There has been a meteoric rise in the number of dynasty leagues that are either starting up as Superflex leagues or transitioning to Superflex leagues, it is the way to go. Now there will always be a nostalgic place for one quarterback leagues for fantasy football players, but devaluing the most important position in football, arguably in all of sports does not hold much value anymore.
Using DLF’s trade finder tool we will look at the market value of some of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Patrick Mahomes:
Lamar Jackson:
Josh Allen:
Deshaun Watson:
As you can see, to trade for a player like Mahomes, you need to give up a very good quarterback along with first-round picks and other top-tier dynasty assets. For a player of Lamar Jackson’s caliber, you would need to give up a top tier quarterback, first-round draft picks, or another top ten dynasty asset. For an ascending value like Josh Allen, you must pay a top-end quarterback plus picks. Finally for a player of Deshaun Watson’s caliber you are seeing a lesser tier quarterback along with first-round draft picks. Needless to say, acquiring a quarterback in Superflex leagues normally requires that you must give up a quarterback in return.
Thus, the lowest investment that you can make to acquire a quarterback is by way of offseason rookie drafts. This makes it incredibly important to hit at the position with those picks. A team that may have used an early pick on a 1st overall quarterback like JaMarcus Russell or David Carr is setting their team back multiple years when it comes to building a championship-caliber roster.
The 2021 quarterback class includes Trevor Lawrence, who teams have been fawning over since he was a 16-year old. It also includes Justin Fields, who has been the clear second option behind Lawrence, although at times, arguably the better option. The 2021 quarterback class is also very deep, with six prospects potentially earning first-round draft capital. For players like Mac Jones and Kyle Trask, being selected in the first-round dramatically increases their outlook for fantasy football.
Historically, quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft have a hit rate of 59.2% when it comes to fantasy football success.
Quarterback Hit Rate
For this exercise, I determined success to equate to averaging over 100 fantasy points per season in the league and used records dating back to the 1980 draft class. I used this time range to smooth out the success rates over a very long period, but most importantly to include historically great quarterback draft classes like 1983, 1998, 2004, 2012, and 2018. I then did some manual smoothing to allow for players who did not quite hit the threshold but had experienced success. Players like Jimmy Garappolo, Robert Griffin III, and Matt Schaub were starting quarterbacks for many years, and in RGIII’s case, had championship-winning upside despite an injury-shortened career.
First Round Quarterbacks
Since 1980, there have been a total of 98 quarterbacks drafted in the first round. On average, that puts the number of first-round quarterbacks selected at 2.39, though drafting quarterbacks with first-round picks has become more commonplace. Since 2010 that average is up to 3.09 first-round quarterbacks. As I previously stated, it is within the range of outcomes that six quarterbacks go in the first-round this Spring, which would match the highest amount ever dating back to the 1983 draft. This draft included Hall of Famers like John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and Ken O’Brien. The rest of that first-round was rounded out with Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason.
Historically speaking, first-round quarterbacks have a hit rate of 59.2%. Receding to the second-round drops the rate tremendously to 29.3%. The drop becomes precipitous with just a 14.6% hit rate in the third-round. This makes it crucial for prospects like Mac Jones and Kyle Trask who are the fringe first-round selections, to be selected in the opening round. However, being a second-round quarterback does not doom them to fail, as we recognize Drew Brees and Brett Favre, among others, who succeeded with second-round capital, but clearly, there is a diminishing return.
Trevor Lawrence
Though some people believe that the hiring of Urban Meyer as the Jacksonville Head Coach will lead to the Jaguars surprising everyone and selecting Justin Fields first overall, the pick will ultimately be Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has been labeled as a generational talent and compared favorably to the likes of John Elway and Peyton Manning. Once he is selected with the first-overall pick, he will fall into a cohort that has an amazing hit rate of 79% or 22 out of 28. With the Jaguars making the move to Meyer it is more likely than not that Lawrence will be a fantasy football success story and further increase the hit rate of first-pick quarterbacks.
The 1.02
While for much of the past two years Justin Fields was presumably the second overall pick, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson has put together a very impressive resume and will challenge Fields for the spot. Many reputable sources like PFF and The Athletic are now mocking Wilson to the Jets with the second pick over Fields. The second pick historically has a 63% success rate, or five of the eight quarterbacks drafted there have been successful in fantasy football. I do believe that the Jets will either draft Justin Fields or choose to stick with former third-overall pick Sam Darnold. Doing so allows them to either pick a complementary piece or trade back in the draft to acquire more value.
Justin Fields
Whether the Jets are the ones to make the pick or a team trades up, I believe that Justin Fields will be the selection. Historically, the second pick has hit more than it has missed. Many may make the comparison to Ryan Leaf and similarities with the Trevor Lawrence to Peyton Manning comparison. However, I believe the top two more closely compare to 2012 with Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Both Luck and Griffin held immense fantasy value, but unfortunately, both had shortened careers. I believe Fields compares to a healthy version of Robert Griffin III if he joins the second pick cohort. Fields offers top tier rushing production from the quarterback position, which will increase his value in fantasy football even if he has an extended development as an NFL quarterback.
Zach Wilson
The Dolphins hold the third-pick in the draft by way of the Laremy Tunsil trade with the Texans. Because the Dolphins already have Tua Tagovailoa, it is unlikely they will make a change at quarterback, aside from a Deshaun Watson trade. Therefore, Wilson would likely fall between the fourth and tenth pick. Historically, Wilson would be in a much better position to succeed if he is selected in the top-five. The top-five holds a 75% hit rate, versus a hit rate that drops to 28% for quarterbacks selected between the sixth and tenth picks. Again, this is not to say Wilson is not likely to be a valuable fantasy asset if picked sixth to tenth, just favorable historical trends tell otherwise.
Trey Lance
Many believe the redshirt sophomore from North Dakota State to be a more raw prospect in need of a redshirt rookie year. Because of this, his range of outcomes have a lot more variance, however, Hall of Fame Cowboys VP of player personnel Gil Brandt believes strongly that Lance will be a top-15 draft pick. If proven true, Lance would find himself in a top-15 cohort that has a 60% hit rate. Lance, like Fields, presents major rushing upside from the quarterback position. This will allow fantasy owners to start the young quarterback with a bit more ease while he develops as a passer.
Mac Jones
After leading the Crimson Tide to a National Championship in his lone year as the starting quarterback, the Alabama prospect has declared for the 2021 NFL Draft. Some believed that due to his lack of experience he would benefit from another season at Alabama. However, his declaration conveys that Saban had shared first-round interest in Jones. There are many teams towards the end of the draft, including the Steelers, Patriots, Saints, Colts, Bears, and Football Team, and all are realistic landing spots. A first-round QB, as aforementioned, has a 59.2% success rate, which bodes well for Jones’s fantasy outlook. This outlook would be more promising if he goes to a team with a strong infrastructure and offensive weapons like the Steelers, Saints, or Colts.
Kyle Trask
Trask is the final quarterback prospect who could theoretically land first-round draft capital. A lot of this will be riding on his performance at the Senior Bowl on January 30. Trask is the only senior in this grouping which makes it less likely for him to be coming out based on his early draft grades. Because of the lack of options after Trask, it is extremely unlikely that he would fall past the second round. Recalling the first-round success rate, landing with the Saints or the Steelers as a first-round selection would be a major increase to Trask’s outlook. If he is not picked in the first round on April 29th his hit rate will drop to 29% while simultaneously the teams picking early in the second-round are even worse for Trask’s fantasy outlook. More than any other player this draft, Trask’s fantasy outlook is depending on what happens in the first round.
Looking Forward
This was a very enjoyable exercise for me to run as I hope it was enjoyable for you to read. After the draft, I will re-examine the selections and put these players into the correct cohorts to repeat this exercise.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
