AJ Dillon, Boston College
AJ Dillon was taken at Pick 62 in Round 2 by the Green Bay Packers and was the sixth running back off the board. He spent three years at Boston College where he ran for 1,685 yards on 318 carries (5.3 yards per carry) and caught 13 passes for 195 yards with 15 total touchdowns during his last year in college.
Athletic Profile
Film Analysis
Running: AJ Dillon is one of the biggest running backs in the draft class as he stands at six feet tall and weighs in at a whopping 247 pounds. His height and weight adjusted scores at the combine were very impressive. However, all that athleticism doesn’t really come through on tape. He doesn’t look that fast on tape and for someone his size, he wasn’t breaking through arm tackles as much as I thought. AJ Dillon does have a violent stifarm though and it’s one that made my eyes open a little wider when he used it. He’s a grinder with solid change of direction for his size, but overall seems best suited as a short yardage back. A big red flag on tape is when I see running backs creating yards only by being bigger or more athletic because in the NFL, the players get bigger and more athletic and it’s less of a guarantee that any of that production can translate. One positive trait is Dillon’s ability to always gain positive yardage even if met in the backfield. I don’t believe his upside is too high, but he has a very athletic profile and can easily have a role as a grinder from day one.
Receiving: 21 catches in three years is not very good. Dillon wasn’t utilized in the passing game, it’s just that simple. His hands are really hit or miss in the few attempts he did get. In the NFL, he should be much better suited to pass blocking instead of receiving.
Pass Blocking: As stated above, Dillon is suited well for a pass protection role in the NFL instead of being used as a receiving threat. He was a very good blocker and this could help him get on the field early in his career.
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Landing Spot Reaction
With both Packers running backs, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, on the last years of their contracts, they chose to pick the successor this year with AJ Dillon. Dillon will have to deal with a very crowded backfield in his rookie year, but he could easily take over the back-up role from Jamaal Williams, meaning he could inherit something around 107 carries. The landing spot isn’t very good for year one, but the Packers will have a year to figure out who they want to lead them in rushing before making a decision on paying Aaron Jones going into 2021. The landing spot could turn into a goldmine if they let both incumbents walk and let Dillon play a Derrick Henry role as he wears down the defense over the course of the game with his violent stiff arm and huge frame.
This is not good news for Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams. Not only does this crowd the backfield, but Dillon should clearly be the goal line back in the offense. Without Jones scoring 16 touchdowns last year, he would have been much closer to finishing as a top 15 running back instead of finishing as a top 4 running back. On top of that, the Packers will need to make a decision on keeping the cheap backup in Williams or pay Jones upper echelon money to stay in 2021. There is a lot of uncertainty both short-term and long-term for them which severely decreases their fantasy values. Rodgers is trying to stay fantasy relevant into his late 30’s, but the front office clearly doesn’t want to help him as he is still left with only Davante Adams as his only true receiving threat.
Dynasty Draft Projection
I did not like Dillon’s tape at all. He was around RB15 for me, and the situation he’s going into is very crowded in his rookie year. There’s a lot of uncertainty in whether or not Dillon will be the main guy in 2021, or if they’ll draft someone or pay Jones to come back. There’s also uncertainty in the quarterback position after the Packers took Jordan Love in round one. If they move on from Rodgers in 2023 when his cap hit is only three million, that whole offense could fall apart. Dillon might be drafted in round 2 of rookie drafts, but I wouldn’t be interested in him until the mid to late third round.
Draft Night-Where would I take him in a dynasty draft? Did he move in my rankings?Thanks for reading and stay tuned to Dynasty Football Factory for all your NFL Draft night coverage. Follow me on Twitter @DFF_JoeMem to join in on the draft conversation!
