For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 8 Recap
Yuck. Well, for the first time this season, I officially went below .500 on my picks. Let’s certainly hope that’s the last time!
My in-depth picks still went 2-1, which is good news as that record climbs to 15-9 on the year.
Last Week: 6-8-0
In-depth picks: 15-9-0
Overall: 66-52-0
Packers (-5) at 49’ers
Wow.
That’s all I have to say about the absolute disaster of a season for the reigning NFC champions. While the Packers are dealing with some COVID-related absences of their own, their issues seem largely relegated to their running back room. Even though the team will miss Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and AJ Dillon, those absences pale in comparison to the mess that is the 49ers. Provided that the virus does not spread further (and the game actually goes ahead as scheduled) give me the Packers with confidence.
Texans (-7) at Jaguars
Both teams also rank near the bottom (30th and 31st) in yards allowed and are in the bottom half of defensive DVOA rankings. What a terrible game this should be…
However, the Jaguars are starting sixth-round rookie Jake Luton at Quarterback. Meanwhile, Houston at least still has Deshaun Watson and a strong supporting offensive cast. Maybe I’m wrong and Luton can pull out some Minshew magic of his own, but the Texans seem to have the clear advantage in this one.
Raiders (+1.5) at Chargers
Poor Chargers fans. That’s rough.
In addition to the losses, the Chargers are now jettisoning decent veterans to contenders as evidenced by the deal that sent Desmond King to Tennessee. King was replaced with Tevaugh Campbell who promptly earned a 46.6 PFF grade for his efforts. The Raiders certainly have issues with their defense, but their offense has come to life in recent weeks (snowstorm game withstanding).
For what it’s worth, underdogs have gone 68-51 (57%) against the spread this year. And while a 1.5 point spread isn’t exactly an “underdog”, I anticipate that trend will continue in this game.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Ravens (-2.5) at Colts
Panthers at Chiefs (-10.5)
Seahawks at Bills (+3)
Bears (+5.5) at Titans
Broncos (+4) at Falcons
Giants at Washington (-3)
Lions (+4) at Vikings
Steelers (-14.5) at Cowboys
Dolphins at Cardinals (-4.5)
Saints (+5.5) at Buccaneers
Patriots (-7) at Jets
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
