PAST PRODUCTION
The Seattle Seahawks drafted Chris Carson with the 249th pick in the 2017 NFL draft. Carson had a turbulent route to become the starting running back on one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams. After committing to Georgia his senior year, Carson tore his ACL. This led to two years of JUCO before transferring to Oklahoma State. This ultimately led to him falling to the seventh-round of the NFL Draft.
In his rookie season, Carson played only four games before landing on IR with a broken leg. Since returning in his second season, it has been clear skies. Over the past two seasons, only Ezekiel Elliott has more rushing attempts than Carson. Carson has accounted for 62% of the Seahawks running back carries during that time. He also took a step forward in the passing game in 2019, earning 47 targets for 37 catches, 266 yards, and two TDs.
Over the past two seasons, Carson was the RB14 in PPR scoring formats. Despite “lacking breakaway speed” Carson had the third-most breakaway runs in 2019, along with the sixth-most evaded tackles per player profiler. These numbers are consistent with his 2018 totals, so we can conclude that they are sustainable going forward.
2020 OUTLOOK
Last season the Seahawks trailed at halftime in 11 games, and Russell Wilson willed them back to win in six of those games. This led to Chris Carson seeing the 18th ranked game script per player profiler, despite the Seahawks 11-5 record. I expect the Seahawks to put an emphasis on getting ahead earlier and pounding the rock with Carson this season. This is represented by the Seahawks being favored in 14 games this year with an average line of -5.3 per Warren Sharp.
In the backfield, C.J. Prosise and Marshawn Lynch are no longer on the team. Former first-round draft pick Rashaad Penny suffered a late-season ACL injury and will miss part of the season. The team added only Carlos Hyde in free agency to the mix to take carries away from Carson. The team also drafted Travis Homer in 2019 and DeeJay Dallas in 2020, but the Seahawks rookie running backs haven’t rushed over 100 times since the Thomas Rawls explosion in 2015.
Even if the Seahawks deploy a higher pass rate, which efficiency states they should, Carson would see less overall volume but a more efficient volume (red-zone carries). If the team continues its establish-the-run approach, expect a similar volume and efficiency as the past two seasons.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
Chris Carson will enter the season at 26 years old, which, for a running back, is quite old these days. He is in the last year of his rookie contract, and it is improbable that if he walks as a free agent next season he would land in a better situation. The Seahawks would owe Rashaad Penny over $20 million should they elect to pick up his fifth-year option. Theoretically, if Carson outplays Penny when both are healthy this season, the team would re-sign Carson and let Penny walk. For a running back in dynasty, that is a big if.
Penny has an expansive injury history, as previously noted: the ACL in high school and the broken leg as a rookie. Carson was also put on IR late last season due to a fractured hip, which he did not require surgery for and is expected to be back from to start the season.
Carson Carson currently has an ECR of 74th overall which slides him in as RB27, though he is projected to be ESPN’s RB15. He carries the risk of being a one-year rental at the RB position. This makes him a great target for contenders to trade for, or for startup drafters to consider when deploying a Zero RB strategy. Carson is a solid buy in dynasty for a 2021 second-round rookie pick.
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