In this article, I will be dissecting the current top twelve dynasty wide receivers, based on ADP provided by Rotoviz.com. To do this I have compiled a list of these WRs, their base stats, calculated their advanced stats that I think are important, and turned it all into an easily digestible chart. There are a few things you will need to know before we look at the chart so let’s talk about those.
I would like to define each stat that will be in the chart. The first two are games and age which are just the number of games played and the current (April 2021) age of the player. The next two are target share and receiving yards share. These are the percent of targets and team receiving yards that each player received. The next stat is yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA); this is just the player’s receiving yards divided by the number of team pass attempts. This is useful because it helps to illustrate not only how often their team tried to get the player the ball but also how effective they were with the ball when they got it. The following two columns are fantasy points per pass attempt (FP/PA), and fantasy points per game (FP/G). Lastly, we have each player’s bust and boom rates. These percentages are how often each player had a game that resulted in either less than ten PPR points or more than 20 PPR points. We want our stud wide receivers to not lose us weeks by underperforming. We also want our guy to be able to carry the team occasionally.
All stats are pulled from games played over the last three seasons, minus games the player left early due to injury. Keep in mind for some of these players it is only their rookie season stats, or rookie stats are included. While for others, there were no rookie seasons over the last three years. Unfortunately, there is no way to know what stats guys like Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb will have in the future, so we need to make do with what we have. Now that we know what every part of the chart is, let’s dive into it.
Above I have listed the WRs in terms of their 2021 startup ADP, as provided by RotoViz.com. Their stats are labeled with a color depending on where they rank among these 12 elite wide receivers. Green is top-five, dark is better than light. Orange is six through nine, lighter being better than darker. And red is the bottom three, lighter again being better than darker. So, we want our players to have a lot of green, not much red, and orange is about average.
At first glance, we can see just how dominant Davante Adams has been and why he’s drafted as the first vet in dynasty right now. We also notice that CeeDee Lamb and D.J. Moore have a good amount of red, this will be talked about later. Now let’s just get into each player, my thoughts on them, and if I feel their ADP is a good value or not.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
I went into this project already not liking D.K. Metcalf’s current ADP, I have him ranked as WR12 at the time of writing this. Now after seeing how he stacks up, I am very confident in the ranking I had. Yes, he is young, but that is all he has going for him when comparing him with these other top guys. When looking at his stats he does not fall into the green tier for any of them, and he is red in some of the more important categories like boom rate and FP/G.
The low boom rate was surprising to me because I always thought of D.K. Metcalf as this high volatility, high upside WR. When in actuality he is busting at a 10% higher rate than he is booming. He’s also doing this with Russell Wilson at QB and only Tyler Lockett as competition for targets. These numbers are NOT deserving of being the top dynasty WR in startup ADP.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Justin Jefferson exploded onto the scene in 2020. He broke the rookie receiving yards record and vaulted himself into the conversation as a top-three dynasty WR. Let’s quickly compare him to D.K. Metcalf just to see how crazy it is that he is drafted over Justin Jefferson. Justin Jefferson hits four green tiers (not including age) to Metcalf’s zero. In the other three stats that he does not achieve green, he is still ahead of D.K. in two of them!
Including age, Justin Jefferson beats D.K. Metcalf in every single category except for bust rate. That is with Justin Jefferson only having his rookie season on record, and in his first two career games in the NFL, he scored 4.6 and 7.4 points. The fact that Justin Jefferson ranks in the top five of target share, yards share, Y/TPA, and FP/PA as a rookie makes him 100% deserving of a top-five WR ADP. Number two may still be just a tad high but we will get to my rankings later.
Davante Adams (WR – GB)
Davante Adams is the first true vet we have encountered on this list, and let me just say his numbers are mind-boggling. Even when only comparing him to the top-12 assets at his positions he still shines. He ranks first in six different categories; target share, TD share, FP/PA, FP/G, bust rate, and boom rate. Davante Adams’ boom rate is actually off the charts, he scored 20 or more PPR points in 55% percent of his games, and only scored less than 10 in 7.5% of them. Wow. In the two categories that he is not first, he still ranks in the top five. All greens across the board except for age. However, he is still only 28 and will be 28 and a half when the season starts. I expect easily two to three more years of truly elite-level production from Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.
I know in dynasty people love age but sometimes it gets overvalued. If Davante Adams can continue to produce at these levels for even just two more years and then give two more years of 70-80% of this, he might just outscore a guy like Justin Jefferson every single year. Adams is firmly in my top three dynasty WRs.
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Cheetah: the fastest player on and off the field. Tied to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ hyper-productive offense for the foreseeable future. Hill ranks in the top five in five of the eight metrics and falls in the orange tier for the other three. His best attributes are his bust rate and boom rate which was unexpected to me. I knew in 2020 that Hill had really upped his consistency and removed busts almost completely from his game.
He only had five bust games in the last seasons while racking up 19 boom games. Tyreek Hill is a consistent threat to score but is also used all over the field and utilizes the full route tree. He is a dominant dynasty WR and he will be for the next four to five years.
A.J. Brown (WR – TEN)
A.J. Brown: what an electric and dominant young WR. Brown ranks in the top five in boom rate, Y/TPA, and TD share. Nothing scores points quite like TDs do in our game. These TDs are what give him his elite boom rate, but they also work as a double-edged sword as they are what cause him to have the third-highest bust rate. In the games that he is not scoring those TDs, he usually is not getting enough volume to hit that coveted 10-point mark. This is mainly because the Titans have a run-heavy offense and just do not pass much.
This offseason they shipped off Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith which vacates a lot of targets for A.J. Brown to scoop up. Projecting forward here I could see Brown reach 130 targets in 2021. He is a young stud and is rightfully drafted in the top five WRs.
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
Stefon Diggs was blessed with Josh Allen in 2020 and boy, was it a magical connection. Diggs was already an efficient asset in Minnesota but separating from Adam Thielen and becoming the true alpha in Buffalo did wonders for his game. Stefon ranks in the top five in target share, FP/G, and bust rate. Not only does he offer a consistent floor but he is also scoring a healthy amount of points in each game. Still a 27-year-old and paired up with a great QB in Josh Allen, I love that Stefon Diggs has cemented his spot in the top 12.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
CeeDee Lamb is the first case on this list that we need to add a lot of context to his stats. He falls in the bottom three in every single category except for bust rate, which he ranks eighth in. This is a promising sign. He showed that he could deal with not only a rotating QB room, but also Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup as competition for targets, all while still being a consistent fantasy asset. If we just look at his games with Dak Prescott (which were also the first four games of his career in the NFL).
You will see the potential we are dealing with. He scored 10.9, 17.5, 11.6, and 25.2. Not one bust, and even had a boom game. CeeDee Lamb belongs on this list because he is young, plays in maybe the most fantasy productive passing offense in the league, and showed elite potential, as an early rookie who had no offseason, when Dak Prescott was at QB (again, while also competing with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup). CeeDee Lamb is a young stud and he has a solid ADP.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI)
DeAndre Hopkins was sent to Arizona in 2020 and he did not miss a beat. Over the last three seasons, among these guys, Hopkins ranks in the top three in every category and fifth in TD Share. So, he is a locked and loaded stud. But, we knew this already. The issue is his age. He’s the oldest of this group and will be 29 by the start of the season. This can be worrisome for dynasty owners. However, I am not batting an eye. He is right with Davante Adams in terms of easily having three to four more years of elite top-10 play. Plus, being paired with Kyler Murray in one of the fastest-paced passing offenses does not hurt either. Hopkins belongs on this list.
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Calvin Ridley surprised me here. His only green stat is TD share in which he ranks fifth, and everything else is either orange or red. While this is influenced by his rookie season, so are A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, and Justin Jefferson (who has only his rookie season), but they all look better than Ridley here.
Ridley is also in a pass-heavy offense with a bad defense, while the previously mentioned players are on teams that run the ball a lot and play good defense. Calvin Ridley’s saving grace is that he does not need to be as efficient as these other guys to score a lot of fantasy points due to his team’s increased passing volume. So, him being towards the bottom of this top 12 makes sense to me.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
What a roller coaster Michael Thomas has been on. Last offseason he was the dynasty WR one and now he is almost slipping out of the top 12. Michael Thomas’s numbers are fantastic. He reaches green in every single metric besides TD share, but he gets so much volume that he does not need the TDs. He is very consistent and explosive as shown by his high boom rate and low bust rate. Michael Thomas does most of his damage between the 20s as shown by his first ranked yards share and Y/TPA stats. The fact that he is down at 10 in ADP and even under Ridley is upsetting. His profile rivals Adams and he’s even younger.
The biggest knocks on Michael Thomas have to be that he missed 10 games in 2020 and Drew Brees retiring. Except that he will be healthy in 2021, did not miss a game in 2019 or 2018, and that his splits are just fine without Drew Brees on the field. Michael Thomas should be higher in dynasty ADP.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WFT)
“Scary Terry” as they call him. Well, I can tell you one thing, there is not anything scary about his stats; they are beautiful. While playing with the likes of Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, and Kyle Allen at QB, Terry McLaurin managed to not drop into the red for any of his stats while also hitting the top five in yards share and TD share. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be a great upgrade to many of his previous QBs and I am sure the Washington Football Team are doing all that they can to find their next franchise guy. For now, draft Terry McLaurin at or slightly above his ADP and feel great about it.
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
Lastly, we have what I thought to be one of the more underappreciated assets in dynasty. But as it turns out, I think his rating is pretty appropriate. Moore scores in the red in every single category except for yards share, in which he ranks ninth, one spot above the red tier. Now while D.J. Moore has had below-average QB play in a declining Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Teddy Bridgewater, I don’t see that as an excuse here. Terry McLaurin was able to overcome worse QB play on a worse offense and these players are somehow drafted next to each other. D.J. Moore does not belong in the top 12 dynasty wide receivers.
My Top 12 WRs for Dynasty
Tyreek Hill
A.J. Brown
Davante Adams
Justin Jefferson
DeAndre Hopkins
Stefon Diggs
CeeDee Lamb
Michael Thomas
Terry McLaurin
Calvin Ridley
D.K. Metcalf
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
