Week 3 gave us something I really like when I am working the C2C waiver wire: roles starting to change.
At this point, I am not just looking for somebody who had one big Saturday. I want to know why it happened. Did the workload change? Are the targets becoming consistent? Is a young player starting to take over a bigger role?
That is where we can get ahead of the rest of our league. The approach stays the same. Win the campus side first. Then I am looking at C2C appreciation, youth, and ceiling.
Every recommendation assumes a $100 C2C FAAB budget.
Overall Waiver Order
- Nolan James Jr., RB, Notre Dame: Add at 18 to 25 percent
- Keyjuan Brown, RB, Louisville: Add at 15 to 22 percent
- Chris Durr Jr., WR, Maryland: Add at 12 to 18 percent
- Aiden Flora, RB, Iowa State: Add at 10 to 16 percent
- Kari Ashley, TE, TCU: Add at 8 to 13 percent
- Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt: Add at 8 to 12 percent
- Justin Bowick, WR, Oklahoma State: Add at 6 to 10 percent
- CJ Baxter Jr., RB, Kentucky: Add at 5 to 9 percent
- Micah Gilbert, WR, Notre Dame: Add at 4 to 8 percent
- Kenny Johnson, WR, Texas Tech: Add at 3 to 6 percent
- Elija Lofton, TE, Miami: Stash at 2 to 5 percent
Quarterbacks
No quarterback makes my waiver list this week. There are quarterbacks worth talking about, but we have already covered the ones who fit what we are trying to do here. I am not going to recycle a name just because he had another good week.
That is part of Always Be Scouting too. We want to find these players before everyone else catches up.
Running Backs
Nolan James Jr., Notre Dame
James is my Final Lock this week. He carried the ball 26 times for 121 yards and 1 touchdown against Michigan State. The 121 yards are nice. The 26 carries are what really got my attention.
That is not a player getting a few touches and breaking one long run. Notre Dame gave James a legitimate workload, and the latest reporting has him moving ahead of Aneyas Williams in the backfield. Now we have something I want to attack.
James can help us win the campus side right now, and if this workload sticks, his C2C value should have room to grow with it. I am not dropping Williams because of one week. That would be an overreaction. But I am absolutely adding James because 26 carries and an expanding role are exactly what we are looking for.
My call: Spend 18 to 25 percent. James is my No. 1 waiver claim this week.
Keyjuan Brown, Louisville
Brown only needed 10 carries to turn in one of the biggest running back performances of the weekend. He rushed for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns against SMU, including a 58-yard run.
10 carries are not enough for me to suddenly call this his backfield. Isaac Brown was available against SMU, so I am not treating Keyjuan like an injury replacement or assuming Isaac is going anywhere. What interests me is what Keyjuan keeps doing when he gets opportunities.
We saw it last season when he rushed for at least 94 yards in each of his final five games while Isaac was injured. Now we have another reminder of what he can do with the football. The next step is getting more touches.
My call: Spend 15 to 22 percent. James has the cleaner workload right now, but Keyjuan has enough upside that I want him rostered before that role potentially gets bigger.
Aiden Flora, Iowa State
Flora might be my favorite C2C value on the entire list. He is a redshirt sophomore who was already being talked about for an increased running back role before the season. Now that opportunity is starting to show up. This is where we have to decide whether we want to wait until everybody believes it or get there first. I would rather get there first.
At only 3 percent rostered on Fantrax, the price has not caught up to the opportunity yet. That is exactly what I am looking for when I talk about C2C asset appreciation. James is ahead because I trust the immediate workload more. Flora might have the better combination of acquisition cost, age, and room for his value to move.
My call: Spend 10 to 16 percent. This is one of my favorite buys of the week.
CJ Baxter Jr., Kentucky
Baxter is more straightforward for me. 19 touches against Texas A&M. That is what I care about.
I am not putting Baxter in the same C2C appreciation category as James or Flora. This is much more about adding a running back who can help us on the campus side. That still matters. Actually, it matters first.
My call: Spend 5 to 9 percent. If you need running back depth and immediate touches, Baxter makes sense.
Wide Receivers
Chris Durr Jr., Maryland
Durr is my WR1 waiver target this week. He has 36 targets through three games. That is an average of 12 targets per game. Now you have my attention.
Against Virginia Tech, Durr caught 12 passes, and those 12 receptions accounted for 40 percent of Maryland’s completed passes. This is not me chasing a receiver because he caught 2 touchdowns on 4 targets. We are buying volume.
Durr has established himself as a major part of Maryland’s passing game, and that gives me something I can trust much more than one explosive Saturday.
My call: Spend 12 to 18 percent. If wide receiver is your biggest need, Durr is my first call.
Junior Sherrill, Vanderbilt
Sherrill caught 6 of 7 targets for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns with Jared Curtis taking over at quarterback. I like the touchdowns. I like the 7 targets more.
Sherrill is sitting at a 30.8 percent target share and averaging 8 targets per game. That gives us something behind the box score that I can actually buy.
The quarterback change is another reason I am watching this closely. If Curtis continues looking Sherrill’s way, we could have a combination that helps us throughout the rest of the campus season.
My call: Spend 8 to 12 percent. Durr is my WR1 because I trust his volume slightly more, but Sherrill is a legitimate add.
Justin Bowick, Oklahoma State
This is why we look deeper than fantasy points. Bowick has run 109 routes through three games. The next Oklahoma State receiver, Chris Barnes, has run 69.
Bowick also has 24 targets, 281 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. That tells me his production is coming with a real role.
I am not trying to predict another monster fantasy week. I am looking at a receiver who is consistently on the field and getting opportunities. That is what I want to buy.
My call: Spend 6 to 10 percent. He is a strong alternative if you miss on Durr or Sherrill.
Micah Gilbert, Notre Dame
Gilbert is my favorite cheap receiver this week. He caught 8 of 9 targets for 170 yards against Michigan State. Normally, that kind of one-week explosion would make me pump the brakes. Then I look at the routes.
Gilbert has run 63 routes compared with 69 for Jordan Faison. He is actually on the field enough for this to become something. I am not starting Gilbert automatically after one game. I am adding him because I want to find out what happens next while he is still free in almost every Fantrax league.
My call: Spend 4 to 8 percent. This is an Always Be Scouting add for me.
Kenny Johnson, Texas Tech
Johnson caught 4 of 8 targets, and all 4 receptions went for at least 20 yards. The bigger reason he makes my list is the role.
Johnson leads the Texas Tech receivers in routes, targets, and receiving yards. That is enough for me to take notice. I still prefer Gilbert as the cheaper C2C swing, but Johnson can absolutely help if this continues.
My call: Spend 3 to 6 percent.
Tight Ends
Kari Ashley, TCU
Ashley is easily my TE1 this week. He caught all 5 of his targets for 87 yards and 1 touchdown against Arkansas State. More importantly, we now have multiple weeks of production.
Through three games, Ashley has 15 receptions for 223 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 targets. That changes the conversation.
Jordan Dwyer still has not played, so I am not pretending nothing can change when TCU gets healthier. But Ashley has done enough with the opportunity that I want him rostered while we find out.
My call: Spend 8 to 13 percent. If you need a tight end, Ashley is the one I am targeting.
Elija Lofton, Miami
Lofton finally gave us more involvement against Wake Forest. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 39 yards and 1 touchdown. That is encouraging.
It is not enough for me to put him anywhere near Ashley yet. I want to see whether those 7 targets are the beginning of a bigger role or simply one week of increased involvement.
My call: Spend 2 to 5 percent as a stash. I am not putting him into my campus lineup yet.
Early Pipeline Targets
Aiden Flora, Iowa State
Flora is my favorite combination of price and potential appreciation. He is still only 3 percent rostered on Fantrax, and the running back opportunity is starting to grow. This is where I want to buy before another productive week makes the decision obvious.
Micah Gilbert, Notre Dame
Gilbert is exactly what I want from a cheap receiver stash. He is running routes; he just earned 9 targets, and he turned those opportunities into 170 yards. Now I want to see him do it again. I would rather have him on my roster while I wait.
Nolan James Jr., Notre Dame
James is already moving beyond the early stash stage. 26 carries will do that. He is here because there is still C2C appreciation available if the role sticks, but unlike most pipeline targets, James can immediately help us win the campus side. That is why he is No. 1.
Injury and Roster Decisions
Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
Lacy left the LSU game after 9 carries for 43 yards and 1 touchdown because of a shoulder injury and did not return. The early news could have been worse. X-rays were negative, but we still do not have a timetable for his return.
My call: Hold Lacy and monitor his status throughout the week. I am not making a move based on guessing how much time he could miss.
EJ Crowell and Daniel Hill, RB, Alabama
This is one of the biggest backfields I am watching this week. Both Crowell and Hill left Alabama’s win over Florida State and did not return. Crowell is currently listed as questionable, but we do not have a confirmed diagnosis or Week 4 status for either player.
You already know how I feel about Crowell. He remains my RB1 in this freshman class and my overall RB1 in C2C. One injury does not change that. Hill was our final lock last week because of his immediate campus opportunity, so having both backs leave the same game makes this a situation we have to follow closely.
My call: Hold both. I am not dropping Crowell or Hill, and I am not chasing another Alabama back until we know more about their availability.
Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown, RB, Miami
Miami is the other backfield we need to watch. Fletcher left the Wake Forest game with an upper-body injury and was taken to the locker room. Brown also left the game with a lower-body injury.
We do not have a confirmed timetable for either player, so I am not going to guess about who will be available or how Miami will divide the backfield next week.
My call: Hold both and watch the practice reports. If either player is going to miss time, this could create a waiver opportunity, but I want confirmation before spending FAAB.
Final Take
Nolan James Jr. is my Final Lock.
26 carries for 121 yards and 1 touchdown got my attention, but this is about more than one box score. The workload changed. That is what I want to attack.
James gives us the best combination this week of something we can use on the campus side right now while still leaving room for his C2C value to grow if he continues leading the Notre Dame backfield.
Keyjuan Brown is right behind him. I am not calling him Louisville’s RB1, but every time this kid gets an opportunity, he reminds us what he can do with it.
Chris Durr Jr. is my receiver to target. Give me 12 targets per game and a major role in the passing game. I will take that over chasing touchdowns.
Aiden Flora is the one I really want to get ahead of. The roster percentage is still tiny, the opportunity is growing, and I do not want to wait until everybody else sees it too.
If James is already rostered, this is my order
- Keyjuan Brown for running back upside
- Chris Durr Jr. for immediate receiver volume
- Aiden Flora for the combination of campus opportunity and C2C appreciation
Final Lock: Nolan James Jr.
Best running back alternative: Keyjuan Brown
Best receiver addition: Chris Durr Jr.
Best C2C value: Aiden Flora
Best cheap receiver: Micah Gilbert
Best tight end addition: Kari Ashley
Do not chase one big Saturday. Chase the opportunity that can give us another one.
Stay ready. Stay early. Win Now, Brag Later. Always Be Scouting.
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