I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a series on veteran dynasty WR buys. I started off looking at three buy-high receivers. Then, I moved into the mid-range of dynasty value, beginning with a detailed dive into Tyler Boyd and Michael Gallup. As I referenced in that piece, I believe that the mid-range of dynasty WRs is a value goldmine with so many undervalued players in that group. It’s such a deep and wonderful group that I needed to discuss two further players, Jarvis Landry and Christian Kirk. Then, I went to go into two more players in Brandin Cooks and N’Keal Harry.
Now, it’s time to shift gears. In this piece, I’m going to dig in the dumpster for two undervalued wide receivers that you should buy in dynasty formats. Dynasty owners have left each of these players for dead, and that’s a big mistake. I might look at some more established players in a second part, but I wanted to begin with two second-year players that missed in Year 1.
While both of these players failed to meet expectations at first, they still have some promise. As always, we’re looking for the next D.J. Chark, a second-round receiver that breaks out in Year 2 after doing nothing in Year 1. Hitting on that type of player is one of the quickest ways to inject value into your dynasty team.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
The Eagles drafted J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with the 57th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He was the sixth wide receiver taken after Marquise Brown, N’Keal Harry, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and Mecole Hardman. In college, Arcega-Whiteside played at Stanford, where he led the team in receiving in 2017 and 2018.
However, Arcega-Whiteside didn’t have the profile we would hope for in a top prospect, as he took a while to become a superstar in college. He redshirted his first college season in 2015 before splitting time in 2016. In 2017, he broke out, but only caught 48 passes for 781 yards and nine touchdowns. While he was the best wide receiver on the team, he didn’t receive much dynasty attention and wasn’t a high-end prospect.
Luckily, Arcega-Whiteside took a further step forward in 2018. He improved across the board, with 63 receptions, 1,059 yards, and 14 touchdowns and dominated the team’s receiving game. No other receiver recorded more than 685 yards or seven touchdowns. Most notably, his teammate Trenton Irwin caught 60 receptions, but he only turned those opportunities into 685 yards and two touchdowns. Therefore, Arcega-Whiteside demonstrated a far superior ability to another player despite playing with the same quarterback.
Coming into the NFL Draft process, NFL teams were most interested in Arcega-Whiteside’s contested catch ability and red-zone prowess. He profiled as a big, contested-catch weapon, in the mold of Alshon Jeffery. Interestingly, he joined Jeffery as teammates in Philadelphia. Since Arcega-Whiteside and Jeffery play the same role, most expected Arcega-Whiteside to be the long-term replacement for Jeffery, who had struggled with injuries over the past few seasons. In my 2019 1QB rookie rankings, I ranked Arcega-Whiteside as my 1.11, behind Noah Fant and ahead of Marquise Brown.
Going into the 2019 season, Arcega-Whiteside was a clear backup on the Eagles, behind starters DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery and slot receiver Nelson Agholor. However, even when Jackson went down after Week 1, and both Jeffery and Agholor struggled with their injuries, Arcega-Whiteside still didn’t get much opportunity. He only had 22 targets despite playing all 16 games and also did little with those targets, converting them into only 10 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown. Considering that Arcega-Whiteside came into the NFL as a slightly older rookie, it’s an understatement that he failed to impress or make an impact in Year 1.
Going into 2020, the Eagles spent a first-round pick on Jalen Reagor. While Reagor is also a wide receiver, he plays an entirely different position to Arcega-Whiteside. Reagor is a clear long-term replacement for Jackson as a downfield speed demon. Even though they play different positions, there’s no way to ignore Reagor’s selection as a sign of a lack of confidence in Arcega-Whiteside. Reagor will siphon targets and snaps from Arcega-Whiteside, even as a rookie. The Eagles didn’t draft Reagor in the first round not to use him heavily.
So, given that Arcega-Whiteside was terrible in 2019 and now has increased competition in 2020, why would I then recommend him as a dynasty buy? First, Jeffery might start the season on the PUP list, opening up some targets in the Eagles’ offense. However, my recommendation mostly comes from Arcega-Whiteside’s acquisition cost. I agree that he has lost a lot of his dynasty value. His original price of 1.11 looks like a joke now, and he’s not even worth a second-round pick in the loaded 2020 class.
However, he’s going outside of the top 200 in 1QB dynasty startups. I don’t see how a 2019 second-round NFL Draft pick could have so little value. That valuation essentially prices him at a fourth-round rookie pick, which is typically the value for the deepest of dart throws. I want to make it clear that I would bet against Arcega-Whiteside ever finding fantasy-relevance, and I don’t think he’s ever going to hit. But, I can’t deny that he has upside and that acquiring him has no downside.
Andy Isabella
Like Arcega-Whiteside, Isabella also went in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He went five picks after Arcega-Whiteside with the 62nd overall pick as the eighth receiver selected. Both players were almost the same age, as Andy Isabella is only one month older than Arcega-Whiteside, and both stayed four years in college.
However, their similarities end there. Isabella played against a lower level of competition, as he played at Massachusetts, an Independent team in NCAA FBS. Isabella broke out in his sophomore year, where he caught 62 passes for 801 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added 12 carries for 100 yards, demonstrating an ability to play a variety of offensive roles.
Isabella followed up his strong sophomore campaign with an even better junior year. He had 65 receptions for 1,020 yards and 10 touchdowns. Isabella improved to 15.7 yards/reception and moved past tight end Adam Breneman as the team’s top receiving target. He also continued his rushing usage with 14 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown. While Isabella’s first two seasons were nice, he needed to show more to be a viable prospect from a small school like Massachusetts.
In 2018, he did all that and more. Isabella exploded for 102 receptions, 1,698 yards, and 13 touchdowns. The next-highest player on the team had 419 receiving yards, so Isabella had over four times as many yards as his closest teammate. Those are the kind of numbers that receive attention from the NFL, even coming out of Massachusetts.
However, Isabella still needed to excel at the NFL Combine to solidify his draft stock. He ran a stellar 4.31-second 40-yard dash, the fastest of any wide receiver in 2019. Immediately, he vaulted up the draft board for both the NFL and dynasty owners. During the NFL Draft, the Cardinals traded into the 62nd pick to select Isabella, so he was a priority. New Cardinals’ head coach Kliff Kingsbury planned to run a 4WR base offense, and Isabella was the first receiver he acquired since the Cardinals hired him.
At the time, Isabella joined a relatively barren depth chart of receivers for new quarterback Kyler Murray. The Cardinals’ top two receivers were Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, and they drafted rookies Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson later in the same draft. However, given the 4WR base offense, I expected Isabella to make an immediate impact in Year 1. I thought Isabella would start as a slot receiver alongside Fitzgerald with Kirk and Butler as the top outside receivers.
Unfortunately, Isabella never got that opportunity. He suffered a knee injury during camp and fell behind Johnson and veteran Damiere Byrd on the depth chart. Isabella never found a rhythm, totaling only nine receptions on 13 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown for the season. Even when he was healthy, the Cardinals turned to almost any other player. The Cardinals also moved away from their 4WR base offense and started playing more 3WR sets, reducing Isabella’s opportunity for playing time.
Isabella flashed in Weeks 9 and 10 with four receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown in those two games. I believed that was the beginning of Isabella’s ascension to be the Cardinals’ third receiver behind Kirk and Fitzgerald, and I thought he would become a starter after these two games. Not only did that not happen, but Isabella’s playing time declined back to his pre-breakout levels. He recorded only three more receptions for 15 yards over the rest of the season.
Going into 2020, the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins to be the top receiver. Fitzgerald also re-signed for another season, and Kirk remains on the roster. Therefore, at best, Isabella is the team’s WR4 to open the 2020 season. While it appears on the surface that Isabella has no opportunity to make an impact in 2020, I don’t necessarily agree.
The Cardinals didn’t add any receivers in the 2020 NFL Draft, so they still have some hope from their three 2019 picks. Johnson had a chance and failed already, although Butler missed the entire 2019 season with an injury. After adding Hopkins, I have less hope for Butler to break out, as Butler and Hopkins play a similar role of the big outside target. If the Cardinals return to their 4WR base offense, Fitzgerald will play one of the two slot roles, leaving Kirk and Isabella to alternate between the slot and the outside. Both Kirk and Isabella profile as slot players, but both have the pure speed to play outside.
Either way, I haven’t completely given up on Isabella, considering Kingsbury drafted him just one year ago and traded up to acquire him. Like always, the main reason I want to buy Isabella is due to his price. Like Arcega-Whiteside, Isabella is virtually free in dynasty leagues right now, well outside the top 200 in ADP. Quitting on a talented second-round pick on a potent offense simply due to intense competition for targets is a terrible dynasty process. I didn’t like that Isabella showed almost nothing as a rookie, but I would undoubtedly pay a fourth-round rookie pick to acquire him. There’s never going to be a player in the fourth round in any year with Isabella’s upside.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
