Football is back! What an absolutely wonderful thing to witness. Week one was great for Zach’s Packers and horrible for my Lions. Not only that, but I lost a bet to my co-author and I now have to drink a cocktail of his own invention. Check back next week to see if I throw up while drinking a room temperature mixture of Jager and orange soda with *checks notes* cracked pepper on the rim. But we’re not here to talk about that, we’re here to discuss some fantasy buys and sells. Week 1 is not the time to overreact, but there are some clear buy-low opportunities and some players you should try to get away from. Let’s take a look.
Will’s Buy: DJ Chark
This one is about the targets. If you can convince the Chark owner that those three targets are indicative of future use, you could get a steal. Gardner Minshew only threw the ball 20 times in this game and no Jaguar had more than five targets. Chark still gets a TD in this game, so the buy-low opportunity is not as sweet as it might have been. Jacksonville gets the Titans next week. Tennessee shut down the Broncos WRs in week one, so keep an eye on Chark against the Titans. It’s possible this buying window lasts for another week and then slams shut when Chark faces Miami in week three.
Zach’s Buy: Anthony Miller
If you read my dynasty profile piece on Anthony Miller you’d know that I was very high on him going into the season. The same sentiment holds true for redraft. Miller is the often-overlooked second fiddle to Allen Robinson in Chicago. He has all the tools to become an elite receiver in the NFL but hasn’t quite put together elite numbers through his first two seasons. For fantasy purposes, there hasn’t been an elite WR2 in Chicago since they had the great duo of Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall as their top wideouts. While Allen Robinson is clearly the WR1, I think we could see a breakout campaign from Miller this year. The main concern with Miller is that I don’t trust Mitch Trubisky much as their quarterback, but I do trust the talent of Anthony Miller to shine through this season. In week 1 he put together a nice line of 4 catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown on 6 targets. He has already brought in half of his touchdown total from 2019 through one week in 2020. If healthy, Miller will unquestionably best his 2019 campaign and should serve as a very solid flex option for the 2020 season. Buy him while his price remains relatively low. It could skyrocket if the rumors about Allen Robinson wanting out are true.
Will’s Sell: Nick Chubb
I know it was against the Ravens, but boy did the Browns look terrible. If the Browns are going to be this bad, it’s going to be tough sledding for Chubb. Chubb is so talented, which is why managers have to be disappointed in his week one usage. In the first quarter, while Cleveland kept things relatively close, Chubb had four carries to Hunt’s two. Both had one target, but Hunt got the lone goal-line carry. Once the Ravens started pulling away in the second, Chubb had only six carries and zero targets. Hunt had eleven carries and five targets in that same span. Again, this was against the Ravens and week one overreactions are a trap. However, this backfield split worries me. Chubb was probably drafted in the second round of your draft. If you can get that kind of value, I’d move on.
Zach’s Sell: James Conner
If you have James Conner on your team, I’m sorry. Of course, the talent is there. However, Conner cannot seem to stay on the field. Through his first three seasons in the NFL, he played in 14, 13, and 10 games, respectively. We have seen in week 1 that the Steelers have other backfield options that are very serviceable, like Benny Snell. On a team like Pittsburgh, the next man up often can be just as successful as the workhorse. I still believe that if Conner is healthy, he remains the go-to running back for Pittsburgh. But, I worry that at some point this season he will get injured again and/or will lose the job outright to Benny Snell. When he was in the game he netted 17 yards on 8 touches, yuck. Meanwhile, Snell had 113 yards on 19 carries. He may be tough to sell, but I would be dangling James Conner in trade talks throughout this week to anyone that needs running back help. Conner is not the type of player I want rostered in my redraft leagues; the week-to-week headache is not worth the trouble.
Will’s Buy: Joshua Kelley
The Chargers’ rookie running back seems to have cemented the Melvin Gordon-lite role already. This team wants to run the ball and run the ball and then run the ball some more. Austin Ekeler had 19 carries, but Kelley was second on the team with 12. What’s more, Kelley had three of the four carries inside the ten-yard line and got into the end zone. LA clearly likes him as the Ekeler complement, now more than ever with Justin Jackson dealing with a small injury. Kelley might be on waivers as of now, so put out a claim on him if you can. If he’s owned, I still think he’s worth moving for. Kelley was being drafted in the last few rounds but he’s a flex play going forward.
Zach’s Sell: Sammy Watkins
We’ve seen this before. Rewind to 2019 when Sammy Watkins went off to the tune of 98 yards and 3 touchdowns on 9 catches. The rest of the season he accumulated 475 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns. Watkins has not had 700 receiving yards in a season since his second year in the league in 2015. To start off 2020, Watkins showed out with 7 catches, 82 yards, and a touchdown. He led the team in receptions and targets. This is not likely to continue. He is most likely going to be the fourth pass-catching option on this team behind Hill, Kelce, and CEH. One could argue that by mid-season he could be fifth after Hardman as well. If there are owners that have some injury issues at receiver or are a prisoner of the moment, look to deal Sammy Watkins before week two so you can fully capitalize on what could be his best game of the season.
Come for the weekly redraft buys and sells, stay for the dastardly concoctions @DFF_Ztrain can make @Dynastywalrus drink throughout the season as they play weekly head-to-head matchups!
