Big Money Leagues vs. Small Buy-ins

Welcome back, DFF family! On the docket today, I wanted to discuss Dynasty strategy as it pertains to buy-in size. Dynasty leagues have differing annual dues, so your strategy should be tailored to the specific buy-in cost of each league. “High stakes” is a relative term. I consider this to be annual dues of $100 or more. For others, this may be $50, $250, or $500…you get the point. The dollar amount may be different for you, and that’s fine. The purpose of this article is simply to get you thinking about how your strategy should change depending on the buy-in requirement each season. Many fantasy owners take the same approach for all the leagues they play in, which is not necessarily wrong, but I choose to go about things differently. Let me explain what I mean. 

Small Buy-ins

For the small buy-in leagues I am in, I generally take on a more aggressive approach, whether contending or rebuilding. I am less concerned with leverage or waiting to see how my team fairs in-season. If I’m contending, I’m okay with selling off those future ascending assets to get win-now production and worrying about the repercussions later. On the opposite side, as a rebuilder, I am fine with taking two full years to complete my rebuild if it means my team will become even more dominant. 

I am not concerned with the opportunity cost of potentially forfeiting consecutive years of fantasy success to become the “team to beat” on paper for one season. For instance, as a contender, I’d be more willing to consider giving up two future firsts to acquire Christian McCaffrey in a small buy-in league than a high-stakes league. If things go wrong in 2023, I’d be forced to sell CMC for much less than I bought him to jumpstart a rebuild. And giving up multiple firsts will delay that rebuilding process further. But if I feel like an elite RB is what gets me over the hump, I’m okay rolling the dice in those $20-50 leagues. 

The upfront cost is low, so I’m afforded greater flexibility to experiment with new strategies and find out what works versus what doesn’t. A small buy-in league is also one I’d be more comfortable going for the rebuild right off the bat in a startup. Often the cheapest you can acquire future firsts is in a startup when certain teams are fighting to stack their roster in Year 1. If you take this approach, you’re basically saying you’re tanking for the first year or two, which is fine with me, considering the minimal investment. It’s fun to try this in a league or two and watch as the team full of picks transforms into a team with young elite talent and longevity. 

Big Money Leagues

In high-stakes leagues, I suggest a more conservative approach. The goal should be to construct a team with a high floor and keep your team competitive for as many seasons as possible. The ultimate goal in leagues with six playoff spots should be to earn a Top-2 seed and get that bye in week one of the playoffs. But if that’s not achievable, just get yourself a seat at the table. In a standard 12-team league with six playoff spots, your team doesn’t need to be some world-beater to make the postseason. You just have to be average or slightly above average. Once you’re in the playoffs, it’s somewhat of a crapshoot.

Obviously, the better-constructed rosters have a higher percentage chance of winning, but it’s less drastic than one might think. I highly encourage you to check out this episode of The Factory Tour with @paul_dff and @JakobSanderson. 

From about 29:20-31:00, Jakob discusses this in more detail. He states that the higher-ranked team wins just 56% of playoff matchups. So, in general, making that one extra trade to add a bit more firepower for the playoffs isn’t typically going to be the move that wins you a championship. Instead, the best thing you can do is dominate the regular season and earn a bye week, to have one less of those weighted coin-flip matchups in the playoffs.

Even if you’re David facing Goliath, the playoffs aren’t a “Best of 7” series. It’s “lose and go home”. You can easily string together a couple of upsets at the end of the year if your guys get hot at the right time. 

I prefer to keep a foot in both camps in big money leagues, meaning I will stay cautious with a contending or rebuilding approach. If I don’t love my chances heading into the season, I’ll choose to sit on my hands and see how things play out versus prematurely blowing it up. You’d be surprised at how often you’re more competitive than initially projected. If I’m well on my way to the playoffs, I might make a small move or two to increase those odds, but I’m not dumping all my picks and young assets to go all in. Likewise, if my team underperforms and is not in the hunt for a playoff spot, I’m not selling every veteran on my team for future picks. If I’m forced into a rebuild, I want that process to take one season, max. That may mean having a slightly less imposing roster come 2025, but if I have one more playoff berth than I otherwise would have, it’s worth it. 

I’m more hesitant to sell my future first-round picks in high-stakes leagues, as that first gives you the power to reset and shoot for the 1.01 if absolutely necessary. If I can’t acquire “my guy” with current players on my roster and later-round picks, I’ll likely wait it out. Owning your own first keeps you in control of your own destiny to an extent. I like to keep that healthy balance and not over-leverage myself one way or another.

Conclusion

In truth, the monetary prize from winning a Dynasty league is of minimal importance to me. I just want to be competitive and win, regardless of prize money. I’d venture to say that’s why most of you play fantasy football as well. It’s not about the money; it’s about the competition and your love of football.  However, I still lean towards a more conservative approach in my higher-stakes leagues. I prefer not to burn up $100 annually for two or three consecutive seasons because I got overly aggressive with a contending build that didn’t pan out. I want to tell myself a convincing story that I have a fighting chance before forking that money over.

All that said, you shouldn’t be entering into leagues with the mindset that it’s crucial to win “X” percentage of your leagues or recoup your initial investment. If that’s the case, you’re overextended and may want to consider dropping a few leagues. You should be able to feel completely comfortable if you don’t win a single championship in a particular year. We can dive into advanced metrics and create models to project future success all we want, but at the end of the day, fantasy football is not an exact science. It’s mostly random, and nobody’s beaten the system, so you shouldn’t rely on bringing home the prize money in any league you’re in. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding