Athletic Profile

Call it an athletic profile if you wish, but Derrick Henry is not like any other NFL athlete at the running back position. Henry is a freight train that runs on the nightmare fuel of would-be tacklers. Comparing the reigning rushing leader to any other running back is akin to comparing a chihuahua to a pit bull. They might be the same animal, but those dogs are built differently.

Henry’s 4.54/40 yard dash time tells a deceptive story. When you see Henry standing at a towering 6’3” and 247lbs., his speed comes into a different perspective. Henry’s overall speed/burst scores rank in the 97th and 88th percentile on PlayerProfiler. His combination of raw size and speed is unheard of in the modern era of football. While everyone is trying to get smaller and faster, Henry progresses forward with a steadfast demeanour as the league’s most physically dominant running back.

Born Ready

Derrick Henry has been running through defenders with ferocious intent before you or I had ever heard his name. There was a recent viral article released by SportingNews highlighting Derrick Henry’s unreal high school football career. If you’re running short on time, allow me to touch on a few of the high notes.

Henry rushed for over 2,000 yards in every single one of his years as a high school student. He accumulated 4,261 yards as a senior en route to a mind-boggling 12,124 yard, four-year total. Oh, and he had 153 rushing touchdowns in that span as well, averaging 3.1 touchdowns over 48 games. 

As a true freshman for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Henry saw just 36 total rushing attempts in 12 games. He levied his limited opportunities for 382 rushing yards averaging 10.61 yards per carry (YPC). Let’s call that “foreshadowing.” He would win the Heisman in his Junior year, leading the nation with 2219 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns on 395 carries. Henry chose to forgo his senior year, declaring for the 2016 NFL draft at 22 years old.

Past Production

Despite his outstanding collegiate production, Henry fell to the second round of the draft. Selected by the Titans with the 45th pick, Henry was not placed in an optimal position to succeed in his first two seasons. The Titans were adamant on the rookie playing a secondary role behind the shell of veteran running back DeMarco Murray.

Henry did not become the primary back until the retirement of Murray after the 2017-2018 season. In Henry’s first year with at least 200 touches, he rushed for 1,059 yards, averaging 4.92 YPC on 215 carries.

In just his third season as a pro and first as a starter, Henry would cement himself as one of the best pure runners in the NFL. According to PlayerProfiler, Henry created an additional 550 yards in 2018, ranked second amongst running backs that season. Henry achieved that with just 230 total touches, averaging a league-leading 2.39 yards created per touch.

Try as they may, defenses have failed to game plan against Henry since he gained the starting role for the Titans. In 2018 Henry faced more defenders in the box on average than any other running back. When Henry lined up behind the line of scrimmage, he saw an average of 7.4 defenders in the box with a stacked front (8 or more defenders) 44.7% of the time. 

If you haven’t caught onto the trend yet, tackling “the Big Dog” is not an easy task.

The following year, the Titans would change their entire offensive system to cater to Henry’s talents. He led the NFL in rushing in 2019, recording 1539 yards on a whopping 303 carries. Henry tied for first place with Aaron Jones, recording 16 rushing touchdowns.

Henry’s 319 rushing yards over expected (RYoE) ranked first overall in 2019. His 1.05 RYoE/Att ranked first amongst all players with more than 140 attempts in the season. The Titans must follow Fantasy Football by BRoto App exclusive analytics because they quickly realized, more touches for Henry means good things for the offense.

More touches are exactly what he received. Henry would once again lead the NFL in rushing attempts in 2020. This time, the Titans would up his carries by 75. Henry rushed for 2,027 yards on 378 rushing attempts. His league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns were shared with no one. Henry bulldozed his way to his second rushing title, leading the league in both evaded tackles (112) and yards created (1,125) in 2020, per PlayerProfiler. Henry would have ranked fifth in total rushing in 2020 just based on the yards he created after evading the first tackler.

Many doubted Henry’s ability to continue producing efficiently under the weight of such insane usage. After all, history was not necessarily on Henry’s side in terms of negative regression after a 2000 yard rushing season.

Historic Regression

Seven running backs, other than Derrick Henry, have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a single season in NFL history. None of those players have done it in back-to-back seasons. Kyle McKee highlighted the massive historic decline that comes after surpassing the 2000 yard threshold. Kyle outlined the fantasy fall out of the Julio Jones trade on June 23rd for BRoto Fantasy Football. While touching on the future outlook of the Titans offense, he uncovered an incredible correlation in the careers of the seven aforementioned running backs.

Not only has no one ever repeated a 2,000-yard season, but every running back that has checked their ticket into the exclusive club also failed to eclipse 1500 yards the season after. Each running back saw their total carries decrease by at least 40 as well.

Historical trends of negative regression do not apply to Derrick Henry. 

All Aboard the H-Train

Through the first seven weeks of the 2021 NFL season, Derrick Henry has 191 carries. That is not a typo. Henry leads the league in rush attempts this season by 68 carries. He is averaging 27.3 rush attempts per game, on pace to shatter his previous 2020 season total. If Henry continues this usage, he could set an NFL record with 464 rush attempts, 48 more than any previous running back in history. 

Henry is not just on pace to set a historic NFL rushing record. He is closing towards one of the highest-scoring fantasy football seasons ever recorded. Henry currently ranks first amongst running backs, 49.2 points ahead of RB2 (D’Andre Swift) in fantasy points scored in 2021. The Titans’ running back is averaging 26.6 FPTS per game. With the NFL adding an extra game this season, Henry’s averages would equate to a season total of 452.2 FPTS.

Henry would need an unfathomable continuation of his monstrous production to exceed LaDainian Tomlinson’s single-season record of 481.1 FPTS. However, finishing first in overall fantasy points this season is undoubtedly in Derrick Henry’s range of outcomes.

There is no force alive on this planet that can stop Henry’s path to being the first-ever back-to-back 2000 yard rusher.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff. Stay up to date on all of my content on Linktree: @PsychWardFF. You can also find my other works as the Lead Writer at BRoto Fantasy Football.