I get the same email every year. It usually comes in the first couple of days in September. It’s from a friend who I used to work with. This person is extremely competitive; the kind of person who hates losing more than loves winning. The email is a call for help. My friend knows almost nothing about fantasy football, but wants to crush the people in the fantasy league she was invited to a few years back. I love writing the reply because it allows me to finalize my draft strategy after months of mock drafts and research. This year, I’m happy to make that strategy public. Here it is… the guide!
Round 1 – Best Running Back Available
This is not the year to mess around with a first-round wide receiver. Running back gets real ugly real fast, and with Leonard Fournette being cut and Alvin Kamara potentially holding out, options are still dwindling. I’m willing to bet the Saints sign Kamara, but feel free to avoid him if you’re risk-averse. Ideally, you got yourself a top-three pick and can lock up Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Ezekiel Elliott. If you miss out on one of those guys, don’t freak out. There’s still plenty of solid running backs, albeit with more question marks than the top three. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders are all options. I know that Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are tempting in round one. They’re incredibly safe choices, but wide receiver is crazy deep this year. I’m taking any of the running backs listed above (yes, even Kamara) over Thomas and Adams.
Round 2 – Another Running Back or a Former First-Round Receiver
If you have a chance to get one of the running backs I discussed earlier, do it. If any of Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake, or Joe Mixon is sitting there, grab one of them. That’s 14 running backs who I feel are relatively secure. If those options are gone, pivot to wide receiver. There’s a number of pass-catchers who have gone in the first round in previous years’ drafts. Julio Jones is one of the safest bets to finish top-five at the position. Tyreek Hill is tied to Patrick Mahomes and the best offense in the NFL. Despite changing teams, I’m all in on DeAndre Hopkins this year. If you’re picking later in the second, you can’t go wrong with Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, or an elite tight end.
Round 3 – Wide Receiver… Unless You Need a Second RB
I can’t stress this enough – do not leave the first three rounds without two running backs. If you took a star WR or TE in round two, look for Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, or James Conner in the third. Gurley’s looking at a 15-touch-per-game floor in a Falcons offense that will score plenty of points. Carson has over 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons and will be the top guy in Seattle. Conner is one injury-plagued season removed from finishing as the RB6. All three of these running backs have question marks, but those question marks get even bigger when it comes to the backs who will be available in rounds four and five. If you started the draft with two RBs, receiver should be your focus here. Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham are all going in this range. Yes, please! One of the reasons why starting off RB-RB is so appealing is the dearth of WR talent in rounds three and four.
Rounds 4 & 5 – More WRs
While there are some interesting running backs in this range, such as Jonathan Taylor and a seemingly healthy David Johnson, I’m going heavy at wide receiver. The running backs here are more appealing as flex options. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods both have fourth-round price tags as of now. Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton are going in the fourth as well, and both could make the leap to WR1 territory. Round five has some intriguing options at quarterback. Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson all have fifth-round ADP. Taking a quarterback late is always smart, so wait on the position and grab Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, DJ Chark, Terry McLaurin, or DeVante Parker. Metcalf and McLaurin should improve on their impressive rookie seasons. Parker, Lockett, and Chark were WRs 11, 13, and 16, respectively, in PPR last season. Now you can get them as your flex? Sign me up!
Rounds 6 & 7 – One RB, One WR
Rookies D’Andre Swift and Cam Akers are both interesting options who are currently going in the sixth round. You may have to have patience with both, but you can keep them on your bench early in standard leagues if you’ve hammered RB and WR up to this point. Kareem Hunt is also going in this range and proved that he was flex-worthy last season even while sharing the Cleveland backfield with Nick Chubb. Wide receiver is a great option in the sixth, as well. You can take whichever Bengals wideout you like more. I prefer Tyler Boyd, but A.J. Green could bounce back this season. Green was WR17 in 2011 when he and Andy Dalton were both rookies. What could a healthy Green do with Joe Burrow? The sixth round also has my favorite breakout candidate this year… Marquise Brown. He’s bulked up, he’s tied to Lamar Jackson, and he scored 7 TDs in his rookie season.
Round seven has two Patriots I love at their prices. James White is always undervalued, and Julian Edelman was WR7 in PPR last year. Yes, they lost Tom Brady, but Cam Newton will make sure they both return value here. Another guy I love in this range is Michael Gallup. You’re going to want a piece of the Cowboys offense this season. Gallup already proved he can perform alongside the other options in Dallas, so the addition of CeeDee Lamb doesn’t scare me. Ronald Jones, Will Fuller, and Brandin Cooks are exciting lottery tickets here if you are looking for upside.
Rounds 8-10 – QB, TE, and Upside
Now’s the time to fill out that starting lineup. I actually like the late options at tight end this year. It’s the first time I’ve felt that way in years. Austin Hooper and Hayden Hurst are two of my favorite targets, and they both have tenth-round price tags. Aaron Rodgers is going in the eighth, Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford are going in the ninth. Those are great values. If you miss out on QB in this range, don’t worry. The position is crazy deep and there’s one streamer I’ve got my eye on late (keep reading).
Both Miami running backs are going in the eighth-round. Jordan Howard will see volume this year, and Matt Breida is intriguing in any sort of PPR setup. The hate on Kerryon Johnson and Marlon Mack has gone too far at this point. Both should start the season handling early-down work, and there’s a non-zero chance that they keep their jobs. In the eighth or ninth round, that kind of upside is exactly what you want. Jamison Crowder isn’t a sexy pick by any means, but he’ll be absolutely peppered with targets. Diontae Johnson could end up being the Steelers WR you want this year. Same thing with Sterling Shepard. You can get both in this range.
Late Rounds Targets
If you plan on streaming the QB position, there’s no better early-season bet than Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G threw for eight TDs and over 700 yards in his two games against the Arizona Cardinals last year. I’ll give you one guess who the 49ers play in week one. He also gets to go against the Giants in week three and the Dolphins in week five. I find it hard to believe he won’t be a top ten QB over the first month. He’s being drafted as QB20 in the 13th round. Mecole Hardman and Anthony Miller are two breakout candidates who should be targeted late. Miller showed signs late last year, and now only has Allen Robinson to compete with for targets. Hardman scored six TDs on only 41 targets. That rate is unsustainable, but Patrick Mahomes has 50+ TD potential. If Hardman takes a step forward, he could be in for a big year.
If you’re still playing with DSTs and kickers, they need to be your last two picks. See if your league mates are up to replacing those spots with another wide receiver or flex. Those changes benefit smart fantasy players. If you’re reading this… that’s you.
I hope this guide helps. I’d love to hear from any of you who use it to dominate your drafts. Hit me up on twitter @DynastyWalrus with any questions or comments. Happy drafting!
