Zack Moss, University of Utah
Zack Moss was taken at Pick 86 in Round 3 by the Buffalo Bills and was the ninth running back off the board. He spent four years at the University of Utah where he ran for 1,416 yards on 235 carries (6.0 yards per carry) and caught 28 passes for 388 yards with 17 total touchdowns during his last year in college.
Athletic Profile
Film Analysis
Running: Watching Zack Moss was very interesting. From a rushing standpoint, he was an absolute menace to tackle. He had fantastic contact balance, excellent vision, pretty good lateral agility, and deceptive top end speed. Originally clocked at 4.65 seconds in the 40 yard dash at the combine, Moss revealed a leg injury and recently reran it clocking in at 4.52 seconds. I take that with a grain of salt because he didn’t really look that fast on the field. Moss showed one habit that normally has scouts in awe: he fell forward gaining extra yards on just about every play that he touched the ball. I saw a lot of hesitation and lack of burst at the line of scrimmage which leads me to believe he will have trouble running outside in the NFL. The biggest concern for me is his running style. He is a violent runner with no awareness for his own health and safety. He was always falling forward on runs because he was the one seeking out contact. He was constantly banged up in college and unless he changes his running style, I just don’t believe he will be able to stay on the field. But if he changes his running style, I’m not sure that leaves much of a draw to teams.
Receiving: Moss showed great hands out of the backfield. He wasn’t split out very often which makes sense because of his lack of speed. As a player that is great at getting yards after contact and has excellent vision, the screen game fits nicely in his wheelhouse. His receiving ability is definitely a plus on tape.
Pass Blocking: Pass protection was pretty good, but at times he kind of looked lazy. He won’t have time to be lazy in the NFL and I think he’ll want to be on the field so I’m not worried about his effort moving forward. Overall Moss is a running back that may need to have his touches monitored long term, but he’s also one of the most likely candidates to have a role on an NFL team in his rookie year.
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Landing Spot Reaction
The Buffalo Bills were middle of the road in terms of run blocking, but they ran the ball the sixth most times in the league last year. A team that focuses on winning games by getting a lead and then letting the defense do the rest of the work is normally a good landing spot. However, Zack Moss will come in to work in a committee with 2019 rookie Devin Singletary. With Josh Allen taking around five carries per game, that leads approximately 380 to be split up between the two backs. I believe the Bills will lean on Singletary early like they did with Gore last year, but then Moss will start getting more playing time as the season progresses. It’s a 55/45 split projection in favor Singletary for next year in an offense that finished 23rd in points per game. Unless Moss can come in and take over the lead role position with Singletary on the roster over the next three years, I don’t see a very high ceiling.
Singletary and Moss are very similar players and they will be splitting carries, so the fantasy impact is evident. Many had hoped that Singletary would be a workhorse this year, but those hopes were erased with the drafting of Moss. Singletary should have a more productive first few games than Moss, so I would try to move him after that.
Dynasty Draft Projection
We saw last year that even the ageless Frank Gore would be utilized more than a fresh rookie until the rookie was caught up to speed. It will be the same this year, and we’ll see Moss have a low ceiling in year one early. Over the next few years. he’ll continue to share the load with Singletary, limiting both in the fantasy world. Moss was getting drafted in the late second round in rookie drafts, and I think he should now fall to the middle of the third. His ceiling isn’t that high and he is constantly hampered by injuries due to his reckless running style. At the end of the second round in this historic class, there will still be picks with a much higher upside in the short-term than Zack Moss.
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