PAST PRODUCTION:
A.J. Brown broke out in his rookie season with 1,051-yards receiving and eight TDs despite only seeing 84 targets. His 61% catch rate yielded 52 receptions, which accumulated a total of 217 PPR in his rookie season. Brown finished his rookie season as the WR22. He had a success rate of 52% last season, which was the fourth-worst among receivers who got over 80 targets. What does this mean for his dynasty profile?
Brown was uber effective despite not necessarily being efficient with a yards per team pass attempt at 2.34. This was the third-best figure in the NFL among receivers with 80 plus targets, trailing only Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs. Brown’s 2.34-yards per team pass attempt also reflects the best figure among rookie receivers since 2000. He was also the third-best among all receivers since 2000 with under 100 targets. Brown was 11th in the league last season in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement and fourth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
2020 OUTLOOK:
The Titans re-signed quarterback Ryan Tannehill on a four-year deal with three years guaranteed and running back Derrick Henry on a four-year deal with two years guaranteed. A.J. Brown due to his second-round draft capital under contract through the 2022 season. They did lose their starting right tackle Tyler Conklin to free agency and used their first-round draft pick to sure up the position with Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson.
The Titans are forecasted to win 8.5 games in 2020, which is right in line with their four consecutive 9-7 seasons. The Titans are scheduled to face five bottom ten pass efficiency defenses in 2020 versus four top ten defenses. For the 2020 season, A.J. Brown is currently projected as Mike Clay’s WR19. The Titans have the second easiest overall schedule on both sides of the ball. Which means we should expect a heavy dosage of Derrick Henry and not as much Brown as we would like.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS:
The Titans retained Tannehill and Henry as previously noted. However, the biggest impact on A.J. Brown dynasty profile, and may be even more crucial, is they retained offensive coordinator and play-caller Arthur Smith. Smith had incredible production with both Mariota and Tannehill using play-action in 2019. Look for the team to go back to the well in 2020 and beyond.
At 6’0” and 226 lbs. A.J. Brown is nearly indestructible. His only injury history as a professional was day-one of training camp. He suffered a sprained ankle, for which he missed no games. In his collegiate career, he was also a rock, missing only one game in 2017 due to a knee injury after starting the season with 386-yards and four TDs in just two games. The only injury risk to be concerned with Brown is simply contracting COVID-19.
Brown is currently being drafted at the 3.06 in dynasty startups, making him the WR14. An interesting check is to compare a player’s dynasty ADP versus their re-draft ADP. This can sometimes indicate where dynasty players are overvaluing youth. In redraft leagues, Brown is 4.08 which is the WR17. This indicates that Brown is expected to have a strong 2020 season, paired with only being 23 years old makes him a top tier dynasty asset.
Going into the 2019 draft, AJ Brown was my rookie WR1. Brown was the fourth receiver selected in the draft and the Titans were viewed by the consensus as a bad landing spot. Subsequently, Brown fell down rookie draft boards and was available in the later parts of the first round. After becoming the 11th rookie to surpass 1,000-yards receiving since 2000, Brown has cemented his standing as the best wide receiver in the 2019 class.
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