To put it lightly, this is not the season fantasy managers hoped for when drafting Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) at his Round One ADP in fantasy drafts this year. 2021’s overall RB4 is quickly falling out of favor and slowly falling out of starting fantasy lineups. Over the last month, he’s been the RB18 and averaged just 11.8 fantasy points per game. So why is this happening and what can we do about it? There are several angles so let’s dive in.
Worrisome Receiving Trend
Mixon delivered a strong performance of 21.5 PPR points in Week 1 without finding the end zone, largely due to a receiving stat line of seven catches, 63 yards, and 13.3 fantasy points through the air. He has the receiving capability. Unfortunately, his receiving yardage has regressed each consecutive week since what now appears to be a Week 1 outlier. Over the last five games, his receiving yardage fell (63-26-14-13-10) and he’s failed to crest 5.6 points through the air in the last four weeks. Since Week 1 Mixon has accumulated a combined 63 total receiving yards over four games.
Career-Low Touchdown Rate
In 2021, the Bengals’ offense racked up 460 points, making them the seventh-highest-scoring offense in the league. This led to a 10-7 record and their first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. By comparison, they currently have a losing record of 2-3, and their point total of 108 ranks 16th in the league. The offense is on pace for 20% fewer points than in 2021. That downturn in scoring hurts a ground-game running back like Joe Mixon, whose 96 fantasy points on 16 touchdowns last season accounted for a whopping 33.3% of his total 288.4 fantasy points. Mixon currently has one touchdown through five weeks, giving us an alarming 80% drop in touchdown rate. For those keeping count, that’s an 80% drop in the department that accounted for 33% of his total points last year. That spells trouble.
Fundamentals
The most glaring deficit in the Bengals’ offense is their front line. Cincinnati should’ve learned that lesson in 2020 when they lost Burrow to a brutal, season-ending, multi-ligament knee injury. They did not learn their lesson, however, and failed to address the problem that offseason. The next year, 2021, Burrow’s 70 sacks were the third-highest mark in NFL history. The front office finally took the hint and acquired veteran offensive line studs Alex Cappa, Ted Karras, and La’el Collins this offseason. On paper, this should be a massive improvement but it has not shown up on the field on Sundays. This is reflected in Mixon’s abysmal 3.15 yards per carry.
There is hope, however. It’s important to remember how crucial cohesiveness is to an offensive line. Strong front lines rely on seamless game-speed communication, trust, and rapport, all of which take time to figure out, and we should’ve expected a slow start from the newly constructed core. If they can learn to work effectively as a unit, the run game will improve. This will force defenses to adjust for the run, which will open up deep shots to the Bengals’ lethal wide receiver duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In turn, that deep threat will clear out defenses underneath for a more effective run game. That’s synergy, baby. The biggest hope is that a more potent offense will lead Mixon to some desperately needed positive TD regression.
What We Can Do
What you decide to do about Joseph Tyler Mixon depends entirely on how you feel about the Bengals’ offense moving forward, specifically the offensive line. If the line doesn’t improve, Mixon is a blaring fog horn of a sell-low candidate as your chance to cash out on name value fades each passing week. But if you believe the offensive line will start to click, Mixon might be a clever target to acquire while fantasy managers understandably panic.
I hope you enjoyed this article. For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter at @FFMadJester. Good luck out there and remember to have fun!
