Breaking Down the Dynasty WR Landscape: Part 2

Hello DFF members, today I will be continuing my series where I break down the current wide receiver market in Dynasty one ADP tier at a time. If you did not read part one, you can find it here. I recommend reading that first as it introduces and explains all the stats I will reference in this article. But, without further ado, let’s dive into where I left off.

Tier 3 – Elite Old Guys vs. Young Up and Comings

In tier three, we find Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, Stefon Diggs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, D.K. Metcalf, and Drake London. In this tier, I am favoring the vets and London mostly. The vets, especially Kupp, provide actual league-winning productions, while these younger WRs will likely just be career WR2s. Youth does matter, but only to a point. This tier is an excellent example of the youth vs production debate. Tyreek, Diggs, and Kupp provide elite production, but their value could tank quickly due to their age if they got injured. If they have a season in their median to high range of projections (top 10 to top four overall WR), they would only, at best, maintain value or likely lose value.

Meanwhile, Higgins, DeVonta, and Metcalf do not project to provide WR1 numbers, they would maintain value due to injury, but if they had a median outcome season, they would maintain value. To borrow what my friend @Paul_DFF said, these players are like buying insurance. You pay for them in Dynasty because, in the chance they have a bad season or get injured, they will hold their value. If I am not outright tanking, I will take from the Diggs, Tyreek, Kupp group. And in any situations where I am outright tanking, I will take JSN or London. I see few situations in which I am drafting Higgins or Smith, and I would never recommend drafting Metcalf. 

Cooper Kupp is still fantastic, his adjusted points per game are vastly higher than the other vets in the tier, and I don’t think his injury from last year is much to worry about this year. His situation has also gotten better. The Rams lost OBJ and Allen Robinson, who, when healthy, were catching touchdowns in the offense. Their defense has gotten worse, which means more pass attempts for the offense. And the Rams WR2 is a fight between Demarcus Robinson, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell. Kupp is set to smash again in 2023, and I will gladly roll the dice that he is still elite.

My other favorite player in this tier is Drake London. When was the last time we saw a rookie receiver get drafted eighth overall in the NFL draft and then put up a 29% target share, 27% targets per route run, and over 2.0 yards per team pass attempt just to be drafted outside the top two rounds in startups? The answer: never. Drake London had an amazing season in a terrible offensive environment. The Falcons threw a horrendous 415 passes last season, the second-lowest in the league. In 2021, the team with the fewest pass attempts was the Eagles, and they had 494; that’s 80 more than the Falcons had in 2022. The NFL average over 2022-2021 was 580, 165 more than the Falcons, almost 10 per game. Everything about London is elite, except for his rookie year NFL and fantasy production, because his team stunk. In 2022 Marcus Mariota threw 23 passes per game vs. 29 for Desmond Ridder. This was a mid-season change too. Now that Ridder has some experience and gets the entire offseason as the QB1, we could see this increase further. The offense should also be more efficient with the addition of Bijan and a growing group of Ridder, London, and Pitts. I am a big buyer of Drake London in Dynasty.

Tier 4 – Young and No Breakout vs Rookies

This tier of Davante Adams, Christian Watson, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, Michael Pittman, and Treylon Burks is a collection of players that are young, and haven’t truly broken out, are in bad situations, or are total unknowns because they haven’t played in the NFL yet. Then there is Davante Adams. He is much more deserving of being grouped with the likes of Hill, Diggs, and Kupp from the last tier, but he finds himself sitting at the kids’ table. I think people are worried about the uncertainty of Jimmy G, but I don’t think it matters all that much. Davante will still secure a 30% target share and 18 or more points per game, no matter what. I would split this tier up into two groups. The first is Watson, Johnston, Addison, and Jeudy. 

These are guys that I think carry great upside, and we could see big rises in value here. Watson struggled with playing time early and injuries during the season, so his overall numbers aren’t great. But the things he could control, like Targets per Route Run and Yards per Route Run, look very good here. If he can just get on the field more (which he absolutely will), we could see a very nice season from him and, therefore, a considerable value rise.

Jeudy is in a similar boat to Watson, except I have more faith in him because he is an elite route runner. His Y/RR and T/RR are good, but the big thing is he vastly outplayed everyone in his offense last year, and I am expecting a big step forward from the Broncos in 2023. After Hackett was fired, we saw Russell Wilson finish the season as the QB5 overall or better three times. With Sean Payton now in town, I am excited to see what this offense can do, and Jerry Jeudy will be the main beneficiary.

I think Johnston and Addison are similar, so go with your preference here. But if you want my opinion, I prefer Quentin Johnston. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both have outs in their contracts after 2023 that are favorable for the Chargers. I already like QJ for this year, and I think he can beat out Williams for the WR2 job. But the fact that we are potentially only one season away from QJ being the WR1 in a Justin Herbert-led offense is mind-blowing.

Meanwhile, Addison will never not be behind Justin Jefferson, and we have no idea what will happen at QB for the Vikings post Kirk Cousins. My last point is the style of WR they play. Addison needs to be Cooper Kupp to find league-winning upside, while QJ profiles as a traditional X-receiver, which lends to an easier path to WR1 overall seasons. Addison is technically safer, as I would be very surprised if he completely busts, but I think QJ is good and carries a higher upside, so I follow that route.

Next, we have two similar guys in Michael Pittman and D.J. Moore. These players are largely viewed as good by the Dynasty community but have found themselves repeatedly in poor situations. They are currently in offenses that like to run the ball and are led by mobile, non-elite passers. This affects their immediate projections and production, then their future value. I am staying away from these guys as if I am contending I would instead take some players in the next tier, and if I am rebuilding, I would rather take Treylon Burks.

Burks was in a similar situation last year, having to deal with Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs throwing him the ball. He also had a few injuries, so he missed a lot of camp and some of the season. He was a fantastic prospect as a rookie, though, and given a clean slate, we could see much better from him in 2023. He also has the most fluid situation when compared to Pittman and DJM because those guys are tied to Fields and Richardson for the next few years, at least. Meanwhile, Burks gets to play with a known successful pocket passer in Tannehill, and while his backup, Will Levis, is probably not good, at least he is a pocket passer, not a rusher, and could be good. 

I will stop here for now, as we have covered a ton about these WRs. The next part will be the last installment of the series. It will include the final three tiers and some deeper WRs I like to draft late. So look out for that again. If you missed the first part, you can find that here.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.