In the first part of this first look at the 2023 running backs, I briefly broke down my top five running backs in the incoming freshman class. Depending on the number of devy prospects owned in your league, there’s a great chance that all five of those backs will be selected in your drafts. This next group of five will likely only be taken in deeper leagues, if at all. Selecting a freshman running back is always a risk, even more so when that running back is a lower-ranked recruit. If you are willing to take on the risk of selecting such a back, this is where the most value could lie in devy leagues. In my devy leagues this off-season, I’m going to throw caution to the wind by targeting this group of running backs, aggressively targeting them on some occasions.
RB6: Jase McClellan, Alabama
Every year, it seems Alabama replenishes their offensive talent by recruiting talented prospects, this year is no different. The four-star running back from Texas joins an immensely talented running back group in Tuscaloosa. With Najee Harris opting to return for his senior season, and Trey Sanders recovered from a foot injury, touches are likely going to be scarce for McClellan. Even when Harris leaves, the crowded Alabama backfield will limit his touches. With very little wear and tear, McClellan will enter the 2023 NFL Draft with a lot of tread left on the tires.
Jase McClellan has little to fill out on his frame to reach feature back size in the NFL. Already at 5’10’’, 200 lbs., McClellan should easily achieve this with help from Alabama’s top tier strength and conditioning program. Posting a 39.6-inch vertical at The Opening, his burst is clear on tape. A one-cut style of runner, McClellan uses his impressive burst to quickly accelerate to the line of scrimmage, exploding through the opening hole. While he is fantastic out of the gate, his long speed is not great. That will need to improve at the next level or SEC defenders will bring him down on long runs. He was not used a lot as a pass catcher, but he has shown to be adequate when asked to do it.
McClellan enters his freshman season as my sixth-ranked running back in the 2023 NFL Draft class. Despite ranking him this high, I would not draft him this year outside of heavily depleted devy leagues. We have seen highly ranked running backs go to Alabama and get lost in the talent around them. I would want to wait a season to ensure that I saw enough flashes before taking a chance on him. Even when Harris leaves, he is going to have to compete with Trey Sanders and whoever else they bring in, providing savvy devy owners the opportunity to find a value. When he inevitably leaves, McClellan has high day-2 upside, making him a fringe first-round prospect in 2023 dynasty rookie drafts.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBOxhtgD2dY[/embedyt]
RB7: Marshawn Lloyd, South Carolina
Marshawn Lloyd enters South Carolina as the most talented running back on the roster, and it is not particularly close. With both Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster leaving for the 2020 NFL Draft, the South Carolina starting running back job is being served to Lloyd on a silver platter. Having the experience of being a three-year starter could go a long way in the development of Lloyd at the next level. I currently project Lloyd to enter the 2023 NFL Draft after three workhorse years at South Carolina.
So far, this class has been blessed with NFL size, or the ability to easily get there. At 5’9’’ and 211 lbs., Lloyd fits right in with everyone else. Lloyd is a strong, powerful runner who finishes his runs. Arm tackles do nothing to him. His tackle-breaking and punishing running style are clear on his highlights. He is more than just power. He possesses quick feet, allowing him to change directions flawlessly. His vision and patience are other positive aspects to his game; he is a good processor at and behind the line scrimmage.
Despite being ranked lower than McClellan, I would likely take Lloyd over him in a devy draft. His immediate path to usage, thus production, will give him greater short-term value. I like Lloyd and his potential at the next level, but he is likely going to be a sell-high candidate at this point next year based on perceived value.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LejWykC8qQw[/embedyt]
RB8: Roydell Williams, Alabama
Living up to the standard of Alabama, McClellan was not the only talented running back recruit joining the Crimson Tide. Williams, much like McClellan, will struggle to find opportunities early, and maybe later too. When projecting Williams to the next level, we will have to rely on traits and abilities rather than production.
Williams is the best receiving back covered thus far. With good catching technique and soft hands, Williams projects to have a role in the receiving game in college and at the NFL. He transitions from a receiver to a runner smoothly, a highly important trait for running backs. Williams possesses good vision and cutting ability, allowing him to constantly find and get through holes. At 5’10’’ and 202 lbs., Williams has excellent contact balance, using his strong lower body to drive through tackles. His short-area quickness and long speed are both areas that could be improved upon in Alabama’s strength and conditioning program.
Projecting the draft capital of Alabama running backs is difficult, especially this far into the future. I think he has the talent to be a day-two pick, but he may not get to showcase it until his junior season. I would not take a chance on him in devy leagues this year; he is going to be buried on the depth chart. The little of him that we see likely will not change his value enough to make devy owners regret passing on him.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu8SZ47LmHY[/embedyt]
RB9: Chris Tyree, Notre Dame
Chris Tyree is walking into a running back group devoid of talent. Senior Tony Jones Jr. graduated, leaving the top returning running back C’Bo Flemister, who ran for just 162 yards on 48 carries last year. Tyree should quickly earn himself a large role in this off-season. It will not surprise me if Tyree starts Week 1 for Notre Dame.
At 5’10″ and just 179 lbs., there are obvious questions about his frame and ability to carry the load. Even with the help of a good college program, I do not see Tyree growing into prototypical running back weight. Tyree makes up for his lack of size with incredible athleticism. He has verified testing results of a 4.38-sec. 40-yard dash, 38.2″ vertical, and 3.95-sec. shuttle. He also won the “fastest player” competition at The Opening. Despite having a smaller frame, he bounces off tacklers. His impressive vision and processing allow him to quickly diagnose and solve the problems he faces. Tyree is shifty in the second level; constantly making defenders miss with quick cuts. His mental abilities mixed with his elite athleticism make him a big play waiting to happen.
Although he will not be a feature back in the NFL, Tyree should have a good role in a committee. He projects as a change-of-pace option and pass catcher. That type of role still has a lot of value in dynasty leagues. His unique skill set and athleticism give him day 2 upside when he inevitably leaves for the NFL Draft. Due to his projected usage year one, I have no problems with taking a chance on him in deeper devy leagues.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OV6xAxNSb0[/embedyt]
RB10: Daniyel Ngata, Arizona State
Eno Benjamin leaving Arizona State leaves a massive hole for the Sun Devils to fill. The returning running backs have less than 200 rushing yards combined. The opportunity to become the starting running back, and next workhorse, is there for Ngata’s taking. I do not suspect it is going to take too long for that to happen.
Similarly to Tyree, the 5’9’’ and 180 lbs. running back does not possess prototypical feature back size. While he lacks size, his contact balance and ability to shrug off defenders is impressive. He is a good processor, scanning the line of scrimmage for the opening holes. When he gets through a hole, his burst and ability to get upfield are on display. Shifty and electric in the open field, Nagata is a big play waiting to happen. Ngata’s receiving skills are exceptional. He can run crisp routes out of the backfield or from the slot.
Ngata likely will not develop the size necessary to carry the full load, but his skill set and athleticism should earn him a role in the NFL. He profiles as a change-of-pace option and pass-catching specialist at the next level. His versatility gives him day 2 upside when he declares for the NFL Draft. I would not draft him in devy leagues, but it is a name that I am watching closely.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhW3IBK9J1U[/embedyt]
What incoming freshman are you most excited about? Let me know on Twitter at @DFF_Steven.
