After the NFL Draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
The 49ers returned Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., and JaMycal Hasty. In free agency, they added Wayne Gallman after he was released by the Giants. Then, in the draft, the 49ers selected Trey Sermon in the third round and Elijah Mitchell in the sixth. I expect the depth chart to look something like this:
- Raheem Mostert
- Trey Sermon
- Jeff Wilson Jr.
- Wayne Gallman
- Elijah Mitchell (Practice Squad)
Lead Back or Committee?
The 49ers are a committee. There may not be a single guy to count on week in and week out.
The 49ers have seen multiple RBs have success in their system. In the last two seasons, the 49ers have seen five different backs finish inside the top 24 in any given week: Raheem Mostert (9), Jeff Wilson Jr. (6), Jerick McKinnon (6), Tevin Coleman (5), and Matt Breida (2). While JaMycal Hasty failed to finish inside the top 24, he had RB29 and RB25 performances in 2020. So what does all this mean? In 32 possible weeks, the 49ers have supplied a top 24 option 28 times. The 49ers have a system that works for running backs.
The problem with the 49ers backfield has been that it isn’t always clear where the work is going to go. While certain weeks have seen a player fall into opportunity because of the injuries surrounding them, that isn’t always the case. Over those two years, a running back had 15 or more carries in a game only 14 times, and only five times did a back see five for more targets. Basically, no one is getting volume unless people are missing.
Who Do I Roster?
If possible, roster all of them. Realistically though, that probably isn’t possible, and clogging your roster with three to four backs you don’t plan on using unless there are injuries isn’t advisable.
At this point, I wouldn’t trade much for Mostert. He’s 29 and didn’t look great in the back half of the season. In 2020 he suffered an MCL sprain and two high ankle sprains. The first landed him on IR for four weeks, the second ended his season. With age comes slower recovery, so if he continues to get banged up, as San Francisco’s backs have been wont to do, you could see him clogging your bench as you await a return.
If I have to take one guy, it’s going to be Trey Sermon. While he can be underwhelming, third-round draft capital makes him statistically relevant for fantasy. If you’re in a startup though, I think his value might be a little more forgiving. Chances are he’s going to be overhyped and will go early in the 2nd round (or earlier) in rookie drafts. Outside of Mostert, a 29-year-old running back, there isn’t money being thrown at anyone. With the 49ers drafting Sermon somewhat early and with no heavy ties to anyone in the future, I think he provides a decent option.
If you don’t want to reach and have the roster space, Willson and Gallman (or whoever makes the final roster), should be rostered and can be dropped into a lineup whenever someone gets banged up. Both of them have provided great weeks as waiver wire players in the past, so nothing should be surprising there.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
