scoring offense. WR44 on KTC is a smash buy. Jakobi Meyers and Tyler Lockett are similar-style players, WR63 and 49 on KTC, respectively. These are crazy values and great picks in startups.
Now let’s look at the bottom of the list, players you don’t want to own. Elijah Moore, you may see him here and blame Zach Wilson, but his teammate Garrett Wilson is 25th overall. Currently WR45 on KTC, I’d want him more at WR50 prices. His new situation is promising, but again, I am not so sure we can blame this all on Zach Wilson. Buy with caution.
No one else is really of note at the bottom. They’re all pretty obvious. So let’s pull out some names from the middle area.
Christian Watson, WR20 on KTC. I used to think this was a tad pricey, but after seeing him land top 30 here and considering his age, it may be worth it. His only red flag is his future at QB. Rashod Bateman did surprisingly well in limited games and dealing with injury. He’s the WR38 on KTC, but I’d have him higher than that, around WR30. Wan’Dale Robinson is a name people may have forgotten due to injury. But I haven’t. He performed well when healthy and proves it here. At WR51, I will be buying for sure. People may also forget he had a great prospect profile. Add that to a good performance in these stats, and we have a hot one. Hopefully, I did a good job explaining all of this. I know data like this can be overwhelming. If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, I would love to talk more about this!
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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