This article is meant to shed light on some of the undervalued and overlooked dynasty sleepers this offseason. Certain players fall off the map during the season and others we forget about once it comes to an end. But, over here at Dynasty Football Factory we always keep our eyes on the prize.
Stay woke DFF Army.
Gardner Minshew (QB – JAX)
Gardner Minshew may not feel like a sleeper to some fantasy owners but he is an afterthought to many in the community. I suspect the majority became wary after he was benched mid-season for Nick Foles, who came back from injury. Foles threw two interceptions in three games and was reacquainted with the bench soon after. Minshew, on the other hand, was phenomenal from start to finish. He started 12 games and threw for 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Minshew completed 22 of 25 passes in his NFL debut, giving him the record for the highest completion percentage (88%) of any player making his debut in NFL history. Not only did he finish the year with a 60.6% completion percentage. But he showed the ability to extend plays, keeping his eyes downfield and finding open receivers while minimizing mistakes. He will, however, need to improve his downfield passing as he maintained one of the lowest yards per pass attempt (7.0) in the league.
Nick Foles four-year, $88 Million contract looms heavy over the Jaguars organization. Cutting or trading him would cost the team anywhere between $18-$33M.
Jacksonville looks to be rebuilding and it would be wise to give Minshew a chance to prove himself while doing so. Foles hasn’t given them much of a reason to stick with him other than the prospective dead money they face in deciding to move on. The entire situation creates an opportunity to buy low on Minshew before he’s named the starter and his value skyrockets. Whether the Jags decide to move on from Foles now or next year, Minshew is the quarterback of the future in Jacksonville and you should acquire him while he remains under the radar.
Justice Hill (RB – BAL)
Justice Hill didn’t get on the field much this season, but when he did, it was clear he can fill a role for the Ravens. He was undersized coming out of Oklahoma State but is a tough rusher with good vision. He showed elusiveness and the ability to catch passes out of the backfield in his limited touches in the NFL. There was the belief that Hill would be the third-down back behind Mark Ingram but that never came to fruition. He finished with 58 rush attempts for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and eight receptions for 70 yards. Hill’s lack of production in his rookie year leaves a window open to buy him at a discount.
Ingram is a 30-year-old running back who we saw wear down at the end of the season. It’s reasonable to expect offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, get the young running back more involved in 2020. I want any piece of that dynamic Ravens offense I can get. You could buy Hill for a 2020 third-round pick or player of the same caliber.
Ronald Jones (RB – TBB)
2020 will be Ronald Jones’s third year in the league but I truly believe he’s a dynasty sleeper. Of course, there are rumors of David Johson making his way to Tampa because of his connection with Bruce Arians from his Cardinals’ days, but I’m not fully convinced. Jones made major strides in 2019 and I don’t think enough noticed. He rushed just 23 times for 44 yards and one score in his rookie season, but he was able to handle much more in his sophomore campaign. He carried the ball 172 times for 724 yards and six touchdowns. He was also able to increase his passing production (31 receptions for 309 yards), a skill required for backs in the Arians offense.
If you caught any Tampa Bay game this year you probably noticed Jones was much more comfortable in the offense and showed some of what everybody was excited about when he entered the league. “Rojo” took a big leap last season and is in a prime position to do it again and take the lead role as a result.
Mecole Hardman (WR – KCC)
Mecole Hardman had his work cut out for him coming into one of the most high-powered passing offenses in the league. He had to prove himself among the likes of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins to get any kind of opportunity. Hardman came on strong with four touchdowns in the first eight games but lost steam towards the end of the season, playing fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps from Week 9 on. He finished with 26 receptions for 538 yards and six touchdowns, good for second on the team in touchdowns among pass catchers.
Hardman was great in short spurts in 2019 but trailed off late in the season, especially in the playoffs. He caught a total of four passes for 29 yards and one run for -6 yards during their Super Bowl run. This put a bad taste in the mouths of fantasy owners, and Hardman has become more of an afterthought than anything as a result. I keep seeing him as a throw-in as part of a package to get dynasty trades done. However, he’s only 21-years-old, produced 20.7 yards per reception in 2019, and is attached to arguably the best quarterback in the league. You can probably snatch him up for a 2020 2nd-round pick.
Let’s also keep in mind the rumor mill is churning. The word is the “Lizard King,” Sammy Watkins, maybe on the outs in Kansas City, possibly even taking the year off. Hardman is a dynasty sleeper right now, but he may not be for long. Get him while you can.
Preston Williams (WR – MIA)
Preston Williams may not be a guy you had on your radar this season and who can blame you? He played for the Miami Dolphins and went undrafted due to his invite to the NFL Draft being revoked following a domestic dispute. He wasn’t even on most NFL teams’ radar. Either way, Williams got his chance and proved his talent transferred well from college to the pros. He finished with 96 receptions for 1,345 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final season at Colorado State University and was on pace for 64 receptions, 856 yards, and six touchdowns if he played a full 16 games. Sadly, his season was cut short after tearing his ACL in Week 9 against the New York Jets. He finished with 32 receptions for 428 yards and three touchdowns.
Williams dynasty value plummeted after the injury, and DeVante Parker broke out as the clear WR1 in the Dolphins offense. The community may also worry he won’t return to the same caliber player after the injury. But we’ve seen receivers come back even stronger time and time again. Cooper Kupp is a prime example.
Williams had, by far, the highest target share (21%) on the team through the first nine weeks and can be acquired for a late-round 2020 pick. Recently, I made a trade in which I sent the 2020 2.10 pick for Preston Williams just the other day. Check out what twitter thought.
Williams will probably be undervalued and overlooked this offseason. If interested, I would get your shares before Miami goes and drafts Tua Tagovailoa or another quarterback in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Foster Moreau (TE – LVR)
I’m going to admit I didn’t realize Foster Moreau caught five touchdowns in 2019 before digging through his numbers. And I bet most of you didn’t either. He’s got to be a candidate for top tight end sleeper this offseason. One of the main reasons is he’s been stashed behind the fantasy TE5, Darren Waller. Waller caught 90 passes for over 1,000 yards but interestingly enough, only caught three total touchdowns. Moreau was third in red zone target share but caught 100% of the red zone targets thrown his way, including all five of his touchdowns.
Tight ends tend to take a few years to break out and Moreau was very average excluding the five touchdowns. He finished with 21 receptions for 174 yards and an 84% catch rate. You can get Moreau for next to nothing right now because most owners likely aren’t aware of his reliable hands and keen ability to find the endzone. You’ll need to wait out Waller, whose already 27 years old. But if you do, you could reap the rewards when he has that infamous year-three breakout.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
