Past Production
The former fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft has been a disappointment to dynasty owners across the globe and 2019 wasn’t any different. As a matter of fact, 2019 was his least productive year given the number of games he played. But, it wasn’t his worst. Last year was actually his most efficient year in many aspects. Davis finished with 43 catches for 601 yards and two touchdowns. But, the simple stat line doesn’t tell the entire story.
Corey Davis has been underwhelming his first three years in the league but he has improved each year. His yards per target (8.7), yards per reception (14), and catch rate (62.3%) have increased each season. His catch rate has increased a full 10% since his rookie year (2017). Even his yards after the catch per reception (5.6%) and the average depth of target (11.5) has increased since 2018.
2020 Outlook
Davis can improve as much as he wants, but it won’t make a difference if the passing volume isn’t there. The Titans have finished 31st in pass attempts the last two seasons, largely due to a highly efficient running attack lead by Derrick Henry. He’s also taken a backseat to A.J. Brown, who demonstrated all season long why he’s the more talented receiver. Davis received 113 targets in 2018 prior to A.J. Brown’s arrival. But, now that those days are in the rearview he’s quickly drifting towards fantasy irrelevance.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume there’s an increase in passing attempts in Tennesee (there won’t be) and Davis sees, say, 85-90 targets. He’d still be hard-pressed to crack the top 60 at his position!
If Davis could find his way to 100+ targets again then maybe he’d be a viable fantasy option. There’s certainly a chance for more passing work with Ryan Tannehill at the helm from day one in 2020, but you’d be betting against good odds.
Dynasty Analysis
Davis is in the last year of his rookie deal which further illustrates the uncertainty surrounding him from a dynasty perspective. This will likely be his final season in Tennessee short of a miracle fifth-year breakout in this run-heavy offense. The only hope at this point is he ends up on a pass-heavy team next season that can help revitalize his career. I’m likely holding Davis if he’s currently on my roster because the return on investment frankly wouldn’t be enough, especially if I selected him high in a rookie draft.
If you were even pondering the idea of drafting him, maybe first consider his current ADP of 179. While he’s clearly being taken later in drafts, there are plenty of other options I’d prefer in that range such as Irv Smith Jr. or even Anthony Miller.
It’s truly concerning that A.J. Brown was able to outperform Davis in year one the way he did. In the end, the deadly mixture of low volume and low production may prove to be too much for the young wide receiver to overcome.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
